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  5. GLP-1 Drugs and Food Demand
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GLP-1 Drugs and Food Demand

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 5, 2026 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)

Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Room 408
Hosted By: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association & Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
  • Chair: Jill J. McCluskey, Washington State University

Characteristics and Food Consumption for Current, Previous, and Potential Consumers of GLP-1s

Brandon R. McFadden
,
University of Arkansas
Andrew Dilley
,
University of Arkansas
Saroj Adhikari
,
University of Arkansas
Pratikshya Silwal
,
University of Arkansas
Jayson L. Lusk
,
Oklahoma State University

Abstract

Widespread adoption of Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists could cause significant changes in food consumption and preferences that disrupt the food industry. In this study, we survey four consumer groups to better understand how GLP-1s may affect food consumption and preferences. The four groups were: 1) consumers currently using a GLP-1, 2) consumers who have previously used a GLP-1, 3) consumers who haven't used a GLP-1 but plan to in the future, and 4) consumers who haven't used a GLP-1 and don't plan to in the future. Results show that consumers currently taking a GLP-1 consume significantly fewer calories than the other groups surveyed, and calorie reduction while taking a GLP-1 for weight loss could be around 720 to 990 calories. Additionally, those taking GLP-1s most likely reduce consumption of processed foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, refined grains, and beef. The results of this study will inform potential consumers and food companies of valuable insights into the broader effects of GLP-1s on caloric intake and food preferences.

Weight-loss Drugs Shedding Away Demand for Ultra-processed Foods

Jill J. McCluskey
,
Washington State University
Koroles Awad
,
Washington State University
Mariah Ehmke
,
Unaffiliated
Abigail Okrent
,
USDA

Abstract

U.S. Obesity rates continue to rise even though average caloric intake has plateaued in recent years, prompting significant interest in identifying both underlying causes and effective interventions. One line of inquiry centers on the increased consumption of ultra-processed foods, which have been associated with poorer diet quality and higher all-cause mortality. Concurrently, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) medications, originally developed to treat type-2 diabetes, have gained popularity for weight management due to their appetite-suppressing effects. These medications may not only reduce overall caloric intake but also shift users’ food preferences. In

this paper, we explore how initiating GLP-1 therapy affects household demand for foods grouped by their level of processing. We employ a rich dataset that merges household scanner data from 2020 to 2023 with pharmacy prescription data to identify when individuals begin taking GLP-1 medications. This linkage allows us to measure how households alter their purchasing patterns once they start using the medication. To classify purchased items, we rely on the NOVA Food Classification system, which consists of four categories: (1) unprocessed or minimally processed foods, (2) processed culinary ingredients, (3) processed foods, and (4) ultra-processed foods. We manually labeled 17,000 products and then trained a natural language model to classify the remainder of purchased products. We use the difference-in-differences approach proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2020) to identify the causal effects by exploiting variation in the timing of GLP-1 medication initiation. Our results reveal a significant reduction in monthly household food expenditures of approximately $53 after the start of GLP-1 therapy. While spending declines in all four NOVA categories, we detect notable shifts in budget shares across these groups. Specifically, the share devoted to unprocessed or minimally processed foods increases by 3%, whereas the share allocated to ultra-processed foods decreases by 2%. The shares of processed culinary ingredients and processed

GLP-1 Use and Protein Demand

Justin D. Bina
,
Arizona State University
Glynn T. Tonsor
,
Kansas State University
Timothy J. Richards
,
Arizona State University

Abstract

The use of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists for weight loss is reshaping food demand, particularly for protein. This research estimates how GLP-1 use alters protein demand curves using methods of causal inference applied to structural demand modeling. Data from a public survey are balanced via matching to address endogenous selection into GLP-1 treatment. Demand shifts and rotations are then estimated using a discrete choice model and an Almost Ideal Demand System. GLP-1 use increases willingness-to-pay for most evaluated protein products, though the effects vary by product and outlet. Own-price elasticities for several retail products become up to 0.22 more inelastic. Our findings of shift effects of GLP-1 use on protein demand indicate externalities that are internal to the U.S. food system and that extend beyond simple consumption changes.

Discussant(s)
Brian E. Roe
,
Ohio State University
JEL Classifications
  • D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics
  • I1 - Health