« Back to Results

Climate Change Economics

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 4, 2021 3:45 PM - 5:45 PM (EST)

Hosted By: Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
  • Chair: Katherine Wagner, Stanford University

Grand Challenges and Local Beliefs: How Belief in Climate Change Relates to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in United States Manufacturing Facilities

Thomas Lyon
,
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
Glen Dowell
,
Cornell University
Rebecca Pickens
,
Cornell University

Abstract

There remains significant disparity in the degree to which people agree with the scientific evidence that greenhouse gas emissions are the leading cause of climate change. We provide the first empirical evidence on whether that degree of belief is associated with changes in firms’ behaviors. We combine data from the EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) with a survey that assesses climate change belief at the county level in the United States. For each facility, we include data on beliefs at the local level as well as at corporate headquarters. In order to control for changes in facility-specific production levels over time, we link our data to the EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory, which reports facility-level data on production ratios from year to year. We also include demographic data on racial makeup and political and religious affiliations at the local level; state and local climate policies; and the presence of environmental activists in the local area. We find that facilities located in counties with stronger climate change beliefs demonstrate greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over time. Moreover, the effect is substantial: by the end of our sample period, a facility in an area where only 33% of residents express climate concerns would emit 29% more greenhouse gases than a comparable facility in an area where 69% of residents express concern.
The effect of local beliefs is stronger for facilities located a greater distance from corporate headquarters. In addition, facilities whose headquarters are located in areas with strong climate beliefs show greater sensitivity to local beliefs, as do facilities whose parent company is an EPA Climate Leader. Our results speak to the literature on environmental performance and to research on the role of community norms in influencing firm behavior and knowledge transfer.

Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?

Simon Dietz
,
London School of Economics
Frederick van der Ploeg
,
University of Oxford
Armon Rezai
,
Vienna University of Economics and Business
Frank Venmans
,
University of Mons

Abstract

We show that economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with current climate science models: (i) the delay between CO2 emissions and warming is much too long and (ii) positive carbon cycle feedbacks are mostly absent. These inconsistencies lead to biased economic policy advice. Controlling for how the economy is represented, different climate models result in significantly different optimal CO2 emissions. A long delay between emissions and warming leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low and attaches too much importance to the discount rate. Similarly we find that omitting positive carbon cycle feedbacks leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low. We conclude it is important for policy purposes to bring economic models in line with the state of the art in climate science and we make
practical suggestions for how to do so.

Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk

Givi Melkadze
,
Georgia State University
Garth Heutel
,
Georgia State University
Stefano Carattini
,
Georgia State University

Abstract

We study climate and macroprudential policies when financial frictions are present. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring both a pollution market failure and a market failure in the financial sector, we explore transition risk - whether ambitious climate policy can lead to macroeconomic instability. It can, but the risk can be alleviated through macroprudential policies - taxes or subsidies on banks' assets. Then, we explore efficient climate and macroprudential policy in the long run and over business cycles. The presence of financial frictions affects the steady-state value and dynamic properties of the efficient carbon tax. In a second-best world, macroprudential policy can be used to address the pollution externality, but not very effectively.

Beating the Heat: Temperature and Spatial Reallocation over the Short and Long-run

Christos Andreas Makridis
,
Arizona State University
Tyler Ransom
,
University of Oklahoma

Abstract

Does temperature affect real economic activity? Using the annual Current Population Survey between 1963 and 2015, we show that there is no association between temperature and earnings, hours, or output after controlling for time-invariant spatial heterogeneity and time-varying demographic factors. These results are robust to five separate sources of microdata, different sampling horizons, functional forms, spatial measures of temperature, and subsets of the data. This paper studies the relationship between temperature and productivity across space and time. Motivated by these null results, we develop a spatial equilibrium model where temperature can affect not only firm productivity, but also individual locational choice. After estimating the model, we use it to disentangle the role of reallocation versus actual productivity losses in the U.S. economy between 1980 and 2015. Nearly all of the variation is driven by reallocation. We subsequently use the model to evaluate a counterfactual climate scenario and recover a new spatial equilibrium for the U.S. economy by 2050.
Discussant(s)
Marion Dumas
,
London School of Economics
Sathya Gopalakrishnan
,
Ohio State University
Margaret Insley
,
University of Waterloo
Katherine Wagner
,
Stanford University
JEL Classifications
  • Q5 - Environmental Economics