Climate Change and Real Estate
Paper Session
Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (CST)
- Chair: Avis Devine, York University
Climate Change and Commercial Property Markets: The Role of Shocks, Retail Investors, and Media Attention
Abstract
The economic effect of climate hazard events varies by time and by location. This paper investigates how climate shocks to local property markets spillover to capital markets. We also provide evidence of how forward-looking climate risk is capitalized into the public valuations of those property markets. We first quantify the exposure of real estate portfolios to locations that recently experienced climate events (Event Exposure). Using an event study framework, we find that, in the post-event period, a one-standard-deviation increase in ex-ante Event Exposure is associated with a 0.2 to 1.4 percentage points decrease in quarterly stock returns. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that differences in return effects can be explained by variation in the extent to which local media focus on climate change. Similarly, we find that forward-looking climate risk assessment negatively affect firm valuations only in markets with high media attention. Consistent with these findings, we provide evidence that climate events (shocks) induce retail investors (noise traders) to decrease their stock holdings and that blockholders tend to take the opposite side in these transactions. We also show that conditioning on consumer sentiment helps to explain cross-sectional variation in the response of stock returns to climate events.High Temperature, Climate Change and Real Estate Prices
Abstract
We study the impact of local temperature spikes in the United States on real estate prices. Initially, we find that extreme temperatures intensify concerns about climate change and lead to more people moving out than in. Our analysis reveals that areas experiencing temperature spikes undergo a significant decrease in property values. This impact is more substantial in areas with greater awareness of global warming, during times when climate change is a major public concern, and in areas vulnerable to rising sea levels. Interestingly, while these temperature anomalies influence property sale prices, they do not affect rental rates similarly. This suggests that concerns about long-term climate threats mainly drive the decline in property values.Natural disaster and asset price: Evidence from the public commercial real estate market
Abstract
This study explores the relationship between natural disaster risk, investor behavior, and asset pricing using granular data on U.S. commercial real estate properties held by REITs. We estimate natural disaster beta, firm-specific time-varying exposure to natural disaster risks. Our study unveils a significant and positive correlation between natural disaster beta and future stock returns, supporting the price discount hypothesis. Firms facing higher natural disaster risk tend to exhibit lower stock prices, consequently resulting in higher expected future returns. Geographically distant investors play a pivotal role in this relationship. We also uncover that the salience effect plays a role in the sense that the premium associated with natural disaster beta is more pronounced for firms located in regions with lower historical natural disaster exposure. Intriguingly, we highlight the influence of the political regime on the strength of the natural disaster beta effect.Discussant(s)
Justin Contat
,
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Wen-Chi Liao
,
National University of Singapore
Erkan Yonder
,
Concordia University
Amine Ouazad
,
Rutgers University
JEL Classifications
- R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location