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Asset Pricing: Cross-section of Returns (Conditional)

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (CST)

Sheraton New Orleans, Napoleon D
Hosted By: American Finance Association
  • Chair: Serhiy Kozak, University of Maryland

Option Characteristics as Cross-Sectional Predictors

Andreas Neuhierl
,
Washington University-St. Louis
Xiaoxiao Tang
,
University of Texas-Dallas
Rasmus Varneskov
,
Copenhagen Business School
Guofu Zhou
,
Washington University-St. Louis

Abstract

We provide the first comprehensive analysis of option information for pricing the cross-section of stock returns by jointly examining extensive sets of firm and option characteristics. Using portfolio sorts and high-dimensional methods, we show that certain option measures have significant predictive power, even after controlling for firm characteristics, earning a Fama-French three-factor alpha in excess of 20% per annum. Our analysis further reveals that the strongest option characteristics are associated with information about asset mispricing and future tail return realizations. Our findings are consistent with models of informed trading and limits to arbitrage.

Missing Data in Asset Pricing Panels

Joachim Freyberger
,
University of Bonn
Bjoern Hoeppner
,
University of Bonn
Andreas Neuhierl
,
Washington University-St. Louis
Michael Weber
,
University of Chicago

Abstract

Missing data for return predictors is a common problem in cross sectional asset pricing studies. Most papers do not explicitly discuss how they treat missing data but conventional treatments focus on complete cases for all predictors or impute the unconditional mean for the missing predictor. Both methods have undesirable properties - they are either inefficient or lead to biased estimators and incorrect inference. We propose a simple and computationally attractive alternative approach using conditional mean imputations and weighted least squares. This method allows us to use all sample points with observed returns, it results in valid inference, and it can be applied in non-linear and high-dimensional settings. We map our estimator into a GMM framework to study its relative efficiency and find that it performs almost as well as the efficient but computationally costly GMM estimator in many cases. We apply our procedure to a large panel of return predictors and find that it leads to improved out-of-sample predictability.

Missing Financial Data

Svetlana Bryzgalova
,
London Business School
Sven Lerner
,
Stanford University
Martin Lettau
,
University of California-Berkeley
Markus Pelger
,
Stanford University

Abstract

Missing data is a prevalent, yet often ignored, feature of company fundamentals. In this paper, we document the structure of missing financial data and show how to systematically deal with it. In a comprehensive empirical study we establish four key stylized facts. First, the issue of missing financial data is profound: it affects over 70% of firms that represent about half of the total market cap. Second, the problem becomes particularly severe when requiring multiple characteristics to be present. Third, firm fundamentals are not missing-at-random, invalidating traditional ad-hoc approaches to data imputation and sample selection. Fourth, stock returns themselves depend on missingness. We propose a novel imputation method to obtain a fully observed panel of firm fundamentals. It exploits both time-series and cross-sectional dependency of firm characteristics to impute their missing values, while allowing for general systematic patterns of missing data. Our approach provides a substantial improvement over the standard leading empirical procedures such as using cross-sectional averages or past observations. Our results have crucial implications for many areas of asset pricing.

Discussant(s)
Steven Heston
,
University of Maryland
Markus Pelger
,
Stanford University
Michael Weber
,
University of Chicago
JEL Classifications
  • G1 - Asset Markets and Pricing