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Remote Work

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (CST)

Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon B Sec 9
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Alexander Wickman Bartik, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign

The Impact of Remote Work on Local Employment, Business Relocation, and Local Home Costs

Michael R. Dalton
,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mark Loewenstein
,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Matthew Dey
,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Abstract

Link to paper: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2022/pdf/ec220080.pdf

This paper brings together five different data sets to further analyze the effects of the increase in teleworking that occurred during the pandemic: the Business Response Survey (a new BLS Survey of establishments), the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), the American Community Survey (ACS), and Zillow. Combining the BRS, the OEWS, and the QCEW, we impute teleworking take-up rates for the universe of business establishments in the U.S, for the period immediately preceding the pandemic and for the the summer of 2021. We predict a firm’s decision to relocate or downsize based on whether teleworking by its employees has increased. Increased teleworking results in a reduction in local foot traffic when the number of workers who stop commuting out of the area is smaller than the number workers who no longer commute into an area. Combining information in the ACS about residence with our teleworking estimates for the universe of establishments, we estimate the change in net traffic inflow for every zip code. Armed with these estimates and the QCEW, we then estimate the consequent effects on local employment in the various industries. The negative impact of a reduction in Census track foot traffic was especially strong for employment in accommodation and food services We conclude our analysis by bringing in Zillow data to analyze the effect that the changes brought on by increased working at home has on local rents and home prices. The key explanatory variables in the estimated equations for rents and home prices are predictions by zip code for firm relocations, firm downsizing, and the change in net foot traffic inflow.

Is Working from Home Here to Stay? Evidence from Job Posting Data after the Covid-19 Shock

Hongcheng Xu
,
Peking University
Jiayin Hu
,
Peking University
Yang Yao
,
Peking University
Liuyi Zheng
,
Peking University

Abstract

We examine the transition to and persistence of working from home (WFH) by firms after the Covid-19 shock. Using job posting data from a leading online job portal in China and exploiting the Covid-19 pandemic as a quasi-experiment inducing the short-run WFH take-up of firms, we find a substantial and persistent increase in the share of WFH jobs post Covid-19. The WFH share increase in job posting is larger in firms with lower pre-Covid WFH adoption, consistent with the learning effect from temporary shutdown policies. Firms with greater potential for remote work, measured by the teleworkability index à la Dingel & Neiman (2020), also experience larger increase in WFH job postings. Given that WFH jobs provide higher salaries and have higher educational requirements, our findings suggest that WFH is here to stay and thus have long-term implications on firm productivity and labor market inequality.

The Covid-19 Shock and the Future of Working From Home: Evidence from Job Vacancy Postings in Germany

Christina Langer
,
Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt
Jean-Victor Alipour
,
Ifo Institute
Layla O'Kane
,
Emsi Burning Glass

Abstract

We study the development of working from home (WFH) before and during the Covid- 19 recession using online job vacancy postings from Emsi Burning Glass containing the near-universe of job ads in Germany from 2014 onwards. We classify a posting as having a working from home (WFH) option if specific WFH-related terms occur in the raw text job description. We document a rapid growth in jobs offering a WFH option to employees: between 2019Q4 and 2021Q2 the share of postings with a WFH option more than tripled from 4.4% to 14%. The increase was most pronounced in occupations with initially high untapped WFH potential, suggesting that employers increasingly exploit their WFH potential by adding WFH options to job postings. We find that within occupation postings are more likely to demand basic computer skills as well as online communication skills when adding a WFH option, pointing to a permanent shift towards (at least partly) WFH.

COVID-Induced Migration and Municipal Bonds

Matthew Gustafson
,
Pennsylvania State University
Peter Haslag
,
Vanderbilt University
Daniel Weagley
,
Georgia Institute of Technology
Zihan Ye
,
University of Nevada-Las Vegas

Abstract

Migration patterns in the United States changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that COVID-induced migration predicts municipal bond yield spreads, particularly for lower-rated bonds and areas experiencing larger than usual population outflows. Analyzing this effect across the term structure suggests both short- and long-run effects, with the short-run effect leading adversely hit areas to issue fewer bonds during the latter half of 2020. We find little evidence that pre-COVID trends in yield spreads relate to an area’s COVID-induced migration shock, and no evidence that abnormal migration predicts yield spreads prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings suggest that market participants believe that COVID period migration captures a permanent, economically relevant, phenomenon that poses downside risk to the future of some municipal economies.

The Exodus from New York City during COVID-19: Evidence from Out-of-Town Home Purchases

Minghao Li
,
New Mexico State University
Pengfei Liu
,
University of Rhode Island
Chuan Tang
,
Huazhong Agricultural University

Abstract

Based on the universe of individual-level property transactions, we provide direct evidence on the population redistribution from densely populated metropolitan areas to nearby locations after the COVID-19 outbreak. We focus on out-of-town property purchases—a novel proxy for corresponding migration flows—by New York City (NYC) residents in New York state and five adjacent States. At the highest point after the pandemic, out-of-town property purchases in urban and non-urban areas by NYC homebuyers increase by 79% and 187% relative to pre-COVID19 levels, respectively. We also find natural amenities, high-speed internet access, and the percent of the population with post-graduate education become more important factors in NYC homebuyers’ location decisions after COVID-19, while urban amenities’ attraction decreases. In addition, we show that higher COVID death and infection rates have a significant deterrence effect on NYC homebuyers’ reallocation decisions.
JEL Classifications
  • R2 - Household Analysis