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  3. 2022
  4. Preliminary Program
  5. Globalization and Conflict
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Globalization and Conflict

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)

Hosted By: Peace Science Society International & American Economic Association
  • Chair: Carlos Seiglie, Rutgers University

Terrorism and Political Attitudes: Evidence from European Social Surveys

Giovanni Peri
,
University of California-Davis
Daniel I. Rees
,
University of Colorado-Denver
Brock Smith
,
Montana State University

Abstract

Since the turn of the last century, nationalistic political parties have been gaining support in Europe. Over the same period, terror attacks have increased. Using data from European Social Surveys (ESS), we examine the effects of terror attacks involving at least one fatality on attitudes towards immigrants and government institutions. Comparing within-country responses to the ESS shortly before and after fatal terror attacks, we find little evidence of a shift in attitudes against immigrants. Consistent with “rally-around-the flag” effects documented by political scientists, ESS respondents living in the region that was attacked tend to express more trust in parliament and more satisfaction with the national government in the post- as compared to the pre-attack period. Similarly, we find evidence that particularly salient terror attacks can produce nationwide rally-around-the-flag effects.

The Conflict of Predicting Conflict: The Importance of History and Religion

Michael Jetter
,
University of Western Australia
Rafat Mahmood
,
University of Western Australia
Christopher Parmeter
,
University of Miami
Andres Ramirez Hassan
,
EAFIT University

Abstract

Model uncertainty remains a persistent concern when exploring the drivers of civil conflict and civil war. Considering a comprehensive set of 34 potential determinants in 175 post-Cold-War countries (covering 98.2% of the world population), we employ stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) to sort through all 234 possible models. Looking across both cross-sectional and panel data, three robust results emerge. First, past conflict constitutes the most powerful predictor of current conflict: path dependency matters. Second, larger shares of Jewish, Muslim, or Christian citizens are associated with increased chances of conflict incidence and onset - a result that is independent of religious fractionalization, polarization, and dominance. Third, economic and political factors remain less relevant than colonial origin and religion. These results lend credence to several existing schools of thought on civil conflict and provide new avenues for future research.

International Friends and Enemies

Benny Kleinman
,
Princeton University
Ernest Liu
,
Princeton University
Stephen Redding
,
Princeton University, NBER and CEPR

Abstract

To what extent do nations’ economic interests in￿uence their political behavior? We pro- vide new evidence on this question using bilateral network measures of exposure to foreign economic growth and a range of measures of bilateral political behavior, including United Nations voting, strategic rivalries and formal alliances. Using exogenous variation from the natural experiments of China’s emergence into the global economy and reductions in the cost of air travel over time, we show that as a country becomes more economically dependent on a trade partner, it realigns politically towards that trade partner.

Paying Them to Hate Us: The Effect of United States Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968-2018

Eugen Dimant
,
University of Pennsylvania
Tim Krieger
,
University Of Freiburg
Daniel Meierrieks
,
WZB Berlin Social Science Center

Abstract

Does U.S. military aid make the United States safer? Or does it have unintended and
adverse consequences for U.S. security? We provide causal estimates of the effect of the U.S.
military aid on anti-American terrorism for a sample of 174 countries between 1968{2018
by exploiting plausibly exogenous time variation in global levels of U.S. military aid associated
with distinct aid programs and cross-national time-series variation in the relative
importance of the various military aid programs for recipient countries. We nd that higher
levels of military aid lead to an increased likelihood of the recipient country producing anti-
American terrorism. For our preferred instrumental-variable specification, doubling the U.S.
military aid increases the risk of anti-American terrorism by 2.7 percentage points. Examining
potential transmission channels, we nd that more U.S. military aid leads to more
corruption and exclusionary policies in recipient countries. We argue that U.S. military
aid results in anti-American terrorism by undermining institutions in recipient countries
and creating anti-American resentment among those parts of the population that do not
have direct or indirect access to bene ts arising from aid.

Discussant(s)
Elena Stancanelli
,
Paris School of Economics
Jun Xiang
,
Rutgers University-Newark
Solomon Polachek
,
State University of New York-Binghamton
Enrico Spolaore
,
Tufts University
JEL Classifications
  • F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
  • D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making