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  4. Preliminary Program
  5. Costs of COVID-19
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Costs of COVID-19

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 7, 2022 12:15 PM - 2:15 PM (EST)

Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Robin McKnight, Wellesley College

Civil Liberties in Times of Crisis

Marcella Alsan
,
Harvard University
Stefanie Stantcheva
,
Harvard University
David Y. Yang
,
Harvard University
Luca Bragheri
,
University of Munich
Sarah Eichmeyer
,
University of Munich

Abstract

The respect for and protection of civil liberties are the one of the fundamental roles of the state, and many consider civil liberties as sacred and "nontradable." Using cross-country representative surveys that cover 15 countries and over 600,000 respondents between March 2020 and January 2021, we study whether and to what extent citizens are willing to trade off civil liberties during the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the largest crises in recent history. We find four main results. First, many around the world reveal a clear willingness to trade off civil liberties for improved public health conditions. Second, consistent across countries, exposure to health risks is associated with citizens' greater willingness to trade off civil liberties -- a one standard deviation increase in health risk closes the gap between the average U.S. and Chinese citizen by 10%. Another consistent finding is that individuals who are more economically or socially disadvantaged are less willing to sacrifice their rights, even in the face of higher health risk. Third, attitudes concerning such trade-offs are elastic to information. Fourth, we document a gradual decline and then plateau in citizens' overall willingness to sacrifice rights and freedoms as the pandemic progresses, though the correlation between individuals' worry about health and their attitudes over the trade-offs remains remarkably constant. Our results suggest that citizens do not view civil liberties as sacred values; rather, they are willing to trade off civil liberties more or less readily, depending on their own circumstances and information.

Social Repercussions of Pandemics

Philip Barrett
,
International Monetary Fund
Sophia Chen
,
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Historical accounts suggest that epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of
social unrest. We investigate this view systematically in two ways: using daily timing of disease outbreak and unrest during the COVID-19 pandemic; and in a dynamic monthly panel of 130 countries over the short- and medium-run. In both cases, the likelihood of unrest is lower in the immediate aftermath of epidemics. We show that limits on social interaction was an important driver of this result during COVID. In the broader sample, epidemics are are unique among disasters in reducing the likelihood of unrest, consistent with disease-specific limits on social contact. We argue that the opposite narrative from historical accounts likely derives from a non-systematic selection of cases and long-run relationships.

Living On My Own: The Impact of an Epidemic on Housing Preferences

Elisa Guglielminetti
,
Bank of Italy
Michele Loberto
,
Bank of Italy
Giordano Zevi
,
Bank of Italy
Roberta Zizza
,
Bank of Italy

Abstract

We quantify the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on Italian households' housing preferences exploiting new information on their search activity on the market. Data on house search comes from two unique datasets: the Italian Housing Market Survey, conducted quarterly on a large sample of real estate agents, and the universe of weekly housing sales advertisements taken from Immobiliare.it, a popular online portal for real estate services in Italy. The latter includes high-frequency and house-specific measures of online interest of potential home buyers. We find that the pandemic induced a large increase in demand for houses located in places with low population density, mainly driven by a sudden and significant shift in preferences towards larger, single-family housing units, endowed with outdoor spaces, which are mostly located in less congested area. We exploit the heterogeneity in government restrictions, the spread of contagion between Italian regions and the diffusion of home working to quantify the contribution of different factors to the changes in households' preferences. Only the changes induced by the possibility of working more from home are likely to be persistent.

Mental Health Care Consumption in the Pandemic: Estimating Impacts of Benefit Payments and Increased Access

Madeline Reed
,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
J. Michael Collins
,
University of Wisconsin-Madison

Abstract

Using the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, this study estimates the rate that people reported delaying needed mental health care services during the pandemic. Access to mental health increased with use of remote services, while households also had expanded liquidity to pay for out of pocket costs. However, neither stimulus payments nor higher levels of state tax income tax credits are associated with mental health care consumption. Especially for economically vulnerable households, the demands of other consumption are a higher priority than mental health care.

The Impact of Increased Access to Telemedicine

Dan Zeltzer
,
Tel Aviv University
Liran Einav
,
Stanford University and NBER
Joseph Rashba
,
Clalit Health Services
Ran D. Balicer
,
Clalit Health Services and Ben-Gurion University

Abstract

We estimate the effects of increased access to telemedicine that followed widespread adoption during the March-April 2020 lockdown period in Israel (due to COVID-19). We focus on the post-lockdown period, which in Israel was characterized by a partial (and temporary) return to normalcy. Prior to the lockdown, telemedicine accounted for about 5% of all primary-care visits, it peaked at around 40% during the lockdown, and remained high, at around 20%, during the post-lockdown period. Detailed medical records from Israel's largest healthcare provider, covering ten million primary care episodes between January 2019 and June 2020 allow us to study the system-wide impacts of shifting care remotely. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare primary care episodes before and after the lockdown, between patients with high and low access to telemedicine, defined based on their main primary care physician's propensity to adopt telemedicine during the lockdown. Increased access to telemedicine results in an increase in primary-care visits, but lower per-episode cost, so overall resource utilization is slightly lower. We find that remote visits involve slightly fewer prescriptions and more follow-ups, mainly with the same physician, which is consistent with prolonged diagnostic path in the absence of physical examination. However, analyzing specific conditions, we find no evidence for missed diagnoses or adverse outcomes. Taken together, our findings suggest that the increased convenience of telemedicine does not compromise care quality or raise cost.
JEL Classifications
  • I1 - Health