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Fintech, Financial Innovation, and Mortgage Lending

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)

Sheraton New Orleans, Bayside B
Hosted By: American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
  • Chair: James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks

Xiaoqing Zhou
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract

Financial technology-based (FinTech) lending is expected to ease U.S. mortgage market frictions that have weakened the transmission of monetary policy to households. This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in the spread of FinTech lending, further amplifying the effect of monetary stimulus. I provide causal estimates of the network effect of FinTech adoption: A one percentage-point increase in the FinTech market share in a county’s socially connected markets raises the county’s FinTech market share by 0.23-0.26 pps. To quantify the role of FinTech lending and its network spillover in the transmission of monetary policy shocks, I build a heterogeneous-agent model with social learning. The model shows that refinancing and consumption responses to a monetary stimulus are 13% higher in the presence of FinTech lending and network spillovers, and that almost half of this improvement is accounted for by network spillovers. Counterfactual analysis suggests that a rise of the FinTech market share to 70% would increase consumption and refinancing responses by 50%-60% relative to the same economy without FinTech lending.

Shadow Bank and Fintech Mortgage Securitization

Yu An
,
Johns Hopkins University
Lei Li
,
Federal Reserve Board
Zhaogang Song
,
Johns Hopkins University

Abstract

Agency MBS issuers can choose among three securitization venues: individual securitization where an issuer uses her own loans to create an MBS, collective securitization where different issuers deliver loans into a common MBS, and cash window where issuers receive immediate cash payment by selling loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, who then conduct securitization. We find that issuers with greater immediate liquidity needs (e.g., smaller issuers and shadow banks) have a larger fraction of their loans securitized through cash window. The uniform pricing feature of collective securitization results in cross-subsidy from traditional banks, who have relatively high-value loans, to shadow banks, especially fintech issuers, who have relatively low-value loans; hence, shadow banks and traditional banks prefer collective and individual securitization, respectively. We further show that securitization venues affect the quality and quantity of loans that issuers securitize, using Fannie Mae's policy shock on collective securitization and the COVID-19 shock on cash window.

Financial Technology and the 1990s Housing Boom

Stephanie Johnson
,
Rice University

Abstract

"This paper measures the effects of automated mortgage underwriting systems on leverage and house prices during the 1990s. In addition to reducing processing times, these systems expanded credit access by incorporating new rules informed by statistical analysis. In particular, Freddie Mac’s underwriting system, Loan Prospector, applied a proprietary set of rules which allowed lenders to approve loans with high debt-to-income ratios. I obtain a list of lenders who were using Loan Prospector shortly after its release in 1995, and use variation in the market share of these lenders to study the effect on house prices. I show that early adopters of Loan Prospector expanded high leverage lending, and that counties exposed to these lenders experienced substantial relative growth in house prices starting in 1995. Based on my estimates, I argue that gradual adoption of the GSEs’ underwriting systems can explain a substantial share of U.S. house price growth during the late 1990s"

Affordability, Financial Innovation, and the Start of the Housing Boom

Jane Dokko
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Benjamin Keys
,
University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Lindsay Ellen Relihan
,
Purdue University

Abstract

At their peak in 2005, nearly half of all purchase mortgage loans originated in the United States contained at least one non-traditional feature. These features, which allowed borrowers easier access to credit through teaser interest rates, interest-only or negative amortization periods, extended payment terms, and back-ended balloon payments have been the subject of much regulatory and popular criticism. In this paper, we construct a novel county-level dataset to analyze the relationship between rising house prices and non-traditional features of mortgage contracts. We apply a break-point methodology and find that in housing markets with breaks in the mid-2000s, a strong rise in the use of non-traditional mortgages preceded the start of the housing boom. Furthermore, their rise was coupled with declining denial rates and a shift from FHA to subprime mortgages. Our findings support the view that a change in mortgage contract availability and a shift toward subprime borrowers helped to fuel the rise of house prices during the last decade.

Discussant(s)
Jordan Nickerson
,
University of Washington
Paul Willen
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Lara Pia Loewenstein
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
James Conklin
,
University of Georgia
JEL Classifications
  • G2 - Financial Institutions and Services