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Biodiversity Tradeoffs

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 5, 2026 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)

Philadelphia Convention Center, 307-AB
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Frederik Noack, University of British Columbia

The Economic Costs of Climate Change from Ecosystem Disruptions: Evidence from Forest Defoliation Outbreaks in the United States

Sushant Banjara
,
University of Chicago
Greg Dwyer
,
University of Chicago
Eyal Frank
,
University of Chicago
Andrew Liebhold
,
U.S. Department of Agriculture

Abstract

How will climate change affect human well-being through the channel of ecosystem functioning? Here we study how the weather-dependent interactions between two natural enemies, an invasive forest pest and a fungal pathogen that parasites it, drive tree defoliation events. Our analysis uses the variation in the population levels of the forest pest to identify the damages from defoliation. We find that property values in the vicinity of defoliated areas sell for two to five percent less, and document an increase in wildfire damages, albeit imprecisely, following the expansion of the forest pest into new areas. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will have additional economic impacts that operate through ecological channels, beyond the direct effects that are well-studied in the literature.

How Biodiversity Protections Affect Housing Markets

Golnaz Bahrami
,
Pennsylvania State University
Matthew Gustafson
,
Pennsylvania State University
Eva Steiner
,
Pennsylvania State University

Abstract

Biodiversity protections increasingly shape land use in developed areas, but their effects on housing markets remain poorly understood. This paper investigates how land use restrictions aimed at conservation influence housing market outcomes across the U.S. We compile a parcel-level panel combining geospatial data on biodiversity protections with housing transactions, property values, and characteristics over the past two decades. Using a combination of regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs, we estimate the causal effects of biodiversity protections on property values, characteristics, and liquidity. This analysis aims to inform the evaluation of conservation policies by quantifying their local economic impacts in the housing market.

Cows and Trees

Skand Goel
,
New York University
Ted Rosenbaum
,
Federal Trade Commission
Paul T. Scott
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues
,
University of Toronto

Abstract

The Brazilian Amazon plays a crucial role in regulating global climate and preserving biodiversity, yet it faces mounting pressures from deforestation driven by cattle ranching. The expansion of pastures, fueled by global beef demand, is shaped by the dual role of cattle as both consumption good and capital stock. This duality leads to nontrivial dynamic responses. To address this, we develop a structural model to examine how ranchers' land use decisions respond to short- and long-term beef price changes, accounting for deforestation costs, herd dynamics, and price expectations. Using panel data from 2000--2020, the model estimates reveal that deforestation is inelastic to temporary shocks on beef prices but highly elastic to permanent price changes. We also show how conventional reduced-form regressions fail to distinguish between short- and long-run effects. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for long-term dynamics in policy evaluations, particularly for interventions targeting deforestation and carbon emissions.

Biodiversity Conservation Policy Unintentionally Boosted Science Research

Minhao Chen
,
Renmin University of China
Will Cong
,
Nanyang Technological University
Haoyu Gao
,
Renmin University of China
Andrew Karolyi
,
Cornell University
Hui Wang
,
Renmin University of China

Abstract

The implementation of the seasonal fishing ban along the Yangtze River since 2003 has successfully preserved fishery resources as originally intended, yet their broader implications remain poorly understood. Using a difference-in-differences design, we provide the earliest causal evidence of how local biodiversity conservation policies affect science and innovation, in unintended and serendipitous ways. The analysis reveals that the ban spurred more quality research inquiries about Yangtze River fish: Funded programs doubled and funding amounts more than tripled. Scientific output grew dramatically, with publications more than tripled, citations augmented more than five-fold, and related books, patents, awards, and public influence significantly increased. We attribute these increases to the enhanced availability of biological research materials (in both quantity and diversity), rather than other attention-based or policy-based channels. We conclude that preserving nature is not only an ecological duty but also potentially a strategic investment in the future of science and innovation.

Discussant(s)
Christopher Timmins
,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Yuanning Liang
,
Peking University
Allan Hsiao
,
Stanford University
Eric Zou
,
University of Michigan
JEL Classifications
  • Q0 - General
  • G0 - General