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Economic Growth

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Union Square 10
Hosted By: Econometric Society
  • Chair: Thomas Winberry, University of Pennsylvania

Innovation and Endogenous Knowledge Network Dynamics

Jie Cai
,
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Can Tian
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Abstract

We study innovation and endogenous knowledge-network evolution in a general-equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms and long-run growth. The empirical examination uses patent-citation data to track the formation of new links in the knowledge network across technological categories. We find that these new links are formed infrequently and tend to connect high-quality innovations and large firms on both ends. Formation of such new links boosts innovation and real performance of firms on both ends with positive spillovers to other firms.
We build a tractable model to rationalize these findings and study the aggregate implications of knowledge-network dynamics. In the model, the knowledge network evolves endogenously as each firm searches for others as knowledge-input suppliers and attracts others as users of its own knowledge. We characterize the stationary equilibrium path in closed-form and show that denser networks are associated with faster growth. The calibrated model suggests that cross-category knowledge network dynamics account for more than a half of growth in the US and explain almost two thirds of the growth slowdown.

Capital, Ideas, and the Costs of Financial Frictions

Pablo Ottonello
,
University of Maryland
Thomas Winberry
,
University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

We study the role of financial frictions in determining the allocation of investment and innovation. Empirically, we find that firms are investment-intensive when they have low net worth but become innovation-intensive as they accumulate more net worth. To interpret these findings, we develop an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions. In our model, low net worth firms are investment-intensive because their returns to capital are high. Financial frictions slow the rate at which firms exhaust the returns to capital and shift towards innovation. Calibrating to the US economy, we find that the resulting lower growth implies large GDP losses even though capital misallocation is small. In other words, financial markets effectively fund the implementation of existing ideas, but do not adequately fund the discovery of new ideas. If innovation has positive spillovers, a planner would not only raise innovation but also lower investment expenditures among constrained firms.
JEL Classifications
  • O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity