Distributional Effects of Taxation and Public Expenditures
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)
- Chair: Siobhan O'Keefe, Davidson College
Measuring the Effects of the Global Tax Reform - Evidence from High-Frequency Data
Abstract
Over 140 countries agreed on a fundamental global corporate tax reform in 2021. The new framework includes a consumer-location-based profit taxation (Pillar 1) and a global minimum tax rate of 15% (Pillar 2). Using high-frequency asset price movements around the main events of the reform’s consensus process, we identify heterogeneous effects on individual companies’ and industries’ valuations as well as on countries’ public finances. We document that the stock prices of companies with a high share of foreign earnings and high levels of intangible assets like Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. drop significantly within minutes after the regulatory events. The price responses are persistent and grow in magnitude when focusing on longer time windows. At the country level, we document significant increases in credit default risk for countries like Ireland, Luxembourg, or small tax havens which attract disproportionately large amounts of companies’ profits under the current tax system. Collectively, our findings suggest that market participants expect the reform to impose significant costs on companies that pay relatively low taxes under the current system and reallocate a significant share of global corporate tax revenues to less developed countries with large consumer markets.Drought-Reliefs and Partisanship
Abstract
Partisan bias when transferring funds from central to local governments is an established phenomenon.We study the allocation of drought aid relief in Brazil. There, presidential and municipal elections alternate. We identify a novel pattern of distributive politics whereby the (expected) partisan bias disappears before presidential elections.
Furthermore, before mayoral elections, it fades for extreme (high or low) aridity levels while persisting for moderate levels, in which case alignment increases the probability of receiving aid relief by a factor of two (equivalent to 18.1 p.p.). We rationalise these findings in a model with symmetric information and office-motivated politicians.
Access to Public Goods within and across Local Governments: The Case of Road Quality
Abstract
Models in local public finance typically assume that local governments provide public goods of uniform quality across all neighborhoods, whereas those in urban economics assume amenities may vary freely across space. We study the distribution of road quality to estimate the degree to which access to public goods varies within and across local governments. We use a new dataset with more than 33,000 road segments across Los Angeles County, which covers all census tracts in its 88 cities and 80 school districts. To construct the data, we apply machine learning techniques to Google Street View imagery combined with administrative road quality measurements from two jurisdictions. We can then estimate the gradient of road quality with respect to household income both within and across local governments and search for spatial discontinuities in road quality across municipal boundaries. Finally, we investigate how the distribution of road quality differs between cities whose city council is elected at large as opposed to using electoral districts to gauge the contribution of electoral districts to the equitable distribution of road quality within local governments.JEL Classifications
- H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue