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Market Mispricing and Limits to Arbitrage

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)

Hosted By: American Finance Association
  • Chair: Mikhail Simutin, University of Toronto

Tracking Biased Weights: Asset Pricing Implications of Value-Weighted Indexing

Hao Jiang
,
Michigan State University
Dimitri Vayanos
,
London School of Economics
Lu Zheng
,
University of California-Irvine

Abstract

We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the prices of small stocks. Conversely, flows predict a high future return of the small-minus-large index portfolio. This finding runs counter to the CAPM, and arises when noise traders distort prices, biasing index weights. When funds tracking value-weighted indices experience inflows, they buy mainly stocks in high noise-trader demand, exacerbating the distortion. During our sample period 2000-2019, a small-minus-large portfolio of S&P500 stocks earns ten percent per year, while no size effect exists for non-index stocks.

A Multifactor Perspective on Volatility-Managed Portfolios

Victor DeMiguel
,
University of London
Alberto Martin-Utrera
,
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Raman Uppal
,
EDHEC Business School

Abstract

A fundamental result in finance is that return is related to risk. Moreira and Muir (2017) cast doubt on this by showing that one can time equity risk factors using their variance. However, Cederburg, O’Doherty, Wang, and Yan (2020) show these strategies fail out of sample and Barroso and Detzel (2020) show they do
not survive transaction costs. We develop a conditional mean-variance multifactor portfolio whose weights change with market volatility and outperforms even out of sample and net of transaction costs both unconditional multifactor portfolios and volatility-managed individual-factor portfolios. Our strategy performs particularly well during periods of high volatility. These results resurrect concerns about the
risk-return relation.

Benchmarking Intensity

Anna Pavlova
,
London Business School
Taisiya Sikorskaya
,
London Business School

Abstract

Benchmarking incentivizes fund managers to invest a fraction of their funds’ assets in their benchmark indices, and such demand is inelastic. We construct a measure of inelastic demand a stock attracts, benchmarking intensity (BMI), computed as its cumulative weight in all benchmarks, weighted by assets following each benchmark. Exploiting the Russell 1000/2000 cutoff, we show that changes in stocks’ BMIs instrument for changes in ownership of benchmarked investors. The resulting demand elasticities are low. We document that both active and passive fund managers buy additions to their benchmarks and sell deletions. Finally, an increase in BMI lowers future stock returns.

The Loan Fee Anomaly: A Short Seller’s Best Ideas

Joseph Engelberg
,
University of California-San Diego
Richard Evans
,
University of Virginia
Greg Leonard
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Adam Reed
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Matthew Ringgenberg
,
University of Utah

Abstract

We find that equity loan fees are the best predictor of cross-sectional returns. When compared to 102 other anomalies and other costs borne by short sellers, the loan fee anomaly has the highest monthly long-short return (1.17%), the highest monthly Sharpe Ratio (0.40), and unlike other anomalies, exhibits strong persistence throughout the sample. We show that 28% of the loan fee anomaly can be explained by its selective exposure to the best performing anomalies, while 72%is due to unique information possessed by short sellers. Future papers that examine or debate the predictability of cross sectional returns should include the single most effective predictor, loan fees.

Discussant(s)
Yang Song
,
University of Washington
Oliver Boguth
,
Arizona State University
Jonathan Berk
,
Stanford University
Juhani Linnainmaa
,
Dartmouth College
JEL Classifications
  • G0 - General