Job Search and Long-Term Unemployment
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (CST)
- Chair: Andreas Mueller, University of Texas-Austin
Risk Scores for Long-Term Unemployment and the Assignment to Job Search Counseling
Abstract
This paper examines the predictability of long-term unemployment and the assignment to job search counseling, using data from the Belgian public employment services (PES). Building on Mueller and Spinnewijn (2023), we find substantial predictability of probability of becoming long-term unemployed based on employment and income histories as well as detailed job search data collected by the PES. We also evaluate the use of the prediction algorithm for the assignment of job seekers to job search counselors and use the variation introduced by the prediction algorithm to evaluate the effects of job search counselors.Does Job Search Assistance Really Raise Employment?
Abstract
We study how job search assistance (JSA) affects employment in a randomized pilot study with long run administrative data. JSA increases employment in the first year after assignment. In the second year, when most job seekers have left JSA, the employment gains evaporate, and even turn into losses in the third year. This sinusoidal pattern is consistent with job finding and employment loss transitions. Job seekers assigned to JSA find employment faster but, once employed, also lose employment faster, especially once eligible for new unemployment benefits. Job seekers assigned to JSA have similar types of contracts and re-employment earnings, but somewhat worse positions in the firm and are more likely to have a part time job.The Impact of Work Coaches on Earnings
Abstract
We investigate the impact of work coaches (WCs) on the long-term employment and earnings from the universe of job seekers in the United Kingdom. When job seekers enter the UK benefits system, they are randomly assigned a WC from their local area. Using highly-detailed administrative data, we observe the match between the job seeker and the WC, and estimate the long-term dynamics of the match. We show that the impact of WCs can explain a great deal of the variation of long-term employment and earnings outcomes. We also show how the quality of the match impacts on long-term employment and earnings outcomes and what are the predictors of match quality.JEL Classifications
- J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers