Crime and Punishment
Paper Session
Monday, Jan. 5, 2026 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)
- Chair: David Abrams, University of Pennsylvania
The Departed: Origins and Persistence of Organized Crime in the United States
Abstract
This paper provides evidence of the institutional continuity between the ``old world" Sicilian mafia and the mafia in America. We examine the migration to the United States of mafiosi expelled from Sicily in the 1920s following Fascist repression lead by Cesare Mori, the so-called ``Iron Prefect''. Using historical US administrative records and FBI reports from decades later, we provide evidence that expelled mafiosi settled in pre-existing Sicilian immigrant enclaves, contributing to the rise of the American La Cosa Nostra (LCN). Our analysis reveals that a significant share of future mafia leaders in the US originated from neighborhoods that had hosted immigrant communities originating in the 32 Sicilian municipalities targeted by anti-mafia Fascist raids decades earlier. Future mafia activity is also disproportionately concentrated in these same neighborhoods. We then explore the socio-economic impact of organized crime on these communities. In the short term, we observe increased violence in adjacent neighborhoods, heightened incarceration rates, and redlining practices that restricted access to the formal financial sector. However, in the long run, these same neighborhoods exhibited higher levels of education, employment, and social mobility, challenging prevailing narratives about the purely detrimental effects of organized crime. Our findings contribute to debates on the persistence of criminal organizations and their broader economic and social consequences.Estimating Dark Figures: An Application to Cybercrime
Abstract
The dark figure of cyber attacks on firms is the percentage of cybercrime attacks unreported to authorities, either because undetected by the concerned company, or because deliberately concealed from stakeholders. The observed time series of cyber attacks is the intersection between occurred and reported incidents. It is unclear if a change in the rate of reported incidents is due to a change in the number of attacks, or a change in firms reporting. Factors driving cybercrime (e.g., technological advancements, political stability) differ from factors driving reporting (e.g., regulation or (corporate) governance). The difficulty is to separate incidents from reporting, impeding prediction and quantification. We introduce a novel methodology for dark figure estimation, separating offenses from reporting.Implementing a two-stage probit model based on Maximum Likelihood estimation, instrumenting for policy changes and firm characteristics affecting reporting and cybercrime, we derive the percentage of potentially attacked out of all firms incorporated in the same legal system. To show the validity of our estimator, we first apply it successfully on a simulated ground-truth dataset of firms being attacked and not attacked with some of them reporting.
We then apply the estimator on a sample of cybercrime cases for the Swiss Canton St Gallen, where a yearly rate of 0.23% companies reported incidents between 2015 and 2023. Based on this percentage, we estimate that 8.9% of the companies incorporated in the Canton St Gallen have been attacked per year. This constitutes a dark rate of 97.42%. We also apply the method on cybercrime cases for Canton Zug, where a yearly rate of 0.09% of the companies reported incidents between 2015 and 2024. For Canton Zug, we estimate that 9.2% of companies incorporated have been attacked per year. This constitutes a dark rate of 99.02%.
Guns, Law Enforcement, and Death in the United States of America
Abstract
The availability of firearms in the United States is thought to be a significant cause of homicide and suicide in the United States. However, due to data limitations, many consider the relationship an open question. Using data from multiple sources, we find a strong, consistent positive relationship between firearms and firearm-related outcomes using a variety of methods. We also present evidence of a negative relationship between active policing and homicide. Last, we show that active policing will mitigate firearm-related harms, but only those related to criminal activity.Political Responses to Hate Crimes
Abstract
We investigate how targeted groups react politically to racially motivated hate crimes within their communities. Combining incident-level administrative data on hate crimes in Los Angeles County from 2014 to 2022 with individual voter files, we exploit the hyperlocal variation in the geography and timing of these crimes. We find that serious anti-Hispanic hate crimes increase voter turnout among nearby Hispanics by 1.6 percentage points compared to nearby Whites. Communities with dense Hispanic populations and Hispanic advocacy and community service organizations are primarily responsible for this mobilization effect. Moreover, we demonstrate that hate crimes are associated with shifts in voters' policy preferences, particularly in the areas of crime prevention and affirmative action. Despite this, we do not find any significant differences in political participation among Black and Asian American communities following anti-Black and anti-Asian hate crimes, respectively. Los Angeles County's large Hispanic population and extensive network of community organizations may play an important role in fostering mobilization.The Heterogeneous Effects of Optional Oversight: Evidence from Police Body-Worn Cameras
Abstract
We study body-worn cameras (BWCs), the decision to activate them, and their effects on police behavior. Using novel data on BWC activation for specific officers and arrests in Chicago, we find large differences in activation rates between police officers that cannot be explained by the policing environment, suggesting that many officers strategically fail to activate. We develop a model of strategic activation that suggests that officers who underactivate will also make fewer arrests when given BWCs. We confirm this using the staggered rollout of body-worn cameras across districts between 2016 and 2017. Overall arrest rates are unaffected, but officers who activate less and officers with high prior complaint rates both reduce their arrests. Finally, using variation in daily assignments of police officers to managers, we find that managers who produce higher activation rates also produced lower arrests and use of force rates following BWC rollout.JEL Classifications
- K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior