Developing Country Conflict
Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM
- Chair: Carlos Seiglie, Rutgers University
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
AbstractIn recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
First and Second Generation Impacts of the Biafran War
AbstractWe analyze long-term impacts of the 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War, providing the first evidence of intergenerational impacts. Women exposed to the war in their growing years exhibit reduced adult stature, increased likelihood of being overweight and obese, and earlier age at first birth. Exposure to a primary education program mitigates impacts of war exposure on education. War exposed men marry later and have fewer children. War exposure of mothers (but not fathers) has adverse impacts on next-generation child growth, survival, and education. Impacts vary with age of exposure. For mother and child health, the largest impacts stem from adolescent exposure.
Labor Supply and Well-being Responses to Mass-shooting
AbstractA small but significant literature concludes that terrorism impacts the economy. The impact of mass-shooting has not yet been addressed by economists and we argue that they, too, are likely to affect economic behavior, possibly in ways similar to terrorism. We study the economic effects of the tragic 2012 Sandy Hook School Shooting, in which 20 children and 6 staff members were killed. Security measures put in place thereafter may have led to a slowing of economic activity (Todd Sandler and Walter Enders, 2012). Massive media coverage may contribute to affect individuals far beyond those directly hit by a tragedy, in line with evidence from Israel that media coverage largely contributes to the impact of fatal attacks on consumer behavior (Gary Becker and Yona Rubinstein, 2011), and the SHSS was on the New York Times front-page for 8 consecutive days. In particular, in the aftermath of the SHSS, multiple gun-control laws were proposed at the federal and state level. We here exploit data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and Well-Being (WB) module, collected on a daily basis for a representative random sample of the American population, to estimate the effect of SHSS on individual labor supply and emotional well-being. Fatal attacks are rare on any given day, and to estimate their effects we combine RDD with differences-in-differences, setting similar calendar days on a different year as the control group. We find a decline of over half an hour per day in average hours worked immediately after SHSS. The findings are mixed for the impact of SHSS on subjective well-being, as negative and positive affect feelings reacted in somewhat opposite directions. We discuss these differences against economic, a priori, and drive conclusions that may be relevant for policy.
- F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
- I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty