This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

« Back to Results

Climate Change Adaptation

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 4, 2019 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

Atlanta Marriott Marquis, International 8
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Catherine Wolfram, University of California-Berkeley

Air Conditioning and Global Energy Consumption

Lucas Davis
,
University of California-Berkeley
Paul J. Gertler
,
University of California-Berkeley
Catherine Wolfram
,
University of California-Berkeley

Abstract

Air conditioning usage is increasing rapidly around the world, as global temperatures go up and incomes rise. In this paper we use household-level microdata from 15 countries to characterize empirically the relationship between climate, income, and residential air conditioning. We find that both climate and income are important in predicting air conditioner adoption, as well as the interaction between the two. We then combine these estimates with predicted temperature increases and income growth to forecast future air conditioning adoption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm middle-income areas by 2030. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. The paper illustrates the large potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

Moral Hazard, Wildfires, and Adaptation to Climate Change

Patrick Baylis
,
University of British Columbia
Judson Boomhower
,
University of California-San Diego

Abstract

We measure the degree to which large government expenditures on wildland fire protection subsidize development in high risk locations. A substantial share of the total social costs of wildfires comes from federal firefighting efforts that prevent or reduce property loss. We assemble administrative data from multiple state and federal agencies to calculate the expected cost to the government of protecting at-risk homes from wildfire, in great spatial detail and for the entire western United States. To do so, we first measure the causal impact on firefighting costs when homes are built in harm's way. We then add up historical protection expenditures incurred on behalf of each home and calculate an actuarial measure of expected future cost. This measure is increasing in fire risk and surprisingly steeply decreasing in development density. In high-cost areas, the expected present value of fire protection exceeds 10% of a home's transaction value. We consider the potential for these subsidies to distort location choice, development density, and private investments in risk reduction.

Malthus in Africa? Positive and Preventive Checks on Population in a Changing Climate

Kyle Meng
,
University of California-Santa Barbara
Tom Vogl
,
Princeton University

Abstract

Current efforts to understand the social and economic impacts of climate change often overlook the potential mediating role of demographic feedback, despite its importance in Malthusian theory. How relevant is the Malthusian model in the poorest economies today, and where within them is it most relevant? We shed light on these questions by estimating fertility and mortality responses to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa over half a century. To understand the roles of adaptation and liquidity constraints in driving our results, we distinguish responses to weather fluctuations from responses to longer-run climate change. We also investigate whether the responses vary across space, allowing us to locate the areas most consistent with Malthusian theory.
Discussant(s)
Tamma Carleton
,
University of Chicago
Laura Bakkensen
,
University of Arizona
Jisung Park
,
University of California-Los Angeles
JEL Classifications
  • Q5 - Environmental Economics
  • D0 - General