The Causes and Consequences of Conflict
Paper Session
Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)
- Chair: Nancy Qian, Northwestern University
Social Media as Identity Barometer: Evidence From the Russia-Ukraine War
Abstract
How does conflict shape national identity? We study the impact of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict on the ethnic self-identification of individuals residing in Ukraine but outside of Crimea and the Donbas region. Using a series of nationally representative surveys conducted at a high frequency from 2007 through 2017, we find a sharp 10-percentage-point increase in the share of individuals identifying as solely Ukrainian post-conflict, with a corresponding decline in the proportion identifying as solely Russian or of mixed Russian-Ukrainian identity. Contrary to a polarization hypothesis, the shift toward Ukrainian identity was stronger in the more Russian-speaking areas. These findings remain stable after accounting for the compositional changes and refugee flows, and are further supported by an analysis of language use on social media. Overall, these results suggest that, in spite of its destabilizing nature, conflict can serve as a catalyst for nation-building processes.The Economic Causes and Consequences of the Rohingya Crisis
Abstract
While the United Nations describes Myanmar's oppression of the Rohingya as ``a textbook example of ethnic cleansing'', the state maintains that the violence was idiosyncratic, proportionate to ethnic militia attacks, and not civilian-focused. We assemble existing and original large-sample survey data to evaluate these claims. First, we find evidence of systematic economic motives: violence against minority civilians increased in places suitable for rice cultivation when international rice prices were high. We further document economic motives via an original representative survey of Rohingya refugees, in which we find substantial losses of agricultural land, inputs, and inventories. Next, using a vector auto-regression approach, we find that state violence was asymmetric, civilian-targeted, and ideological. Relative to other ethnic conflicts within Myanmar, state attacks asymmetrically responded to Rohingya militias with greater violence, were much more civilian-focused, and followed anti-Rohingya demonstrations by nationalist monks. Finally, we document significant trauma among Rohingya refugees, with more than one-third of our representative sample meeting the symptom criteria for depression.The Intensification Effects of Climate Change on Political Instability in the Long Run, 1400-1900CE
Abstract
Abstract This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period of 1400-1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context where traditional food production was disrupted by prolonged cooling. The results show that the effects of temperature change is non-linear over time. Large declines in temperature have little effect on conflict if they are isolated events, but consecutive periods of significant cooling are associated with more conflict. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that continued climate change can intensify the adverse consequences on economic activity and lead to political instability.Discussant(s)
Joris Mueller
,
National University of Singapore
Jaya Wen
,
Harvard University
Edward Miguel
,
University of California-Berkeley
Alexey Makarin
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JEL Classifications
- O1 - Economic Development
- D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making