Wartime Economics
Paper Session
Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2027 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)
- Chair: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California-Berkeley
Charitable Giving in Wartime: Evidence from Ukraine’s War Fundraising
Abstract
We analyze how military events, civilian fatalities, and media coverage influence same-day donations to a major Ukrainian nonprofit providing lethal aid during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a unique setting, we exploit random variation in attacks on civilians across time to estimate that one additional civilian fatality causes between $4,354 and $6,015 in same-day donations, and leads to at least $8,169 in cumulative donations. Disentangling the effects of events and media coverage, we estimate that a 1% increase in media mentions of military activity leads to a $2,906 increase in same-day donations and an $8,083 increase in cumulative donations.A Leopard in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush: Measuring the Real Economic Value of European Support for Ukraine
Abstract
Europe is collectively the largest supporter of Ukraine’s defense, yet announced aid totals vastly overstate what has been delivered. Applying the item-level methodology of Fedyk et al. (2025) across 30 European donors, we find real delivered value falls well below €130 billion in headline pledges, with delivery rates varying from under 10 percent to over 100 percent across countries. Front-line and Central European states bear disproportionate burdens relative to GDP, while several large Western economies under-deliver relative to both pledges and capacity. We exploit this cross-sectional variation to identify the correlates of follow-through and assess macroeconomic effects on donor economies.The Allocative Cost of War: A View to a Kill…ing of Productivity
Abstract
Why is war so economically costly? Our answer is that modern war lowers output not only by destroying productive factors, but also by making the surviving economy work less efficiently. Using uniquely comprehensive firm-level data collected during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we document a dramatic collapse in allocative productivity in Ukraine. To sharpen identification and explore key mechanisms (including the role of war intensity, internal displacement, reallocation, and macroeconomic instability), we exploit spatial heterogeneity across Ukrainian districts and comparisons with Russian aggression in 2014 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Our key policy implication is that restoring allocative efficiency–and preparing institutional arrangements that facilitate rapid reallocation in times of stress–is critical for sustaining economic capacity, defense, and national security.Discussant(s)
Andrii Parkhomenko
,
University of Southern California
Ina Ganguli
,
University of Massachusetts-Amherst
Ilona Sologub
,
VoxUkraine
Solomiya Shpak
,
World Bank
JEL Classifications
- F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
- E0 - General