Addressing Inequality and Household Financial Shocks: Empirical Evaluation of Public Policies
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PST)
- Chair: Dmitry Taubinsky, University of California-Berkeley
Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and Their Aggregate Economic Implications
Abstract
Using administrative data on wealth, firm ownership structure, and migration in Sweden and Denmark, we document international migration patterns among the very wealthy, their impact on the economy, and how they respond to wealth taxation. We show that more than 20% of taxpayers liable to pay wealth tax are business-owners, and that the employment, investments, and value-added of these businesses are negatively affected when their owner migrates out of the country. Exploiting three large reforms, we then isolate the causal effect of wealth taxation on the international location choices of the wealthy. We find significant effects on out-migration flows from increases in the effective wealth tax. But, we also document that the overall level of these migration flows is remarkably small, with annual net-migration rates below .01%. As a result, we find that the aggregate economic effects of tax-induced migration are modest in Scandinavia: a one percentage point increase in the average wealth tax rate on the top 2% decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by at most 2% in the long run, and lead to a reduction of at most .03% in aggregate employment and at most .1% in aggregate value- added. Hence, our results suggest that trickle-down effects of tax-induced migration by the wealthy do exist, but that they are quantitatively small.Eviction as Bargaining Failure: Hostility and Misperceptions in the Rental Housing Market
Abstract
Court evictions from rental housing are common but could be avoided if landlords and tenants bargained instead. Such evictions are inefficient if they are costlier than bargaining. We test for two potential causes of inefficient eviction — hostile social preferences and misperceptions — by conducting lab-in-the-field experiments in Memphis, Tennessee with 1,808 tenants at risk of eviction and 371 landlords of at-risk tenants. We detect heterogeneous social preferences: 24% of tenants and 15% of landlords exhibit hostility, giving up money to hurt the other in real-stakes Dictator Games, yet more than 50% of both are highly altruistic. Both parties misperceive court or bargaining payoffs in ways that undermine bargaining. Motivated by the possibility of inefficient eviction, we evaluate the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, a prominent policy intervention, and find small impacts on eviction in an event-study design. To quantify the share of evictions that are inefficient, we estimate a bargaining model using the lab-in-the-field and event-study evidence. Due to hostile social preferences and misperceptions, one in four evictions results from inefficient bargaining failure. More than half would be inefficient without altruism. Social preferences weaken policy: participation in emergency rental assistance is selected on social preferences, which attenuates the program’s impacts despite the presence of inefficiency.Insuring Landlords
Abstract
This paper demonstrates that unpaid rent risk makes landlords reluctant to supply housing services to fragile tenants; and that insuring owners against it improves the access of renters to high-opportunity neighborhoods. We study the implementation of Visale, a publicly funded rent guarantee insurance policy in France, free of charge to eligible tenants and landlords. We exploit tax registry information on all French households, exhaustive data on Visale beneficiaries and claim payouts, and quasi-experimental eligibility variation across renters. We demonstrate that the non-payment guarantee increased access to private-sector rental housing for eligible tenants. The effects are stronger for immigrants and those with low or volatile incomes, who often do not satisfy standard screening criteria for landlords. The scheme eased the spatial mobility of low-income renters towards higher-wage, higher-rent locations. It led to new household formation, some reallocation of the vacant housing stock, and substitution out of public housing, but may have displaced ineligible households in tighter housing markets.JEL Classifications
- H0 - General
- H7 - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations