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Tax Policy: Implications Across Demographic Groups

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (EST)

Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Room 409
Hosted By: National Economic Association
  • Chair: Charles Hokayem, U.S. Census Bureau

CTC and ACTC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology

Charles Hokayem
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Ciyata Coleman
,
Internal Revenue Service
Ashley Erceg
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Sanghun Kim
,
Internal Revenue Service
Ethan Krohn
,
Internal Revenue Service
Krishnan Patel
,
Internal Revenue Service
Dean Pluger
,
Internal Revenue Service

Abstract

The Child Tax Credit (CTC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) offer assistance to help ease the financial burden for families with children. This paper presents a new methodology for estimating participation (take-up) of the CTC and ACTC that relies on linking the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify CTC/ACTC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall, in tax year 2020 eligible taxpayers participated in the CTC and ACTC program at a rate of 93 percent while dollar participation (take-up of eligible dollars) was 91 percent. We present participation by various socioeconomic characteristics, adjusted gross income, eligible credit amount, and filing status. We also present characteristics of eligible taxpayers who do not participate in the program. Future work will extend the methodology to other tax years spanning 2018-2022 to show trends in participation surrounding the expanded Child Tax Credit of 2021 under the American Rescue Plan.

Black-White Differences in Income Tax Liability

William Gale
,
Brookings Institution
John Sabelhaus
,
Brookings Institution
Oliver Hall
,
Brookings Institution

Abstract

The federal income tax does not explicitly discriminate by race or ethnicity but can still generate disparate outcomes when a group’s activity correlates with determinants of tax liability. Using SCF data and NBER’s TAXSIM model, we find that untaxed forms of income accrue disproportionately to white households across most income levels. Black households face lower tax rates than whites in low-income groups due to differences in filing status and dependents but face higher rates than white units in high-income groups due to differences in income composition. We also examine cross-group implications of historical and prospective policy changes.

Black-White Disposable Income Inequality: The Rising Importance of Single Women

Elizabeth Krause
,
University of Kentucky

Abstract

The share of tax units headed by single women is twice as large for Black units than White units, and this gender differential in tax unit structure significantly contributes to Black-White income inequality. I decompose the Black-White disposable income gap by tax unit structure categories to estimate single women’s contribution to racial income inequality and examine the extent to which this is influenced by taxes and transfers at the 10th, 25th, and 50th percentiles. The portion of the gap explained by single women without children has grown consistently since the 1980s while the share attributable to low-income single mothers has declined in recent years. At the median, single mothers account for an average of 26 percent of the gap from 1980-2022, and single women without children account for an average of 11 percent. The declining importance of single mothers is in large part due to redistribution of the tax and transfer systems and declining inequality between Black and White single mothers. For single women without children, their share of the gap is exacerbated by the tax code despite declining within-group racial inequality. Singles, particularly single women, represent an under-investigated group in research on tax policy and racial inequality. I provide evidence that single mothers and single women without children are important to understanding Black-White income inequality relative to single men as well as demographic and economic factors.

State Tax Policy, Health Outcomes, and Racial Animus

Krista Ruffini
,
Georgetown University
Bradley L. Hardy
,
Georgetown University

Abstract

The United States is a federal system in which federal, state, and local governments share responsibilities for raising tax revenue and investing in public goods. This decentralized system means that states have considerable autonomy in determining how to structure their revenue base in progressivity and levels and what types of goods and services (and for whom) to spend this revenue on. At the same time, there is substantial variation in health outcomes across states, and within states, Black individuals tend to have worse average health outcomes than non-Hispanic White individuals, even after accounting for factors such as socioeconomic status. Despite substantial cross-state variation in both the availability of public goods and the progressivity of state tax systems, there is relatively little work examining how these state level decisions shape child health and health inequities by race and ethnicity. This paper fills this gap in knowledge by providing some of the first evidence describing the relationship between state taxes, public goods, and child health. We explore measures of health separately by race and ethnicity in order to explore the extent to which tax and transfer policies shape health inequities. We find that more progressive tax systems at the state level are also associated with more robust state safety nets. Tax and transfer policies that serve lower-income households are also associated with better infant health along multiple dimensions and lower racial health inequities.

Discussant(s)
Fenaba Addo
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Damon Jones
,
University of Chicago
Jeremy Moulton
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
James Ziliak
,
University of Kentucky
JEL Classifications
  • H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
  • J1 - Demographic Economics