Banking and the Real Economy
Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM
- Chair: Juliane Begenau, Harvard Business School
A Positive Analysis of Bank Behaviour Under Capital Requirements
AbstractWe propose a theory of bank behaviour under capital requirements that accounts for both risk shifting incentives and debt overhang considerations. A key result is that the bank’s lending response to an increase in the requirement need not be negative. The sign and the magnitude of the response depend on the bank’s balance sheet and economic prospects, and lending is typically U-shaped in the requirement. Using UK regulatory data, we find empirical support for the hypothesis that a bank mainly adjusts to a higher requirement by cutting lending when expected returns are low, but by raising capital when they are high.
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
AbstractForeign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated primarily in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME borrowers face a 32-percentage-point greater increase in the volume of loans issued by foreign banks than borrowers from developed markets face, with a similarly large effect upon reversal of the U.S. monetary policy stance. This result is robust across different geographical regions and industries, and holds for non-U.S. lenders, including those with little direct exposure to the U.S. economy. Local EME lenders do not offset the foreign bank capital flows; thus, U.S. monetary policy affects credit conditions for EME firms. We show that the spillover is stronger in higher-yielding and more financially open markets, and for firms with a higher reliance on foreign bank credit.
- G2 - Financial Institutions and Services