Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM
Hyatt Regency Chicago, Addams
- Chair: Paulina Oliva, University of California-Santa Barbara
Long-Term Impacts of High Temperatures on Human Capital and Economic Productivity
AbstractHigh temperature anomalies have recently been shown to have adverse short-term impacts on multiple health and socio-economic outcomes. A well established literature on the impacts of early life stress on life-long human capital accumulation has led us to hypothesize that high temperature anomalies can also have long-term impacts on economic productivity. Using unique data sets on historical weather and the earnings, place and date of birth of all 1.5 million formal employees in Ecuador, we find that women who have experienced a 1C increase in average temperature while in-utero earn 1.1%-1.7% less as adults. The results are highly robust and suggest warming may already have caused adverse long-term economic losses in the pipeline that have not been appreciated to date.
Estimating Global Agro-Economic Impacts of Geoengineering Using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments
AbstractSolar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered a realistic, or even necessary, option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. This paper provides the first empirical estimate of the total effect of these stratospheric aerosol-induced changes in temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and insolation on agricultural yields. While the impacts of SRM's temperature- and precipitation-mediated impacts on global crop yields have been studied, the insolation impacts of stratospheric aerosols on yields have never been empirically estimated. Since photosynthesis tends to decrease with reductions in total insolation and increase with the diffuse fraction, the net impact of scattering incoming light on agricultural yield is ambiguous. Here we estimate the insolation-mediated effect of stratospheric aerosols on global agriculture using the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments. We find that, after flexibly controlling for potentially confounding climate variables, the insolation-mediated impact of stratospheric aerosols on yields is negative for maize, soy, rice and wheat. Further, we find that the insolation effect is less negative for C3 crops than for C4 crops, as well as for aerosols that are more forward scattering. We calculate the total effect of stratospheric aerosols on yields by linking our empirical crop model to a earth system model (ESM), which simulates future temperature, precipitation and cloud cover in both climate change and climate change with SRM scenarios. We find that SRM provides little to no net benefit to global agricultural production because its cooling benefits are offset by similarly-sized insolation-mediated damages. The framework developed in this paper to estimate the direct and indirect effects of SRM on agriculture could be used to analyze other potential impacts, such as those on health, energy production, or labor productivity.
Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Rural Electrification
AbstractExperimental Evidence on the Impacts of Rural Electrification
- Q0 - General