Applied Spatial Economics
Paper Session
Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)
- Chair: Stephen James Redding, Princeton University
Spatial Economics for Granular Settings
Abstract
We examine the application of quantitative spatial models to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study economic outcomes for regions, cities, and neighborhoods. In "granular" settings where people choose from a large set of potential residence-workplace pairs, idiosyncratic choices affect equilibrium outcomes. Using both Monte Carlo simulations and event studies of neighborhood employment booms, we demonstrate that calibration procedures that equate observed shares and modeled probabilities perform very poorly in such settings. We introduce a general-equilibrium model of a granular spatial economy. Applying this model to Amazon's proposed HQ2 in New York City reveals that the project's predicted consequences for most neighborhoods are small relative to the idiosyncratic component of individual decisions in this setting. We propose a convenient approximation for researchers to quantify the ``granular uncertainty'' accompanying their counterfactual predictions.The Local Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from the Corn Laws
Abstract
We provide new theory and evidence on the distributional consequences of trade using the 1846 repeal of the Corn Laws in Britain, which opened British markets to international competition from the large-scale ``grain invasion'' from the new world that occurred in the second half of the 19th century with improvements in inland and maritime transportation technologies. We make use of a newly-created, spatially-disaggregated dataset on population, employment by sector, rateable values (land and property value), and poor law (welfare transfers) disbursement for thousands parishes and hundreds poor law unions in Britain from 1801-1911. We show that the repeal of the Corn Laws led to a large-scale population redistribution from rural to urban areas, structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing and services, increases in local poverty, and a substantial redistribution in the value of land and buildings. Using a quantitative general equilibrium model of the spatial distribution of economic activity, we find aggregate welfare gains, but substantial distributional consequences across factors, sectors and regions.Equilibrium Particulate Exposure
Abstract
We assemble global spatially disaggregated panel data describing ambient particulatelevels and transport, population, and economic and polluting activities. These data indicate the
importance of country level determinants of pollution, of the equilibrium process that separates
or brings together people and particulates, of urbanization, and of the composition of economic
activity and energy production. We then develop an Integrated Assessment Model describing
particulate emissions, economic activity and particulate dispersion. We quantify the model for 31
countries representing more than 60% of world population. Model results indicate the importance
of general equilibrium adjustments to particulates policy. For example, restrictions on agricultural
burning increase equilibrium pollution exposure in the majority of countries by shifting labor
to more polluting industries and locations. The model also indicates important cross-country
heterogeneity in the effects of particulates policies.
JEL Classifications
- R1 - General Regional Economics
- F0 - General