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  5. Causes and Consequences of Conflict
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Causes and Consequences of Conflict

Paper Session

Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)

Hosted By: Peace Science Society International
  • Chair: Raul Caruso, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart

Spurious Regressions and Panel IV Estimation: Revisiting the Causes of Conflict

Paul Christian
,
World Bank
Christopher B. Barrett
,
Cornell University

Abstract

Several recent empirical studies use instrument variables (IV) estimation strategies in panel data to try to identify statistically the causes of violent conflict. We explain how the long-recognized spurious regressions problem can lead to both bias and mistaken inference in panel IV studies given cycles in the time series component of the panel. We illustrate the problem by revisiting two recent, prominent studies that rely for identification on instruments exhibiting opposing cycles over time. The use of shift-share or other interacted instruments does not resolve the bias. When outcome variables are cointegrated with endogenous variables through policy preferences or some other mechanism, the bias can be in the same direction as the reverse causation the IV is meant to resolve. We close by outlining seven practical diagnostic steps researchers can follow to reduce the prospect of spurious regressions confounding panel IV estimation.

Information Operations Increase Civilian Security Cooperation

Konstantin Sonin
,
University of Chicago
Austin L. Wright
,
University of Chicago

Abstract

Information operations are considered a central element of modern warfare, yet there remains little, if any, systematic evidence of their effectiveness. Using a geographic quasi-experiment conducted during Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, we demonstrate that civilians exposed to the government’s information campaign resulted in more civilian security cooperation, which in turn increased bomb neutralizations. These results are robust to a number of alternative model specifications that account for troop presence and operations and other confounding factors. The core findings are also corroborated with evidence from a nationwide survey and large-scale analysis of intelligence reports and counterinsurgent operations. This note demonstrates that information campaigns can lead to welfare-enhancing attitudinal and behavioral changes in an adversarial environment and can substantially improve battlefield outcomes.

Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter

Francesco Giavazzi
,
Bocconi University
Felix Iglhaut
,
Bocconi University
Giacomo Lemoli
,
New York University
Gaia Rubera
,
Bocconi University

Abstract

We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats on the success of nationalist parties.
Discussant(s)
Maria Fernanda Rosales-Rueda
,
Rutgers University-Newark
Raul Caruso
,
Catholic University of the Sacred Heart
Phanindra V. Wunnava
,
Middlebury College and IZA
JEL Classifications
  • F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
  • H4 - Publicly Provided Goods