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News Accuracy

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Union Square 21
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Michael Sinkinson, Northwestern University

Fake It till You Make It: Behind the Scenes of Bot-Driven Popularity

Manu Singh Burson
,
Columbia University

Abstract

Can social media popularity be bought, and do these numbers reflect voters' interest? In this paper, I argue yes to both. Bots can artificially inflate a candidate's popularity, and their influence is hard to fact-check. I propose a novel framework linking bot activity to real-world news coverage. Using the `Botometer' algorithm, I estimate bot prevalence among 432 U.S. congress members on Twitter. To establish causality, I leveraged the exogenous shock caused by infrastructure changes to the Twitter API in November 2022, which significantly hindered bot functionality. The first stage results demonstrate that the API disruptions led to a substantial reduction in followers exclusively for those politicians who were high bot users. This decline was not observed in panel data of Facebook `likes' and Instagram follower numbers. Finally, I evaluate the impact of fewer bots on politicians' popularity in both online and broadcast TV news from Dec 2022 to August 2023 and detect a decline only for politicians who were high bot users. These effects are only noticeable on mainstream channels like CNN, MSNBC, and FOX News, not on Fox Business, Bloomberg, and CSPAN.

Fake News: Susceptibility, Awareness and Solutions

Stefanie jeanette Huber
,
University of Bonn
Tiziana Assenza
,
Toulouse School of Economics
Alberto Cardaci
,
Goethe University, Frankfurt

Abstract

This paper investigates and quantifies citizens’ susceptibility to fake news and assesses, using a randomized control trial, the effectiveness of a policy intervention to raise awareness. We find that the average citizen lacks proficiency in identifying fake news and harbors an inflated perception of his/her ability to differentiate between true and fake news content. Increasing awareness by providing information about personal susceptibility to fall for fake news causally adjusts individuals’ beliefs about their fake news detection ability. Most importantly, we show that the simple intervention of informing citizens about their personal susceptibility to fall for fake news causally increases their willingness to pay for the fact-checking service.

Screen vs Scene: Impact of News and TV on Belief Formation

Marta Justyna Boczon
,
Copenhagen Business School
Natalia Khorunzhina
,
Copenhagen Business School

Abstract

This study examines the influence of news and television on belief formation. We analyze public beliefs using data from an online survey of a nationally representative US sample, comparing the results with both current and historical news, and content from popular media. We focus on the influence of streaming movies and TV shows in the US to see how media shapes opinions. By explicitly modeling belief updating we further enhance our understanding of these processes. Our findings suggest that popular culture, including both fictional and non-fictional content, significantly influences people's views. This research highlights the significant effect media representations of issues like terrorism, COVID-19, global warming, and international relations.

Technological Advance, Intellectural Property Rights and Media Bias: Evidence from China's Newspaper Industry

Lingtian Bu
,
Renmin University of China
Meng Miao
,
Renmin University of China

Abstract

The advance of information technologies has not fortify democracy as once anticipated, but instead witnesses increased political polarization, a revival of nationalism, and a resurgence of strongman rule. These changes in the political landscape can be partially attributed to new technologies' impact on the media sector that changes public attitudes. In China, the political centralization after 2013 can relate to the pro-government bias displayed by the media around the same time. However, why do technological advancements lead to media adopting a more pro-government stance?

While censorship is a notable way technology affects the media, this paper focuses on a different challenge: the poorly enforced intellectual property rights amid newspapers' shift to digital. During this digital shift, platforms like Toutiao, sharing ownership with TikTok, blatantly scrape online newspaper content to attract traffic. The Chinese government's lenient stance on copyright infringements, coupled with minimal penalties, essentially endorses this practice. As Toutiao becomes a primary news source, newspapers find themselves cornered into selling their content at minimal prices, forfeiting their ability to monetize online content. This forces reliance on local government subsidies, significantly biasing their reporting in favor of the government.

Utilizing the regional variances in China's 3G coverage, this study explores the impact of 3G technology on local newspapers’ political leanings. Adopting the methodology from Qin et al. (2018), we develop an index to measure newspapers' political bias by categorizing content into themes such as government-endorsed reporting, sensitive or negative coverage, and commercial content. Our analysis shows that the rollout of 3G significantly reduces the revenue newspapers earn from print sales, with only minimal gains in online revenue. The reliance on government subsidies as a result leads to an increase in political bias. We employ the frequency of local lightning strikes as an instrumental variable to mitigate endogeneity concerns.
JEL Classifications
  • D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty