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  3. 2024
  4. Program
  5. The Economics of Crime and Justice: Evidence from Surveys, Administrative Data, and Policy Interventions
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The Economics of Crime and Justice: Evidence from Surveys, Administrative Data, and Policy Interventions

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (CST)

Marriott Rivercenter, Conference Room 5
Hosted By: Society of Government Economists
  • Chair: Danielle H. Sandler, U.S. Census Bureau

Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and Expenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data

Elizabeth Luh
,
University of Michigan
Carl Lieberman
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Michael Mueller-Smith
,
University of Michigan

Abstract

Millions of people in the United States face fines and fees in the criminal court system each year, totaling over $27 billion in overall criminal debt to-date. In this study, we leverage five distinct natural experiments in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin using regression discontinuity designs to evaluate the causal impact of such financial sanctions and user fees. We consider a range of long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, and other self-reported measures of well-being, which we measure through a combination of administrative data (Internal Review Service tax records; Criminal Justice Administrative Records System) and household surveys (American Community Survey). We find consistent evidence across the range of natural experiments and subgroup analyses of precise null effects on the population, ruling out long-run impacts larger than +/-3.6% on total earnings and +/-4.7% on total recidivism. Failure to find changes in outcomes undermines popular narratives of poverty traps arising from criminal debt but argues against the use of fines and fees as a source of local revenue and as a crime control tool.

Stimulus Payments and Crime: Randomized Timing from Social Security Serial Digits

David Pritchard
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Jillian Carr
,
Purdue University

Abstract

We study the effect of stimulus payments provided by the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. These laws each provided a one-time payment to tens of millions of households with the timing of payment determined by the last two digits of a tax filer’s social security number. Using administrative arrest data from California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona we exploit the randomized timing of these payments to estimate the impact on criminal offenses. We find little evidence of an effect in 2001, a time when the payments were small and the economic downturn was mild. However, we find the stimulus payments of 2008 had a significant impact on overall crime and individual crime types. Our estimates are most pronounced for individuals with a previous arrest record. Our findings suggest that during harsh economic downturns, large stimulus payments can increase family violence potentially through increased substance use.

The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System

Rachel Nesbit
,
U.S. Census Bureau

Abstract

Mental health disorders are particularly prevalent among those in the criminal justice system. Using North Carolina court cases from 1994 to 2009, I evaluate how mandated mental health treatment as a term of probation impacts the likelihood that individuals return to the criminal justice system. I use random variation in judge assignment to compare those who were required to seek weekly mental health counseling to those who were not. I find that being assigned to seek mental health treatment significantly decreases the likelihood of three-year recidivism. This effect persists over time, and is similar among various types of individuals on probation. In addition, I show that mental health treatment operates distinctly from drug addiction interventions. I provide evidence that mental health treatment's longer-term effectiveness is strongest among more financially-advantaged probationers, consistent with this setting in which the cost of mandated treatment is shouldered by offenders. Finally, I calculate a 5 to 1 benefit-to-cost ratio which suggests that the treatment-induced decrease in future crime would be more than sufficient to offset the costs of providing treatment.

Discussant(s)
Eric English
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Danielle H. Sandler
,
U.S. Census Bureau
David Pritchard
,
U.S. Census Bureau
JEL Classifications
  • K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior