CSMGEP Dissertation Session
Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)
- Chair: Renee Bowen, University of California-San Diego
Petroleum Extraction, Agriculture, and the Local Communities in the Niger Delta. A Case of Ilaje Community
AbstractPetroleum resource exploration is a crucial economic activity that possesses the potential of contributing substantially to economic development through the material and financial resources generated from them. On the other hand, petroleum exploration and extraction often induce adverse impacts on other economic activities, especially agriculture and threatens biodiversity and environmental safety. Any asymmetry in the distribution of benefits and costs will deepen inequality and generate a social crisis. This study aims to assess and evaluate the impacts of petroleum resource exploration and extraction on agricultural productivity in the Niger Delta area. The study will be conducted in Ondo State and focuses on the Ilaje community (Ilaje Local Government Area). In order to isolate the exploration effects from the impact of other factors that may generally impede agricultural productivity in the state, some Local Government Areas which lie clearly outside of the oil exploration zone will be chosen as the control or comparison area for the study. Ilaje community and the control community have similar characteristics in terms of their traditional occupations which are large scale farming of cocoa, yam, cassava, maize, vegetables, palm produce, etc. The study will use comparative and descriptive data analysis techniques as a toolkit. The findings of this study will: enhance discussions regarding relief systems for the affected communities; provide mechanisms to improve agricultural productivity in Ilaje and the affected communities in the Niger Delta Area and ensure efficient channeling of the Niger Delta Development Commission resources.
Nowcasting Waterborne Commerce: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we use Bayesian techniques to develop nowcasts for the quantity of waterborne traffic in the United States in total and for the four primary commodities. These waterborne traffic levels are released with a considerable time lag, but yet are of current interest. Nowcasts (i.e. predictions of the waterborne traffic levels to be re- leased based on other variables that are available) have been constructed using an array of different variables and techniques. However, the large number of potential predictor variables and changes in the distribution of traffic levels leads to both model and esti- mation uncertainty, which has likely hampered the accuracy of these existing nowcasts. We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to create nowcasts, which confronts model and estimation uncertainty directly via the averaging of models with different sets of predictors. We also use rolling window techniques to account for possible changes in the nowcasting relationship over time. Based on a variety of evaluation metrics, we find that BMA substantially improves nowcast accuracy.
Financial Inclusion: A Policy Impact Assessment
AbstractIn this paper, I study the impact of Nigeria’s Financial Inclusion Strategy on consumption as an indicator of individual well-being. In 2012, the Central Bank of Nigeria implemented the Strategy for Financial Inclusion. One of the many goals of the strategy was to design affordable financial products and services in an effort to increase participation of low-income groups in the formal financial sector. Using six years of detailed data from Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), I examine the effectiveness of Nigeria’s 2012 strategy for financial inclusion on different income groups and geographical areas across Nigeria.
Work Half-Time, Receive Full-Time Pay: Effect of Novel Family Policy on Female Labor Market Outcomes
AbstractMany countries provide paid family leave to increase female labor force participation, improve gender equality, and foster family wellbeing. Yet, a large percentage of women do not return to work after maternity leave. Can a policy that allows flexible reintroduction to work increase labor force participation after childbirth? To answer this question, I study a unique subsidy implemented in Uruguay in 2014 that allows mothers to work half-time while receiving full-time pay for four months after maternity leave ends. I use eleven years of employment survey data in a difference-in-differences and triple difference framework and find an increase in the likelihood of employment of 17% for eligible mothers up to 1 year after childbirth, and a decrease in hours worked of 5% without a significant reduction in income up to 3 years after childbirth. These findings demonstrate that policies easing the transition back from maternity leave can increase female labor force participation and reduce “child-penalties” in the short and medium-run.
- A1 - General Economics