Omicron Delta Epsilon Graduate Student Session
Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM
- Chair: Stacey Jones, Seattle University
Consequences of Space and Species Aggregation in Welfare Estimates of Invasive Species
AbstractA computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to assess the current threat in Lake Michigan of bighead carp, a non-indigenous aquatic invasive species (AIS) projected to have spatially-explicit and species-specific impacts on the environment and the economy. The CGE model is designed to link spatial biomass data from the Atlantis ecosystem model of Lake Michigan with recreational fishing behavior and the broader economy. Forecasted effects from the AIS on biomass levels of sport-fishing species across time and space are heterogenous and impact fisherman's decisions regarding when, where, and what species to fish. Their decisions are modeled using a spatially-explicit, zone-level application of the household production function approach. After generating the welfare implications from the explicit space and species model, the results are compared to other simulated versions of the model, with the focus being to uncover any biases that may exist in welfare estimates when space or species level information is ignored. Versions differ only in levels of aggregation over space and/or species. Preliminary results indicate that aggregating over one or both underestimates welfare impacts by failing to account for important tradeoffs between ecological and economic systems. The welfare discrepancies are most pronounced for the models that ignore species-specific preferences.
Effect of Merger on Market Price and Product Quality: American and US Airways
AbstractIn this paper, I analyze the effect of the merger between American
Airlines (AA) & US Airways (US) on market price and product
quality. I use two complementary methodologies: difference in difference
and merger simulation. The difference-in-differences analysis
(DID) shows that the price has decreased and the decrease in price
is larger in bigger city-pair markets. Slot divestiture also has been
helpful in reducing the price. The DID analysis also shows that the
merger has no significant effect on frequency of flights, number of
seats, delay in arrival, and delay in departure. The merger has significant
effect in reducing number of canceled flights in larger markets.
The merger simulation estimates a discrete choice structural model of
consumer demand to predict the post-merger price and compares the
predicted post-merger price and pre-merger price. I find that change
in ownership leads to a 3% increase in price. The structural model
performs better in predicting the post-merger price if deviation from
the Bertrand-Nash conduct is allowed. A 10% cost reduction due to
merger is able to predict the post-merger price quite accurately.
An Analysis of Multiple Treatments on Recidivism
AbstractNumerous institutional programs are implemented to reduce the propensity of post-release reoffending, and many are identified as effective evidence-based interventions. The majority of prior program evaluations, however, focus on identifying the intend-to-treat effect of a single specific intervention. Since offenders generally participate in more than one program, little is known of the joint effect of multiple program assignments. Therefore, we identify the treatment effect of various combinations of institutional programs on different recidivistic outcomes, including reconviction, revocation, and any return to prison, within two years of offenders’ release. Based on pairwise matching of offenders, our results from logistic regression report that programs that are closely connected with one another exhibit more significant interaction effects than programs that are loosely connected. Therefore, our study proposes a new conceptual framework on program evaluation for economists, social scientists, policymakers, and the corrections community to rationalize program administration in attenuating recidivism.
- A1 - General Economics
- D0 - General