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Lessons on Income Support

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Golden Gate 4
Hosted By: American Economic Association & Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession
  • Chair: Sarah Reber, Brookings Institution

Income During Infancy Reduces Criminal Activity of Fathers and Children: Evidence from a Discontinuity in Tax Benefits

Sakshi Bhardwaj
,
University of Illinois

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal effect of providing income to low-income families just after childbirth on the criminal justice involvement of families. I employ a regression discontinuity design using the fact that children born to low-income families before year-end can be claimed as dependents on that year's tax returns, resulting in significantly larger tax refunds during the child's first year compared to families with January-born children. Utilizing linked administrative data on birth records and criminal justice involvement from a large U.S. metropolitan county, I find that eligibility for additional income during the first year of parenthood reduces the likelihood of a criminal charge for fathers by 1.2 percentage points (57%) within one year after childbirth. The effect persists for up to ten years after childbirth. The immediate decrease in criminal charges for fathers is particularly evident in income-generating offenses such as robbery, theft, as well as drug possession, and driving under the influence. The effect also extends to the criminal activity of children. Male children born before January 1 have a reduced likelihood of having any juvenile justice case during their teenage years and a reduced likelihood of incarceration in their adult years.

How Does the Child Tax Credit Change the Time Allocation of Parents: Evidence from American Time Use Data

Yang Jiao
,
Texas A&M University-Texarkana
Tennecia Dacass
,
Central Washington University
Elif B. Dilden
,
Rockhurst University

Abstract

The Child Tax Credit (CTC) plays a pivotal role in reducing child poverty rates and ensuring
parents remain active in the workforce. However, there is a lack of information
regarding how these tax credits influence parental time allocation, specifically regarding
the time spent with children. Using a difference-in-differences framework, our study
aims to bridge this gap by investigating the effects of the 2017 CTC expansion on parents’
time allocation. The findings suggest that following the CTC expansion, parents residing
in areas with greater exposure to this policy change tend to reduce their involvement
in household and childcare tasks, allowing for more leisure time. This trend is particularly
noticeable among mothers. Upon closer examination, it becomes apparent that
the CTC reform primarily decreases the likelihood of parents engaging in basic childcare
responsibilities while having no significant impact on time spent with children completing
educational and recreational activities. We show that the effects of the 2017 CTC vary by
parents’ gender, thus contributing to a better understanding of how public policies can
effectively address gender discrepancies in household responsibilities.

Strengthening Work Requirements? Forecasting Impacts of Reforming Cash Assistance Rules

Gabrielle Pepin
,
W.E. Upjohn Institute
Josep Nadal-Fernandez
,
Michigan State University
Kane Schrader
,
W.E. Upjohn Institute

Abstract

Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America’s sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states’ work requirements. However, researchers’ and policymakers’ understanding of how FRA will impact states’ compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly available data.

We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that are collected to administrative caseload and expenditure data to document several strategies that states currently use to comply with federal work requirements. We estimate that FRA will increase the stringency of work requirements in 23 states and that 5 states will begin to fall short of requirements. We note that several compliance strategies available to those states do not encourage work. We discuss changes in states’ work requirements that would promote better long-term economic and labor market outcomes for TANF recipients.

Fifty State Safety Nets: Trends, Patterns, and Policy Lessons

Tara Watson
,
Williams College
Lucie Schmidt
,
Smith College
Lara Shore-Sheppard
,
Williams College

Abstract

The U.S. safety net is better characterized as fifty-one unique support systems for low-income people. We consider several major safety net supports – Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and state and federal refundable tax credits – in 2001 through 2022, characterizing the eligibility and benefit rules in place in each state and year, taking into account interactions across programs. We then calculate the potential benefits available to a hypothetical set of families in each state and year. The results are presented at https://www.brookings.edu/articles/state-safety-net-interactive/.
We use this information to answer three sets of questions. First, how have safety net generosity levels evolved at the national level? The safety net in aggregate expanded over the 2001-2022 period, with particular increases in the Great Recession era and a mostly temporary set of expansions in the Covid era. Relatedly, we see substantial variation in generosity across states, even after accounting for cost of living differences.
A second class of questions relates to the composition of safety net benefits. We see a movement away from cash assistance to in-kind assistance such as food and health insurance. Within cash assistance, we see more emphasis on refundable tax credits and less on traditional welfare. Again, there are differences across states with wide differences in the structure of TANF and state decisions about the earned income tax credit.
Third, we examine how the safety net serves different types of families – those with higher or lower levels of earnings, those with more or fewer children, and those with married or unmarried parents. We see a movement towards support of working poor and near-poor families, and away from support for families without earnings, for example. We also see differences in TANF and state tax programs that have different implications

Discussant(s)
Katie Bollman
,
Oregon State University
Tatiana Homonoff
,
New York University
Sheridan Fuller
,
Federal Reserve Board
Marianne Bitler
,
University of California-Davis
JEL Classifications
  • I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
  • H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue