Macro-Finance: Collateral and Currency Markets
Friday, Jan. 4, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM
- Chair: Ryan Chahrour, Boston College
Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
AbstractWe develop a theory that links foreign investors' demand for the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds to the value of the dollar in spot markets. An increase in the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. Treasury’s induces an immediate appreciation of the US dollar and, going forward, lowers the expected return to a foreign investor from owning Treasury bonds. Under our theory, we show that the foreign convenience yield can be measured by the `Treasury basis,' defined as the wedge between the yield on foreign government bonds and the currency-hedged yield on U.S. Treasury bonds. We measure the convenience yield using data from a cross-country panel going back to 1988 and the US/UK cross going back to 1970. In both datasets, regression evidence strongly supports the theory. Our results help to resolve the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: The Treasury basis variation accounts for up to 41% of the quarterly variation in the dollar. Our results also provide support for recent theories which ascribe a special role to the U.S. as a provider of world safe assets.
Collateral Booms and Information Depletion
AbstractWe develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. In our model, entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources towards private consumption. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways: collateralization and costly screening, which generates durable information about projects. In equilibrium, the collateralization-screening mix depends on the value of aggregate collateral. High collateral values raise investment and economic activity, but they also raise collateralization at the expense of screening. This has important dynamic implications. During credit booms driven by high collateral
values (e.g. real estate booms), the economy accumulates physical capital but depletes information about investment projects. As a result, collateral-driven booms end in deep crises and slow recoveries: when booms end, investment is constrained both by the lack of collateral and by the lack of information on existing investment projects, which takes time to rebuild. We provide new empirical evidence using US firm-level data in support of the model's main mechanism.
Exchange Rate Supply and Demand: Who Moves Exchange Rates?
AbstractExchange rates, as any other market-driven price, are determined by an equilibrium of supply and demand. Based on a model of currency derivatives markets with heterogeneous agents, which is strongly supported by the data, we present a novel empirical exchange rate decomposition. Using this model, we can attribute most of the variation in exchange rate changes to broker-dealer clients' currency expectations and hedging demand for over-the-counter currency derivative contracts and, to a lesser extent, to momentum trading by speculators in currency futures markets. We use this decomposition to shed light on the key drivers behind policy-relevant exchange rate movements such as the appreciation of the US dollar at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis.
Paper available at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/4qfzv8fgx2n8awi/StavrakevaTang2018_SupplyDemand.pdf
- F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit