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Fertility

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 5, 2026 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (EST)

Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon I
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Lukas Nord, University of Pennsylvania

Abortion, Economic Hardship, and Crime

Erkmen G. Aslim
,
University of Vermont
Wei Fu
,
University of Louisville
Caitlin Myers
,
Middlebury College, IZA, and NBER
Erdal Tekin
,
American University, IZA, and NBER
Bingjin Xue
,
University of New Hampshire

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of abortion access on economic hardship and crime. Using a novel database of geocoded abortion provider locations in Texas from 2009 to 2019, we exploit within-state and temporal variation in travel distance to the nearest abortion facility to measure abortion access. Our findings indicate that increased travel distance to abortion facilities leads to fewer intentional pregnancy terminations and more live births. This limited access contributes to significant economic hardship, reflected in lower labor force participation, increased debt and poverty, and heightened housing insecurity. Our findings also reveal that this financial strain translates into higher rates of financially motivated crimes, such as theft and burglary, while showing no significant impact on violent crime. Notably, these effects extend beyond directly affected individuals, suggesting intra-household spillover effects that contribute to broader community-level changes in criminal behavior. Our results highlight the far-reaching consequences of restricted access to reproductive healthcare, demonstrating that such limitations exacerbate financial distress and significantly influence crime patterns.

The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility

Abigail Dow
,
Boston University

Abstract

Across the developed world, fertility rates have fallen below replacement level, raising concerns over shrinking workforces and ageing populations. U.S. birthrates have reached historic lows, and high childcare costs pose a financial barrier to parenthood. This paper studies how childcare prices shape fertility decisions - whether to have children, when to have them, and how many to have. Using an instrumental variables approach that exploits changes in U.S. state-level childcare regulations that effectively shift the price of childcare, I find that higher prices reduce birth rates, delay first births, and lengthen the interval between first and second births. A 10% increase in the price of childcare leads to a 5.7% decrease in the birth rate (4 births per 1000 women). Reduced form results show that changes in the regulations directly impact birthrates. Declines are largest amongst women aged 30 and above. I propose a theoretical model to explain this age gradient: older women earning higher wages face a greater opportunity cost of their time and thus outsource childcare, making them more sensitive to its price. Consistent with the model's predictions, older parents spend more on formal childcare, and more educated women (with higher incomes) exhibit greater price sensitivity. Additionally, older mothers are more likely to be considering higher order births, which I find to be more price sensitive.

Do Price Regulations on Birth Control Pills Decrease Fertility?

Ana Melissa Perez Castaño
,
University of Minnesota
Ana Melissa Perez Castaño
,
University of Minnesota

Abstract

In 2018, the Colombian government intervened in the pharmaceutical market by creating cap
prices on high-cost birth control pills. Given the necessity of these drugs, the effects of price
reductions are not always clear. Also, there is no evidence of whether the policy effectively
increased access to contraception and reduced pregnancy rates. Therefore, this study aims to
analyze fertility changes due to price caps on birth control pills. Using administrative claims from
an insurer in the contributory regime, I found little evidence that price regulation affected fertility,
even for the young ones. The results do not support the efficacy of the policy in its goal.
JEL Classifications
  • J1 - Demographic Economics