Economics of Immigration
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 3, 2027 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (EST)
- Chair: Kenneth Couch, University of Connecticut
De Facto Immigration Enforcement and Labor Market Dynamics
Abstract
Making use of information on arrests and deportations obtained from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests along with data from the Current Population Surveys (CPS), we estimate the relationship between these de facto measures of immigration enforcement and labor market dynamics among the foreign and native born in the United States. The analysis examines the period from 2023 through 2025. Data on arrests are tabulated at the state-month level and deportations by Area of Responsibility (AOR). The CPS data are also tabulated at the state-month level to match the respective levels of aggregation arrests and deportations. Examining employment and labor force participation as outcomes, we find that both decline in response to arrests and deportations. We also find some evidence of substitution towards non-immigrant workers. Focusing on those with a high school education or less and also including those reporting they are not citizens, these patterns of results are strengthened, consistent with the prior literature.Economic Insecurity and Demand for Immigration Enforcement
Abstract
Does labor market scarcity increase local demand for immigration enforcement? We address this question by examining how the Great Recession affected 287(g) partnerships that deputize local law enforcement to act as immigration agents. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that commuting zones experiencing higher unemployment increases between 2007-2009 were more likely to adopt these partnerships. The effects are concentrated in areas with above-median pre-Recession immigrant populations, construction industry employment, and foreign-born workers in routine manual occupations. Our results support the hypothesis that adverse labor market shocks increase support for policies restricting immigrants' ability to compete in local labor markets.Sanctuary Policies and Immigrant Tax Compliance
Abstract
This paper examines whether immigration enforcement environments influenceimmigrants’ participation in the U.S. tax system. Specifically, we study whether
sanctuary policies—state and local policies limiting cooperation between local authorities
and federal immigration enforcement—affect the likelihood that individuals file a federal
income tax return. We use individual-level data from the Survey of Income and Program
Participation (SIPP) covering 2014–2024, which directly reports whether respondents
filed a federal tax return in the previous year. To identify policy effects, we exploit
variation in the timing and geographic coverage of sanctuary policy adoption across U.S.
states and counties and estimate staggered difference-in-differences models with
individual, state, and year fixed effects. Beyond estimating average effects, we explore
the mechanisms through which sanctuary policies may influence tax filing behavior. In
particular, we examine whether policy effects operate through changes in perceived
enforcement risks when interacting with government institutions or through improved
labor market participation that increases incentives to report income. Understanding
these channels is important for evaluating the fiscal implications of immigration policy
and how enforcement environments shape immigrants’ engagement with formal
institutions.
Discussant(s)
Joaquín Rubalcaba
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Madeline Zavodny
,
University of North Florida
JEL Classifications
- J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
- J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor