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Atlanta Marriott Marquis, A602
Society of Policy Modeling
The Challenge to the Postwar Liberal Trade System
Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM
- Chair: Dominick Salvatore, Fordham University
The European Union in the Crisis of the Global Liberal Order
AbstractThe European Union and its Member States have greatly benefited from the global liberal order created in the aftermath of WWII. The very structure of the European Union -based on integration, cooperation, coordination and political compromise- fits particularly well in a rule-based international system. However, the recent rise in trade tensions and the multiplication of unilateral measures is undermining this system and favoring the rise of a bilateral managed trade order. These developments represent a significant challenge for the EU. While a bilateral managed system is sub-optimal in general, it is even more damaging for the European Union. To ensure the preservation and the strengthening over time of the global liberal order, for the EU it is not sufficient to continue to simply adhere to its principles. It also needs to put forward suggestions to make it fairer and more inclusive. However, its proposals and actions can be credible only if first addresses its internal vulnerabilities and fixes its institutional architecture, as its domestic weaknesses and fault lines inevitably limit its external credibility, effectiveness.and ability to act.
Global Adjustment to Disengagement of the United States from the World Trading
AbstractUS threats of trade wars, withdrawal from existing trade agreements, and expanded import protection is leading to retaliation from its trading partners. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the existing system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We consider a variety of disengagement scenarios using a global CGE model. We find that the relative role of the US in world trade has been declining over the past thirty-forty years, with expansion of the roles of the EU and East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia. Global adjustment to US disengagement is feasible—the changes in trade shares as countries adjust are modest and achievable.
Global Implications of U.S. Trade Policies for Reducing Structural Trade Imbalances
AbstractThe recovery of the world economy from the recent global financial crisis and Great Recession was generally slower than the recoveries after previous crisis and recession. One reason for this was the reduction in the growth of world trade in relation to the growth of world GDP, as compared to the decade before the crisis. World growth is likely to be even slower in the years to come as a result of the rising trade protectionism by the United States under Trump (and likely retaliation from other countries).
City University of New York
- F1 - Trade
- F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy