Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act
Friday, Jan. 6, 2017 3:15 PM – 5:15 PM
- Chair: Katherine Swartz, Harvard University
Effects of the ACA Medicaid Expansions on Health Insurance Coverage and Labor Supply
AbstractWe examine the effect of the expansion of Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act on health insurance coverage and labor supply of adults with a high school education or less. We found that the Medicaid expansions increased Medicaid coverage by approximately 4 percentage points, decreased the proportion uninsured by approximately 3 percentage points, and decreased private health insurance coverage by 1 percentage point. The Medicaid expansions had little effect on labor supply as measured by employment, usual hours worked per week and the probability of working 30 or more hours per week. Most estimates suggested that the expansions increased employment slightly, although not significantly.
Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Part-time Employment: Early Evidence
AbstractThe ACA requires that employers with at least 50 full-time equivalent employees offer employees working 30 or more hours per week "affordable" health insurance. If employers do not comply with the mandate, they may face substantial financial penalties. Although the ACA could significantly improve compensation for many workers, especially low-wage workers, it has sparked concern that employers will circumvent the mandate by reducing weekly hours below the 30-hour threshold or by using other non-standard employment arrangements (e.g., direct-hire temporaries, agency temporaries, small contractors, and independent contractors). In this paper, we examine the effects of the ACA on short-hours, part-time employment, using monthly CPS data. Our empirical strategy employs Hawaii "which has had a more stringent employer health insurance mandate than that in the ACA for several decades as a control group. Using difference-in-difference and triple-difference specifications, we estimate that the ACA resulted in an increase in low-hours, involuntary part-time employment by a half million to a million in retail, accommodations, and food services“ the sectors where, in previous work we argued, employers are most likely reduce hours if they choose to circumvent the mandate. Our findings are robust to placebo tests and alternative specifications.
The Affordable Care Act and the Growth of Involuntary Part-Time Employment
AbstractThis study tests whether the employer mandate under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased involuntary part-time (IPT) employment. Using data from the Current Population Survey between 1994 and 2014, we find that IPT employment in 2014 was higher than predicted based on economic conditions and the composition of jobs and workers in the labor market. More importantly, using difference-in-difference methods, we find that the increase in the probability of IPT employment since 2010 was greatest in the industries and occupations where workers were most likely to be affected by the mandate. We also show that there has been virtually no change in the probability of IPT employment where the number of workers affected by the mandate was small. We estimate that approximately 1 million additional workers between the ages of 19 and 64 are in IPT employment as a result of the ACA employer mandate.
- J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor