Old and Modern Wars: New Considerations
Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM
- Chair: Solomon W. Polachek, State University of New York-Binghamton
War, Migration and the Origins of the Thai Sex Industry
AbstractThis paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990s.
Cyber Attacks: Preliminary Evidence From the Bank of Italy's Business Surveys
AbstractThis paper presents preliminary evidence on cyber risk in the Italian private sector based on the Bank of Italy’s annual surveys of Italian industrial and service firms. The information collected, albeit only covering the incidence of cyber attacks and some aspects of security governance, is the first of its kind for Italy. The results are striking: even though a mere 1.5 per cent of businesses do not deploy any cybersecurity measures, 30.3 per cent – corresponding to 35.6 per cent of total employees – report at least some damage from a cyber attack between September 2015 and September 2016. Once data are corrected to account for unwillingness to report or inability to detect attacks on the part of some respondents, these figures climb to 45.2 and 56 per cent respectively, with large, high-tech and internationally exposed businesses faring worse than average. The economy-wide risk level is likely to be higher still; the financial sector, healthcare, education and social care are excluded from the sample, but they are known from other sources to be particularly appealing to attackers. Further research is needed on the correlation between firm-level vulnerability and investment in cyber defence, and on the cost of cyber breaches.
No Kin In The Game? Moral Hazard and War in the United States Congress
AbstractWhy do costly wars occur? We exploit a natural experiment to examine one popular but previously untested hypothesis: that leaders who order war stand to reap the benefits without fully internalizing the costs. We test this moral hazard theory of conflict by analyzing the roll call votes of US congresspeople over the four conscription-era wars in the 20th century: World War I, World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War. By comparing the voting behavior of those who have sons exposed to the draft against those who have daughters of comparable age, we can determine whether or not political agency problems cause violent conflict. We find that, conditional on legislator fixed effects and total number of children, those who have sons of draft age are around 10-15% less likely to vote to enact or expand conscription than those in the control group. The results identify an important cause of political violence, while also highlighting the role of private incentives in public office.
- F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
- I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty