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Migration and Housing

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 4, 2021 12:15 PM - 2:15 PM (EST)

Hosted By: American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
  • Chair: Jessie Handbury, University of Pennsylvania

Household Formation, Migration and Black Population Decline in American Cities

Evan Mast
,
W.E. Upjohn Institute
Alexander W. Bartik
,
University of Illinois

Abstract

Since 2000, all of the ten largest central cities in the United States have lost Black population. The decline has been especially large in high-poverty neighborhoods and neighborhoods that were originally majority Black in 1970. We use novel data to investigate the sources of these population changes in more detail than previous research. We find that, contrary to the policy debate's focus on Black outmigration, net migration of adult households to either suburbs or other states is similar across central city neighborhoods with different racial compositions. Instead, the primary difference appears to be that Black neighborhoods attract and retain fewer young adults, whether from the same neighborhood or others. Historically, demographic flows in Black neighborhoods have changed greatly since earlier times of growth---the end of the Great Migration reduced in-migration from other states by about two-thirds.

‘Not in My Backyard!’ The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany

Kathleen Kuerschner Rauck
,
University of St.Gallen

Abstract

This paper exploits the sudden mass arrival of refugees to Germany in 2015 to study potential price penalties suffered by residential property in vicinity of refugee reception centers (RRCs). Using novel data on exact locations of publicly-run RRCs in 2014 and 2015 and monthly offers of single-family homes for sale from Germany’s leading online property broker ImmobilienScout24, we find strong evidence in spatial DiD regressions for a sizeable negative effect on house price growth in proximity to such sites. Detached and semi-detached houses located within a 15-minute walking distance of RRCs exhibit on average 13 percentage points lower price growth than comparable dwellings beyond this threshold. We corroborate our finding in a battery of robustness tests and additional explorations, including sample restrictions that consider exclusively property on offer for sale within 40 minutes walking distance to RRCs and exogenous variation in the exposure to such sites. ‘Not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) stances among the resident population may explain our finding.

Sort Selling: Political Affiliation and Households’ Real Estate Decisions

William Ben McCartney
,
Purdue University
Calvin Zhang
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract

Partisanship and polarization are salient features of today’s political environment. Using a dataset that matches registered voters and their political affiliations to their real estate transactions, we identify that political polarization has a real economic effect on household decisionmaking. Descriptively, homeowners are more likely to sell their homes and less likely to refinance their mortgages as the share of opposite-party neighbors increases. We implement a new-nextdoor-neighbor identification strategy to confirm causality. Consistent with a partisanship mechanism, our results are weaker for apathetic households and have strengthened in recent years. Our findings shed light on what drives residential sorting and help explain increases in political segregation.

Local Cultural Attributes, Settlement Patterns and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from Spanish Toponymy in the United States

Albert Saiz
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Abstract

To what degree are local outcomes driven by economic fundamentals versus historical accident? In this paper, we find a strong association between Spanish place names and local Hispanic population densities in Arizona, California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Texas. In addition, the proximity to historical Spanish colonial routes is found to be a significant predictor of both Spanish-place etymology and contemporaneous ethnicity. An observably-similar and geographically-proximate US community that only differs from another by its Spanish toponymy contains a 10 percent larger Hispanic population on average. These associations were already strong 40 years ago, but recent Latino immigrants have also been more likely to locate in places with Spanish names. These results with respect to a seemingly-irrelevant local economic attribute underscore the historical resilience of settlement patterns based on cultural affinity and kinship networks. In future work we will explore the economic impact of such long-term migratory patterns on local economies.
Discussant(s)
Patrick Bayer
,
Duke University
Stephan Heblich
,
University of Toronto
Milena Almagro
,
New York University
Joan Monras
,
Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona GSE and CEPR
JEL Classifications
  • R0 - General