Advances in Economic Measurement and Policy Evaluation Using Bank Transactions Data
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM (EST)
- Chair: Jose G. Montalvo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Maternity Benefits, Consumption and Labor Supply: Estimating Causal Effects with Bank Transaction Data
Abstract
We study the effects of a large cash transfer to new mothers in the region of Madrid on women’s expenditure patterns and labor supply. We follow a regression discontinuity design where the running variable is the date of birth, given that mothers were only eligible for the subsidy for births starting in January 1 of 2022. We take advantage of rich and very granular transaction data from a large bank to trace out take-up as well as expenditure patterns and labor earnings. We find that women who were eligible for the large subsidy (500€ per month for more than two years) increased their total expenditure during the eligibility period, while their labor earnings did not decline. We also show marked spikes in expenditure in the dates immediately following benefit receipt. We conclude that the benefit increased consumption for women with liquidity constraints, without reducing their labor supply in the two years following childbirth.Fiscal Aid or Fiscal Multiplier? On the Spending Effect of Targeted Fiscal Transfers
Abstract
In periods of economic crisis, governments have the tendency to use fiscal aid to supporttheir citizens. This has also been done during the latest crisis when inflation rates increased
quickly. If fiscal aid causes households to increase their consumption, prices may increase further
and the effects of the fiscal support are dampened by a further increase of inflation. In this
paper, we consider a support program of the Dutch government to help low-income households
deal with the high energy costs in 2022 and 2023. This program consists of substantial lumpsum
payments to all low-income households. The implementation was done at the level of the
municipality, which means that the amounts, the timing of the payments and the sequence of
payments differ substantially between municipalities. We use detailed bank transaction data to
investigate how fast low-income households spend this additional support. Our empirical results
show a substantial increase in consumption shortly after households receive their transfer. While
fiscal aid directed towards low-income households is more targeted than generic aid such as VAT
reductions, not all low-income households were confronted with increased energy prices in 2022
and 2023. We investigate whether by fine-tuning the targeting not just on the income side of
households balance sheet but also on the cost side (to households that actually see their energy
bill increase), the fiscal aid can become less inflationary.
Universalism and Localized Natural Disasters: A View from Bank Transactions Data
Abstract
This paper examines the challenges of studying moral universalism—the principle of valuing all individuals equally regardless of proximity—in charitable behavior, particularly given the methodological difficulties of obtaining controlled representative samples. Traditional sampling approaches, such as random selection, face practical barriers like nonresponse bias and resource constraints, often resulting in overreliance on nonrepresentative convenience samples. These limitations complicate efforts to isolate causal relationships between cultural factors (e.g., localism) and donation patterns. We propose a natural experiment as a robust alternative for identifying universalistic tendencies. Natural disasters offer a unique lens to test these dynamics, as they create exogenous variation in local needs and altruistic incentives. The 2024 Spanish Flood provides a quasi-experimental setting to analyze how localized crises influence charitable priorities. By exploiting geographic variation in flood exposure, we can observe shifts in donation behavior. Preliminary evidence suggests that communities with stronger localist traditions exhibit reduced long-distance charitable giving elasticity, favoring proximate recipients.Discussant(s)
Sevi Rodriguez Mora
,
University of Edinburgh
Martin Brown
,
University of St. Gallen and Study Center Gerzensee
Jose G. Montalvo
,
Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics
Libertad González
,
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
JEL Classifications
- I0 - General
- H0 - General