U.S. Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads: Navigating Protectionism, Global Competition, and Economic Integration
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (EST)
- Chair: Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University
Rethinking Trade Policy: Unlocking Market Access for U.S. Food and Agricultural Exports
Abstract
The Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on all trading partners on April 2, 2025, the so-called “Liberation Day”—to pressure countries into negotiating trade agreements aimed at boostingU.S. exports and address what the administration described as unfair competition faced by American producers in global markets. At the time these measures were announced, the U.S. already had free trade agreements in force with 20 countries. In this paper, we estimate the market potential for U.S. agricultural and food manufacturing exports to each country, assuming the U.S. were to pursue a trade agreement with them. To do so, we rely on an updated version of the USITC’s International Trade and Production Database for Simulation (ITPD-S), which includes annual bilateral trade flows from 1986 to 2023. We use a structural gravity framework to estimate the partial effect of tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTB) on bilateral export flows. These estimates are then used in a universal gravity general equilibrium model to evaluate scenarios in which NTBs and tariffs are removed, either separately or together, under hypothetical trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries. The analysis considers both bilateral agreements and regional groupings. The results show the maximum potential increase in U.S. agri-food exports under each trade scenario, evaluated in both the short and long run. This study contributes to the literature by offering a straightforward and flexible approach to assessing the potential benefits of trade agreements through enhanced market access.
Potential Economic Implications of a U.S.-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on Agriculture
Abstract
Despite tremendous uncertainty with U.S. trade policy in 2025, there is the potential for new trade agreements to emerge. The establishment of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has the potential to significantly reshape agricultural trade flows and economic welfare in both regions. This study employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework to assess the potential economic effects of eliminating tariffs on agricultural trade between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The analysis quantifies changes in agricultural trade flows, production, import and export prices, gross domestic product, and welfare outcomes. Results indicate that while the U.S. would experience a net welfare gain of $1.9 billion, the ASEAN region would face an aggregate welfare loss of $415 million, primarily driven by terms of trade effects. Additionally, the findings reveal asymmetries in the distribution of gains and losses across ASEAN countries, with some members benefiting from increased exports to the United States, while others face competitive pressures in their domestic markets. This study provides insights regarding the economic implications of trade liberalization and the potential for deeper trade integration between the U.S. and ASEAN.Impacts of Shifting Trade Policy on Import-Competing Sectors
Abstract
In sharp contrast to the overall U.S. agricultural trade balance, U.S. specialty crops have operated in an import-competing space for decades. The first negative U.S. trade balance for fruit & vegetables was recorded in 1966, and there has not been a positive trade balance for the sector since 1996 (FAO). Much of this difference is due to the seasonal and perishable nature of fresh fruits and vegetables, which limit stor- ability and shelf life. Global competitiveness of U.S. production in specialty crops has been declining (CRS, 2020), and winter imports of fresh fruit and vegetables have surged, particularly from Mexico, competing directly with specialty crop sectors in the Southeast U.S. The competitiveness of U.S. specialty crop sectors is impacted by multiple factors, including shifting global climate, technical innovation, and trade policy (see CRS, 2022; Gustafsson et al., 2022; Hammami, Guan, and Cui, 2024). For example, since fruit, vege- table, and tree nut production is highly dependent on manual labor, worker availability and affordability are often cited as a leading challenge for the competitiveness of U.S. specialty crops (U.S. House Commit- tee on Agriculture, 2023). In 2015, large and very large specialty crop farms employed 0.72 labor hours per sales dollar full-time-equivalents (FTEs) annually per $100,000 of gross cash farm income, three times higher than the number of FTEs per sales dollar employed on comparably scaled cash grain farms (Mac- Donald, Hoppe, and Newton, 2018). This paper investigates the extent to which a shift towards a more protectionist trade policy may shift the competitive landscape for US specialty crops.Discussant(s)
Sandro Steinbach
,
North Dakota State University
JEL Classifications
- F1 - Trade
- Q1 - Agriculture