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  5. Economics of Crime
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Economics of Crime

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 5, 2026 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (EST)

Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon I
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Amanda Agan, Cornell University

Learning About Police Bias: Prosecutors and Police Before and After Body-Worn Cameras

Emma Harrington
,
University of Virginia
Hannah Shaffer
,
Harvard University

Abstract

Decision-makers often fail to correct for others’ biases. We study this dynamic in the criminal justice system, where prosecutors rely on police for information about arrests but recently began receiving more objective information from body-worn cameras (BWCs). Using BWCs’ staggered rollout in North Carolina, we find BWCs reduce incarceration disparities by 14% — only one-sixth of which is explained by reductions in arrests. To unpack mechanisms, we link an original survey of 203 prosecutors to their half-million cases. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a quarter of the incarceration result reflects learning: prosecutors with more BWC exposure view police as less reliable and more biased.

Stop and Frisk Around the Country

David Abrams
,
University of Pennsylvania
Priyanka Goonetilleke
,
Northwestern University

Abstract

This project assembles over eight million pedestrian and vehicle stop records from sixteen major U.S. cities to provide the first large-scale analysis of stop-and-frisk policing practices. We document striking cross-city variation —nearly two orders of magnitude— in stop and frisk rates that cannot be explained by crime, demographics, or police resources. Between 2019 and 2023, gun hit rates rose as frisks declined, consistent with optimizing models of police behavior, while non-gun contraband hit rates remained largely unchanged, suggesting optimizing models are not universally applicable. We find substantial racial disparities in stop and frisk rates but not in hit rates. These findings suggest the need for standardized national guidelines.

Low-Level Leniency: The Recidivism Impacts of Diversion for Low-level Traffic Offenses

Amanda Agan
,
Cornell University
Anna Harvey
,
New York University
Anna Kyriazis
,
New York University
Lauren Schechter
,
University of Notre Dame

Abstract

Low-level misdemeanor traffic offenses are very common and lead many people to have criminal records. One large jurisdiction implemented a diversion program that allowed individuals charged with driving with a suspended license to clear their suspension and then they would drop the case, leaving the individual without a criminal record. We leverage a synthetic-DiD-IV design where the post-policy period serves as an instrument for getting diversion, and other crime types serve as control groups for those charged with suspended license crimes. We find that this leniency does not cause decreases in recidivism; this appears to be driven by the fact that "control" defendants tend to receive infraction pleas which already do not lead to criminal records.

Discussant(s)
Andrew Jordan
,
Washington University in St. Louis
Emily Leslie
,
Brigham Young University
JJ Prescott
,
University of Michigan
JEL Classifications
  • K0 - General
  • K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior