ANNUAL MEETING

ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS

Note: The American Economic Association has posted AEA Conference Papers presented at the 2006 ASSA Conference on the AEA Web site; over 285 papers were received and posted from 2006.

Boston, MA, January 6-8, 2006

Friday, January 6, 2006

Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Social Preferences, Trust, and Economic Interactions

Presiding: IRIS BOHNET, Harvard University

MARTIN SANDBU, Columbia University—The Road Not Taken: A Theory of Set-Dependent Fairness Preferences

BRIAN ROE and STEVEN WU, Ohio State University—Social Preferences and Relational Contracting

IRIS BOHNET, Harvard University, FIONA GREIG, Harvard University, BENEDIKT HERRMANN, University of Nottingham, and RICHARD ZECKHAUSER, Harvard University—Betrayal Aversion on Four Continents

Discussants: ARMIN FALK, University of Bonn
LORENZ GÖTTE, University of Zurich
KARLA HOFF, World Bank


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Topics in Health Care Economics

Presiding: RANDALL ELLIS, Boston University

JOHN CAWLEY, Cornell University, and JOHN RIZZO, State University of New York-Stony Brook—Do Prescription Drug Withdrawals Yield Competitive Benefits to, or Impose Negative Spillovers on, Remaining Drugs in the Therapeutic Class?

ILAN GUEDJ, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Ownership vs. Contract: How Vertical Integration Affects Investment Decisions in Pharmaceutical R&D

ERIC HELLAND, Claremont McKenna College, and MARK SHOWALTER, Brigham Young University—The Impact of Liability on the Physician Labor Market

GUY DAVID, University of Pennsylvania—The Convergence Between For-Profit and Nonprofit Hospitals in the United States

Discussants: RICHARD FRANK, Harvard Medical School
MONICA NOETHER, Charles River Associates


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

New Perspectives on the Impacts of Tax Policy

Presiding: JEFFREY LIEBMAN, Harvard University

NAOMI FELDMAN, Ben-Gurion University, and PETER KATUSCAK, University of California-San Diego—Should the Average Tax Rate Be Marginalized

WINFRIED KOENIGER, IZA, and CHARLES GRANT, University of Reading—Redistributive Taxation and Personal Bankruptcy in U.S. States

LIBOR DUSEK, CERGE-EI—Do Governments Grow When They Become More Efficient? Evidence from Tax Withholding

Discussants: JEFFREY LIEBMAN, Harvard University
MICHELLE WHITE, University of California-San Diego
WOJCIECH KOPCZUK, Columbia University


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

The Economics of Paying Too Much (D0)

Presiding: ULRIKE MALMENDIER, Stanford University

SUMIT AGARWAL, Bank of America, JOHN DRISCOLL, Federal Reserve Board, XAVIER GABAIX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and DAVID LAIBSON, Harvard University—Fool Me Twice

MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago, DEAN KARLAN, Princeton University, SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, Harvard University, ELDAR SHAFIR, Princeton University, and JONATHAN ZINMAN, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston—What's Psychology Worth?  A Field Experiment in the Consumer Credit Market

HAN LEE and ULRIKE MALMENDIER, Stanford University—Do Consumers Know Their Willingness to Pay? Evidence from eBay Auctions

Discussants: STEFANO DELLAVIGNA, University of California-Berkeley
LAWRENCE AUSUBEL, University of Maryland
JOHN MORGAN, University of California-Berkeley


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Economics of Marriage and Dating Markets

Presiding: DEREK NEAL, University of Chicago

RAYMOND FISMAN, SHEENA IYENGAR, Columbia University, EMIR KAMENICA, Harvard University, and ITAMAR SIMONSON, Stanford University—Dating: Theory and Experimental Evidence

DAN ARIELY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, GUENTER HITSCH, and ALI HORTACSU, University of Chicago—What Makes You Click: An Empirical Analysis of On-Line Dating

KERWIN CHARLES, University of Michigan—Incarceration and Marriage Markets

Discussants: JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania
BETSEY STEVENSON, University of Pennsylvania
DEREK NEAL, University of Chicago


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

International Transmission of Business Cycles

Presiding: ENRIQUE MENDOZA, University of Maryland

GEORGE ALESSANDRIA, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and HORAG CHOI, University of Auckland—Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?

ANTHONY LANDRY, Boston University—Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A State-Dependent Pricing Approach

ARIEL BURSTEIN, University of California-Los Angeles, CHRISTOPHER JOHANN KURZ, and LINDA TESAR, University of Michigan—Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

Discussants: VIRGILIU MIDRIGAN, Ohio State University
MARIO CRUCINI, Vanderbilt University
AYHAN KOSE, International Monetary Fund


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Real-Time Data Analysis and Forecasting (E0)

Presiding: DEAN CROUSHORE, University of Richmond

DAVID JOHNSON, Wilfried Laurier University—Using Real-Time Private Sector Forecasts and Central Bank Projections to
Understand Monetary-Policy Reaction Functions


BORAGAN ARUOBA, University of Maryland—Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved

DEAN CROUSHORE, University of Richmond—An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data

MATTHEW CUSHING, University of Nebraska-Lincoln—How Persistent Are Shocks to GDP? Evidence from the Forecasting Community


Discussants: JOHN WILLIAMS, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
TOM STARK, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
SEAN CAMPBELL, Federal Reserve Board
SHARON KOZICKI, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Multiple-Father Families (J1)

Presiding: V. JEFFEREY EVANS, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

CHRISTINA GIBSON-DAVIS, Duke University, and KATHERINE MAGNUSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison—Explaining the Patterns of Child Support among
Low-Income Noncustodial Fathers


NATASHA CABRERA, University of Maryland-College Park—Who Is My Daddy? Multiple Fathers in Low-Income Families

CHIEN-CHUNG HUANG, Rutgers University, and RONALD MINCY, Columbia University—The Hand or the Heart: The Adverse Effects of Multiple Partner Fertility on Family Formation

Discussants: ROBERT MOFFITT, Johns Hopkins University
DONNA GINTHER, University of Kansas
EIRIK EVENHOUSE, University of California-San Francisco


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Understanding Crime

Presiding: STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago

ANNA AIZER, Brown University—The Economics of Domestic Violence

NACI MOCAN, University of Colorado-Denver, and ERDAHL TEKIN, Georgia State University—Ugly Criminal

LAN SHI, University of Washington-Seattle—Does Oversight Reduce Policing? Evidence from the Cincinnati Police Department After the April 2001 Riot

Discussants: SONIA OREFFICE, University of Connecticut
DANIEL HAMERMESH, University of Texas-Austin
EMILY OWENS, University of Maryland


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Academic, Innovation, and Technology Transfers

Presiding: PHILIPPE AGHION, Harvard University

SAUL LACH, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and MARK SCHANKERMAN, London School of Economics—Incentives, Constraints and Objectives in Technology Licensing Offices

SCOTT STERN, Northwestern University—Do Formal Intellectual Property Rights Hinder the Free Flow of Scientific Knowledge? A Test of the Anti-Commons Hypothesis

NICOLA LACETERA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Multiple Missions and Academic Entrepreneurship

PHILIPPE AGHION, Harvard University, MATHIAS DEWATRIPONT, ECARES, Belgium, and JEREMY STEIN, Harvard University—Academic Freedom and the Process of Innovation

Discussants: REBECCA HENDERSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSHUA LERNER, Harvard Business School


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

The Family, Institutions, and Economic Growth

Presiding: JOEL MOKYR, Northwestern University

MICHELE TERTILT and TODD SCHOELLMAN, Stanford University—Marriage Laws and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

ODED GALOR, Brown University and ANDREW MOUNTFORD, Royal Holloway, University of London—Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection

LENA EDLUND, Columbia University—Individual vs. Parental Consent in Marriage: Implications for Intra-Household Resource Allocation and Growth

AVNER GREIF, Stanford University—Family Structure, Institutions, and Growth: The Origin and Implications of
Western Corporatism

Discussants: DAVID WEIL, Brown University
JOEL MOKYR, Northwestern University
MATTHIAS DOEPKE, University of California-Los Angeles
PHILIP T. HOFFMAN, Cal Tech


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Teaching and Testing in Undergraduate Economics (A2)

Presiding: MICHAEL WATTS, Purdue University

MICHAEL WATTS, Purdue University, and WILLIAM BECKER, Indiana University—A Little More Than Chalk and Talk: Results from a Third National Survey of Teaching Methods in Undergraduate Economics Courses

KIMMARIE McGOLDRICK, University of Richmond—The Senior Experience for Economics Majors: Results from a Survey of Departmental Practices

WILLIAM WALSTAD, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and MICHAEL WATTS, Purdue University—The Test of Understanding of College Economics: Revision and Preliminary Results

PAUL W. GRIMES, Mississippi State University, JANE S. LOPUS, California State University-Hayward, RODNEY A. PEARSON, Mississippi State University, and WILLIAM BECKER, Indiana University—Do Economists Know Human Subject Requirements?

Discussants: CHARLES HOLT, University of Virginia
JOHN J. SIEGFRIED, Vanderbilt University
THEODORE BERGSTROM, University of California-Santa Barbara
CLAUDIA PARLIAMENT, University of Minnesota

Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Theoretical Political Economy (D7)

Presiding: CHRISTIAN SCHULTZ, University of Copenhagen

ALEKSANDER BERENTSEN, University of Basel, ESTHER BRUEGGER, University of California, Los Angeles, and SIMON LOERTSCHER, University of Bern—Learning, Voting and the Information Trap

DAN KOVENOCK and BRIAN ROBERSON, Purdue University—Electoral Poaching and Party Identification

ELENA PANOVA, GREMAQ, Université des Sciences Sociales Toulouse-1—The Choice of Political Action: A Case Against Independence

CHRISTIAN SCHULTZ, University of Copenhagen—Information, Polarization and Accountability in Democracy

Discussants: CHRISTIAN SCHULTZ, University of Copenhagen
TORSTEN PERSSON, IIES, Stockholm University
DAN KOVENOCK, Purdue University
ELENA PANOVA, GREMAQ, Université des Sciences Sociales Toulouse-1


Jan. 6, 8:00 am
AEA

Inattention and Consumption Behavior (D9)

Presiding: ANDREW CAPLIN, New York University

RICARDO REIS, Princeton University—Inattentive Consumers

JOHN AMERIKS, Vanguard Group, ANDREW CAPLIN, and JOHN LEAHY, New York University—The Absent-Minded Consumer

LUIGI GUISO, University of Chicago, and TULLIO JAPPELLI, University of Salerno, Italy—Information Acquisition, Overconfidence and Portfolio Performance

ANNAMARIA LUSARDI, Dartmouth College, and OLIVIA MITCHELL, University of Pennsylvania—Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing

Discussants: RAJ CHETTY, University of California-Berkeley
ERIK HURST, University of Chicago
NICHOLAS SOULELES, University of Pennsylvania
JOHN AMERIKS, Vanguard Group


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Special Invited Lecture

Presiding: DAVID CARD, University of California-Berkeley

ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University—The New, New Thing in Labor Economics


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

The Economics of Regulating Financial Markets: Perspectives from Former SEC Chief Economists (Roundtable) (G1)

Presiding: CHESTER SPATT, Carnegie Mellon University and Securities and Exchange Commission

LARRY HARRIS, University of Southern California
KENNETH LEHN, University of Pittsburgh
ERIK SIRRI, Babson College


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Empirical Studies of Markets with Asymmetric Information (D8)

Presiding: PIERRE-ANDRE CHIAPPORI, Columbia University

AMY FINKELSTEIN and JAMES POTERBA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Asymmetric Information and the Choice of Risk Factors for Insurance Pricing

DEAN KARLAN, Yale University, and JONATHAN ZINMAN, Dartmouth College—Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with Consumer-Credit Field Experiment

THOMAS DAVIDOFF and GERD WELKE, University of California-Berkeley—Selection and Moral Hazard in the Reverse Mortgage Market

Discussants: PIERRE-ANDRE CHIAPPORI, Columbia University
ALESSANDRO LIZZERI, New York University
JONATHAN LEVIN, Stanford University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Efficiency Gains and Social Security Reform (H5)

Presiding: ALAN GUSTMAN, Dartmouth College

JOHN LAITNER and DANIEL SILVERMAN, University of Michigan—Social Security Reform: Changing Incentives for When to Retire

KENT SMETTERS, University of Pennsylvania—Social Security Privatization with Elastic Labor Supply and Second-Best Taxes

DAVID CUTLER and JEFFREY LIEBMAN, Harvard University—How Fast Should the Social Security Retirement Age Rise?

Discussants: DANIEL SILVERMAN, University of Michigan
GARY BURTLESS, Brookings Institution
OLIVIA MITCHELL, University of Pennsylvania


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Research on Teaching Innovations (A2)

Presiding: CHARLES BALLARD, Michigan State University

SUSAN POZO, Western Michigan University, and CHARLES A. STULL, Kalamazoo College—Requiring a Math Skills Unit: Results of a Randomized Experiment

SHERYL B. BALL, CATHERINE C. ECKEL, and CHRISTIAN ROJAS, Virginia Tech—Technology Improves Learning in Large Principles of Economics Classes: Using Our WITS*

WAYNE A GROVE, LeMoyne College, and TIM WASSERMAN, Syracuse University—Incentives and Student Learning: A Natural Experiment with Economics Problem Sets

Discussants: JULIAN BETTS, University of California-San Diego
FRANK LEVY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDWARD MIGUEL, University of California-Berkeley

Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Kyoto and Beyond: Alternative Approaches to Global Warming

Presiding: GEOFFREY HEAL, Columbia University

SCOTT BARRETT, Johns Hopkins University—R&D and Adoption of 'Breakthrough' Technologies in a Strategic Climate Change Treaty System

WILLIAM PIZER, Resources for the Future—The Evolution of a Global Climate Change Agreement

WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Yale University—Beyond Kyoto: A Carbon Tax Alternative

SHEILA OLMSTEAD, Yale University, and ROBERT STAVINS, Harvard University—An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era

Discussants: JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University
DAVID VICTOR, Stanford University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Information Aggregation in Prediction Markets (D8)

Presiding: JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania

STEVEN GJERSTAD, University of Arizona—Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium

JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University—Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

CHARLES MANSKI, Northwestern University—Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

CHARLES R. PLOTT and KEVIN ROUST, Cal Tech—Parimutuel-Type Processes as Information Aggregation Mechanisms

Discussants: ROBIN HANSON, George Mason University
COLIN CAMERER, Cal Tech


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Jump-Starting Your Career: Ph.D. +/-3 (Panel Discussion)

Presiding: DANIEL HAMERMESH, University of Texas-Austin
FRANCINE BLAU, Cornell University
JUDITH CHEVALIER, Yale University
JOEL MOKYR, Northwestern University
ROBERT POLLAK, Washington University-St. Louis
RICHARD STARTZ, University of Washington
LINDA TESAR, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

African Economic Development

Presiding: CHARLES JONES, University of California-Berkeley

CHRISTOPHER UDRY, Yale University—The Local Politics of Property Rights: Access to Land and Power in Ghana

EDWARD MIGUEL, University of California-Berkeley, RACHEL GLENNERSTER, MIT Poverty Action Lab, and KATE WHITESIDE, Government of Sierra Leone—Civil Conflict and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone

MARCOS CHAMON, International Monetary Fund, and MICHAEL KREMER, Harvard University and Brookings Institution—Asian Growth and African Development

Discussants: ERICA FIELD, Harvard University
KENNETH LEONARD, University of Maryland
DAVID WEIL, Brown University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Economic and Policy Issues Facing the U.S. Hispanic Community (J1)

Presiding: ENRIQUE FIGUEROA, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

RICHARD FREEMAN, National Bureau of Economic Research, and WILLIAM RODGERS, Rutgers University—What’s Been the Impact of the Weak Jobs Recovery on Hispanics?

MARK LOPEZ, University of Maryland, and MARIE MORA, University of Texas-Pan American—The Earnings of U.S. and Foreign-Born Hispanic Faculty

BARBARA ROBLES, University of Texas-Austin—Latino Family and Community Wealth Building: Linking the Earned Income Tax Credit to Asset Building in the Borderlands

Discussants: KRISTA PERREIRA, University of North Carolina
MIGUEL D. RAMIREZ, Trinity College
SUE STOCKLY, Eastern New Mexico University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Capital Controls: Blessing or Curse? (F3)

Presiding: CARMEN REINHART, University of Maryland

SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, University of California-Los Angeles, and ROBERTO RIGOBON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Capital Controls, Managed Exchange Rates, and External Vulnerability

GRACIELA KAMINSKY, George Washington University, and SERGIO SCHMUKLER, World Bank—Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization

NICOLAS MAGUD, University of Oregon, CARMEN REINHART, University of Maryland, and KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University—Capital Controls: Myth and Reality

Discussants: SHANG-JIN WEI, International Monetary Fund
KRISTIN FORBES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MENZIE CHINN, University of Wisconsin


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Measuring and Interpreting Trends in Economic Inequality (J3)

Presiding: LAWRENCE KATZ, Harvard University

DAVID AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, LAWRENCE KATZ, Harvard University, and MELISSA KEARNEY, Wellesley College—The Polarization of the U. S. Labor Market [Appendix]

THOMAS LEMIEUX, University of British Columbia—Why Is Wage Inequality Still Growing? The Role of Composition and Cohort Effects

THOMAS PIKETTY, EHESS and CEPREMAP, and EMMANUEL SAEZ, University of California-Berkeley—The Evolution of Top Incomes: A Historical and International Perspective

Discussants: ELI BERMAN, University of California-San Diego
AMITABH CHANDRA, Dartmouth College
LAWRENCE KATZ, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Economic Consequences of Social Identity (Z1)

Presiding: ERNST FEHR, University of Zurich

KARLA HOFF, World Bank, and PRIYANKA PANDEY, Pennsylvania State University—Caste Identity, Belief Systems and Durable Inequalities

LORENZ GÖTTE, University of Zurich, DAVID HUFFMAN, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), and STEPHAN MEIER, University of Zurich—Group Identity in Organizations: Evidence from an Experiment in the Battlefield

HELEN BERNARD, ERNST FEHR, and URS FISCHBACHER, University of Zurich—Tribal Identity and Altruistic Norm Enforcement

Discussants: RACHEL CROSON, University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT GIBBONS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

Political Economy (P4)

Presiding: JAMES ROBINSON, Harvard University

TIMOTHY BESLEY, London School of Economics—Trust and Political Accountability

TORSTEN PERSSON, Stockholm University, and GUIDO TABELLINI, Bocconi University —Democracy and Development: The Devil is in the Details

DARON ACEMOGLU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and JAMES ROBINSON, Harvard University—De Facto Political Power and Institutional Persistence

Discussants: ANTONIO MERLO, University of Pennsylvania
BENJAMIN OLKEN, Harvard University
NATHAN NUNN, University of British Columbia


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA

The Effects of EMU After Five Years (F3)

Presiding: FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI, European Central Bank

PHILIP LANE, University of Dublin—The Real Effects of EMU

BENT E. SORENSEN, University of Houston—The Impact of the EMU on the Channels of Risk Sharing between Member Countries

KATHRYN DOMINGUEZ, University of Michigan—The ECB, the Euro and Global Financial Markets

PAUL DE GRAUWE, University of Leuven, and FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI, European Central Bank—Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What Brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer Together?

Discussants: FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI, European Central Bank
PHILIP LANE, University of Dublin
PAUL DE GRAUWE, University of Leuven
BENT E. SORENSEN, University of Houston


Jan. 6, 10:15 am
AEA/HERO

Economic Analysis of the Medicare Modernization Act

Presiding: DONALD E. YETT, University of Southern California

STEPHEN T. PARENTE, ROGER FELDMAN, JEAN ABRAHAM, and JOHN CHRISTIANSON, University of Minnesota—Assessing the Impact of Health Savings Accounts on Insurance and Coverage Costs

STEVEN D. PIZER, AUSTIN FRAKT, Boston University and VA Boston Health Care Systems, and ROGER FELDMAN, University of Minnesota—Stormclouds on the Horizon? Predicting Adverse Selection in Medicare Prescription Drug Plans

JOSEPH ANTOS, American Enterprise Institute—Will Competition Return to Medicare?

Discussants: HENRY J. AARON, Brookings Institution
PHILIP ELLIS, Congressional Budget Office
JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 12:30 pm
AEA/AFA

Joint Luncheon

Presiding: JOHN CAMPBELL, Harvard University

JAMES POTERBA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Special Invited Lecture

Presiding: OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ANDREI SHLEIFER, Harvard University—Not the Whole Truth: The Economics of Persuasion


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Relative Income and Utility (D6)

Presiding: JANET YELLEN, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

ANDREW CLARK, PSE, CNRS, DELTA, IZA, and FABRICE ETILE, INRA-Corela—Values, Votes and Slopes: Political Behavior and the Marginal Utility of Income

ERZO LUTTMER, Harvard University—Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being

RAFAEL LALIVE and ALOIS STUTZER, University of Zurich—Approval of Equal Rights and Gender Differences in Well-Being

MARY DALY and DANIEL WILSON, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco—Keeping Up with the Joneses and Staying Ahead of the Smiths: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Data

Discussants: JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania
DAVID BLANCHFLOWER, Dartmouth College
DORA COSTA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DAVID CUTLER, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

New Developments in Macroeconomics (E0)

Presiding: ROBERT J. SHILLER, Yale University

JAMES WILCOX, University of California-Berkeley, and JOE PEEK, University of Kentucky—Housing, Credit Constraints, and Macro Stability: The Secondary Mortgage Market and Reduced Cyclicality of Residential Investment

BRUCE GREENWALD and JOSEPH STIGLITZ, Columbia University—Growth and Trade: Infant Economies, Not Infant Industries

OWEN LAMONT, Yale University, and JEREMY STEIN, Harvard University—Investor Sentiment and Corporate Finance: Micro and Macro

Discussants: ANIL KASHYAP, University of Chicago
DAVID SCHARFSTEIN, Harvard School of Business
MARK GERTLER, New York University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Non-Cognitive Determinants of Labor Market Outcomes (J3)

Presiding: EDWARD P. LAZEAR, Stanford University

HANMING FANG, MICHAEL KEANE, Yale University, and ANDREW POSTLEWAITE, University of Pennsylvania—Estimating the Returns to Non-Cognitive Skill Investments

LEX BORGHANS, BAS TER WEEL, Maastricht University, and BRUCE A. WEINBERG, Ohio State University—People People: Social Capital and the Labor-Market Outcomes of Underrepresented Groups

JAMES J. HECKMAN, JORA STIXRUD, and SERGIO URZUA, University of Chicago—The Effects of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Labor and Behavioral Outcomes

Discussants: MARKUS MOBIUS, Harvard University
ROLAND FRYER, Harvard University
HERBERT GINTIS, Santa Fe Institute


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

The Economics of Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies

Presiding: RICARDO CABALLERO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

GUILLERMO A. CALVO, University of Maryland, and ALEJANDRO IZQUIERDO, Inter-American Development Bank—Sudden Stops: Theory and Empirical Evidence

ENRIQUE A. MENDOZA, University of Maryland—Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops

MARTIN URIBE, Duke University—On Overborrowing

Discussants: PHILIPPE AGHION, Harvard University
MICHAEL DEVEREUX, University of British Columbia
FABRIZIO PERRI, New York University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Research on Ph.D. Programs in Economics

Presiding: ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University

WENDY A. STOCK, Montana State University, T. ALDRICH FINEGAN and JOHN J. SIEGFRIED, Vanderbilt University—Matriculation in U.S. Economics Ph.D. Programs: How Many Accepted Americans Do Not Enroll?

T. ALDRICH FINEGAN and WENDY A. STOCK, Montana State University—Attrition in Economics Ph.D. Programs

WENDY A. STOCK, Montana State University, and JOHN J. SIEGFRIED, Vanderbilt University—Time-To-Degree for the Economics Ph.D. Class of 2001-02 Authors

Discussants: JEFFREY A. GROEN, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROBERT E. HALL, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
RICHARD FREEMAN, Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research
ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

The 1956 Contribution to Economic Growth Theory by Robert Solow: The 50th Anniversary Celebration (O4)

Presiding: OLIVIER DE LA GRANDVILLE, University of Geneva

OLIVIER DE LA GRANDVILLE, University of Geneva—The 1956 Contribution to Economic Growth Theory by Robert Solow: A Major Landmark and Some of Its Still Unexploited Riches

CHARLES I. JONES and DEAN SCRIMGEOUR, University of California-Berkeley—The Steady-State Growth Theorem: Understanding Uzawa (1961)

FRANCESCO CASELLI, Harvard University, and JAMES FEYRER, Dartmouth College—The Marginal Product of Capital

ERICH GUNDLACH, Kiel Institute for World Economics—The Solow Model in the Empirics of Cross-Country Growth

DAVIDE FIASCHI and ANDREA MARIO LAVEZZI, University of Pisa—Nonlinear Growth and the Productivity Slowdown

RAINER KLUMP, Frankfurt University, PETER MCADAM and ALPO WILLMAN, European Central Bank—The Long-Term SucCESs of the Neoclassical Growth Model

Discussant: ROBERT SOLOW, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Immigrants, Poverty, and Labor Supply

Presiding: RACHEL FRIEDBERG, Brown University

CATALINA AMUEDO-DORANTES, San Diego State University, and SUSAN POZO, Western Michigan University—Migration, Remittances and Male and Female Employment Patterns

MAYA FEDERMAN, Pitzer College, DAVID HARRINGTON, and KATHY KRYNSKI, Kenyon College—State Licensing Laws, Occupational Choice and the Dispersion of Low-Skilled Immigrants: The Case of Vietnamese Manicurists

DEBORAH L. GARVEY, Santa Clara University—Girls Rule? Schooling Work and Idleness among Immigrant Youth

ANDREA ZIEGERT, Denison University, and DENNIS SULLIVAN, Miami University—Poverty in Hispanic Immigrant Families: Foreign Born Mothers and Their Children

Discussants: GERALD OETTINGER, University of Texas-Austin
STEPHEN TREJO, University of Texas-Austin
BOB LUCAS, Boston University
REBECCA BLANK, University of Michigan


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Social Security Reform in the U.S.: Lessons from Other Countries

Presiding: ANDRÁS SIMONOVITS, Institute of Economics, HAS, Budapest

AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN, Mannheim University, Germany—The Experience of the German Pension Reform

ANDRÁS SIMONOVITS, Institute of Economics, HAS, Budapest—Social Security Reform in the US: Lessons from Hungary

INDERMIT S. GILL and RADU TATUCU, World Bank—Social Security Reforms in Latin America: What Can the U.S. Learn?

Discussants: JEFFREY BROWN, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign
PETER DIAMOND, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
KENT SMETTERS, University of Pennsylvania


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Intellectual Property, Litigation, and Innovation (O3)

Presiding: ROBERT HUNT, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

JAMES BESSEN, Research on Innovation, and MICHAEL MEURER, Boston University—Patent Litigation with Endogenous Disputes

KLAUS KULTTI, University of Helsinki, TUOMAS TAKALO, University of Toulouse and Bank of Finland, and JUUSO TOIKKA, Helsinki School of Economics and FDPE—Secrecy versus Patenting

ROBERT HUNT, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia—When Do Patents Reduce R&D?

CARL SHAPIRO, University of California-Berkeley—Prior User Rights

Discussants: JAY PIL CHOI, Michigan State University
PAROMA SANYAL, Brandeis University
JOSHUA LERNER, Harvard Business School
DENNIS YAO, Harvard Business School


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Information Diffusion in Macroeconomics

Presiding: STEPHEN MORRIS, Yale University

STEPHEN MORRIS, Yale University, and HYUN SONG SHIN, London School of Economics—The Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations

CHRISTOPHER SIMS, Princeton University—Rational Inattention: Beyond the LQ Gaussian Case

GREGORY MANKIW, Harvard University, and RICARDO REIS, Princeton University—Inflation Dynamics and the Diffusion of Information

Discussants: NOBUHIRO KIYOTAKI, London School of Economics
MARIOS ANGELETOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ANDREW ATKESON, University of California-Los Angeles


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Empirics of Corruption (D7)

Presiding: SUSAN ROSE-ACKERMAN, Yale University

MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago, SIMEON DJANKOV, World Bank, REMA HANNA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, Harvard University—Obtaining a Driving License in India: An Experimental Approach to Studying Corruption

RAYMOND FISMAN, Columbia University, PETER MOUSTAKERSKI, Booz Allen Hamilton, and SHANG-JIN WEI, International Monetary Fund—Offshoring Tariff Evasion: A New Explanation for Entrepot Trade

ASIM KHWAJA, Harvard University, and ATIF MIAN, University of Chicago—Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent-Provision in an Emerging Financial Market

BENJAMIN OLKEN, National Bureau of Economic Research—Corruption Perceptions vs. Corruption Reality

Discussants:
GORDON HANSON, University of California-San Diego
SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN, University of California-Los Angeles


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Monetary Policy and Asset Markets (E5)

Presiding: MICHAEL EHRMANN, European Central Bank

ANDREW ANG, SEN DONG, Columbia University, and MONIKA PIAZZESI, University of Chicago—No Arbitrage Taylor Rules

GLENN RUDEBUSCH and TAO WU, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco—Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models

JON FAUST, Federal Reserve Board—The Reaction of Price, Volume, and Bid-Ask Spreads to Macroeconomic News

MICHAEL EHRMANN, MARCEL FRATZSCHER, European Central Bank, and ROBERTO RIGOBON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Stocks, Bonds, Monetary Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission

Discussants: CLARA VEGA, University of Rochester
ROBERTO RIGOBON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
OSCAR JORDA, University of California-Davis
STEVE CECCHETTI, Brandeis University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

The Impact of Medicare (I1)

Presiding: JONATHAN SKINNER, Dartmouth College

AMY FINKELSTEIN, Harvard University, and ROBIN McKNIGHT, University of Oregon—What Did Medicare Do (And Was It Worth It?)

DAVID CARD, University of California-Berkeley, CARLOS DOBKIN, University of California-Santa Cruz, and NICOLE MAESTAS, Rand—The Impact of Nearly Universal Insurance Coverage on Health Care Utilization and Health: Evidence from Medicare

KATHERINE BAICKER and AMITABH CHANDRA, Dartmouth College—Racial Disparities in the Medicare Program

Discussants: DARIUS LAKDAWALLA, Rand
WILLIAM DOW, University of California-Berkeley
ELLEN MEARA, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA

Offshoring: The Discussion Continues (F2)

Presiding: STEVEN LANDEFELD, Bureau of Economic Analysis

JAGDISH BHAGWATI, Columbia University—The Economics of Offshoring: Revisiting the Muddles

RALPH KOZLOW, Bureau of Economic Analysis—Globalization, Offshoring and Multinational Companies: What Are the Questions and How Well Are We Doing in Answering Them?

CATHERINE MANN, Institute for International Economics—Information Technology Offshoring and Productivity Growth

Discussants: LAURA TYSON, London School of Economics
LAEL BRAINARD, Brookings Institution
MATTHEW SLAUGHTER, Dartmouth College


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA/AREUEA

Issues in Urban Economics

Presiding: EDWARD GLAESER, Harvard University

EDWARD GLAESER, Harvard University—The Economics of Agglomeration Revisited

JOEL WALDFOGEL, University of Pennsylvania—The Median Voter and the Median Consumer: Local Private Goods and Residential Sorting

STUART ROSENTHAL, Syracuse University, and WILLIAM STRANGE, University of Toronto—The Attenuation of Human Capital Spillovers: A Manhattan Skyline Approach

Discussants: WILLIAM STRANGE, University of Toronto
RICHARD GREEN, George Washington University
MATTHEW KAHN, Tufts University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA/KAEA

Trade and Financial Integration in East Asia

Presiding: KYOO H. KIM, Bowling Green State University

ROBERT BARRO, Harvard University, and JONG-WHA LEE, Korea University—East Asian Currency Union

BARRY EICHENGREEN, University of California-Berkeley and HUI TONG, Bank of England—How China is Reorganizing the World Economy

CHOONG-SOO KIM, Korea Development Institute—Policy Issues for a Regional Economic Integration of Northeast Asian Economies: A Korean Perspective

Discussants: YUNJONG WANG, SK Research Institute
JAE-WOO LEE, International Monetary Fund
JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University


Jan. 6, 2:30 pm
AEA/NAEFA

The Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Presiding: ANDREW BRIMMER, Brimmer & Company and University of Massachusetts-Amherst

ALLEN SINAI, Decision Economics, Inc.—Innovations, Structural Changes, and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, 1987-2006

ALICE RIVLIN, Brookings Institution—Challenges and Opportunities for Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in the Post-Greenspan Years: An Alumna’s Perspective

MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER—Challenges and Opportunities for Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in the Post-Greenspan Years: A Friend-of-Court Perspective

ANDREW F. BRIMMER, Brimmer & Company and University of Massachusetts-Amherst—Politics and Monetary Policy Before, During, and Following the Greenspan Years


Jan. 6, 4:45 pm
AEA

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Presiding: GEORGE A. AKERLOF, University of California-Berkeley

CLAUDIA GOLDIN, Harvard University—The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family

Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Behavioral Labor Economics (C9)

Presiding: ARMIN FALK, University of Bon and IZA

LORENZ GÖTTE, University of Zurich, and DAVID HUFFMAN, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)—Reference-Dependent Preferences and the Allocation of Effort over Time: Evidence from Natural Experiments with Bike Messengers

ORIANA BANDIERA, London School of Economics, IWAN BARANKAY, University of Essex, and IMRAN RASUL, University College London—Social Preferences and the Response to Incentives: Evidence from Personnel Data

ARMIN FALK, University of Bonn and IZA, and THOMAS DOHMEN, IZA—Performance Pay and Sorting—Productivity, Preferences and Gender

Discussants: COLIN CAMERER, Cal Tech
ERNST FEHR, University of Zurich
BENTLEY MacLEOD, University of Southern California


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

The Boskin Commission After a Decade: Is the CPI Still Biased? (Roundtable Discussion)

Presiding: WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Yale University

MARTIN N. BAILY, Institute of International Economics
ERNST BERNDT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT J. GORDON, Northwestern University
JOHN S. GREENLEES, Bureau of Labor Statistics
JACK E. TRIPLETT, Brookings Institution


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Competition in Two-Sided Markets (L1)

Presiding: MICHAEL RIORDAN, Columbia University

ANDREI HAGIU, Princeton University—Two-Sided Platforms: Pricing and Social Efficiency

BENJAMIN E. HERMALIN and MICHAEL L. KATZ, University of California-Berkeley—Customer or Complementor? Intercarrier Compensation with Two-Sided Benefits

VOLKER NOCKE, University of Pennsylvania, MARTIN PEITZ, International University in Germany, and KONRAD STAHL, University of Mannheim—Competing Market Places

Discussants: ATTILA AMBRUS, Harvard University
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MICHAEL RIORDAN, Columbia University


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

New Insights into the Theory of Sovereign Debt

Presiding: GUILLERMO CALVO, University of Maryland

MARK AGUIAR, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, MANUEL AMADOR, Stanford University, and GITA GOPINATH, Harvard University—Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy

CRISTINA ARELLANO, University of Minnesota—High Sovereign Debt: A Puzzle

ENRIQUE G. MENDOZA, University of Maryland, and P. MARCELO OVIEDO, Iowa State University—Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainly in Emerging Markets: The Tale
of the Tormented Insurer

Discussants: MARTIN URIBE, Duke University
GITA GOPINATH, University of Chicago
ALEJANDRO IZQUIERDO, Inter-American Development Bank


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

China and the World Economy (F0)

Presiding: LOUIS PUTTERMAN, Brown University

ERIC GIRARDIN, GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, and ZHENYA LIU, People's University of Beijing and University of Birmingham —The Financial Integration of China: New Evidence on Temporally Aggregated Data for the A-Share Market

SANDRINE PONCET, University of Paris 1, and SHANG-JIN WEI, International Monetary Fund—Imagining China as Separate Economies: Estimating the Effects of Trade Costs on Growth

ALBERT HU, National University of Singapore, and ROBERT OWEN, University of Nantes—Gravitation at Home and Abroad: Regional Distribution of FDI in China

JIAN GAO, Tsinghua University, and GARY JEFFERSON, Brandeis University—Has China Begun Its S&T Takeoff? Foreign and Domestic Sources of China’s Rising R&D Intensity

Discussants: EDWARD M. GRAHAM, Institute for International Economics
LEE BRANSTETTER, Columbia University
CHENGGANG XU, London School of Economics
SHAHID YUSUF, World Bank


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

The Economics and Empirics of Peer and Neighborhood Effects

Presiding: JANET CURRIE, University of California-Los Angeles

SUSAN CLAMPETT-LUNDQUIST, Princeton University, GREG DUNCAN, Northwestern University, KATHRYN EDIN, University of Pennsylvania, and JEFFREY KLING, Princeton University—Understanding Gender Differences in Neighborhood Effects

ROLAND FRYER and PAUL TORELLI, Harvard University—Measuring the Prevalence and Impact of “Acting White”

BRIAN JACOB, Harvard University, and JENS LUDWIG, Georgetown University—Neighborhood Effects on Children’s Schooling Outcomes: Evidence from a Chicago Housing Lottery

BRYAN GRAHAM, Harvard University, GUIDO IMBENS, University of California, Berkeley, and GEERT RIDDER, University of Southern California—Measuring the Average Outcome and Inequality Effects of Segregation in the
Presence of Social Spillovers

Discussants: JANET CURRIE, University of California-Los Angeles
BRUCE WEINBERG, Ohio State University
JESSE ROTHSTEIN, Princeton University
RAJEEV DEHEJIA, Columbia University


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

The Internet’s Impact on the Sale of Entertainment Products (L8)

Presiding: FELIX OBERHOLZER-GEE, Harvard University

MARIE CONNOLLY and ALAN B. KRUEGER, Princeton University—Rockonomics: The Economics of Popular Music

JULIE MORTIMER, Harvard University, and ALAN SORENSEN, Stanford University—Supply Responses to Digital Distribution: Recorded Music and Live Performances

RAPHAEL ROB and JOEL WALDFOGEL, University of Pennsylvania—Piracy on the Silver Screen

FELIX OBERHOLZER-GEE, Harvard University, and KOLEMAN STRUMPF, University of North Carolina—The Effect of File Sharing on Movies

Discussants: BHARAT ANAND, Harvard University
MATTHEW GENTZKOW, University of Chicago
AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, University of Chicago
LIRAN EINAV, Stanford University


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Workshops on Interactive Teaching for Economic Faculty and Graduate Students: Teaching Introductory Economics (A2)

Presiding: DANIEL S. HAMERMESH, University of Texas-Austin
KENNETH G. ELZINGA, University of Virginia
DANIEL S. HAMERMESH, University of Texas-Austin
G. DIRK MATEER, Pennsylvania State University


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Exposing Cheating and Corruption

Presiding: STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago

JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania—Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball

ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University—How Widespread Was Late Trading in Mutual Funds?

STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago—White Collar Crime Writ Small: The Theft of Bagels and Donuts

Discussants: RAYMOND FISMAN, Columbia University
BRUCE SACERDOTE, Dartmouth College


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Competition in Highly Related Sectors: Telecom, Health, and Financial Services

Presiding: SHARON OSTER, Yale University

M. KATE BUNDORF, Stanford University, and KOSALI SIMON, Cornell University—The Effect of Rate Regulation on Demand for Supplemental Health Insurance

YAN LEE, FDIC—The Color of Money Revisited: Are Banking Regulations Effective in Reducing Disparities in Home Mortgage Lending to Neighborhoods

JAMES REBITZER and MARI REGE, Case Western Reserve University, and CHRISTOPHER SHEPARD, University Hospitals of Cleveland—Information Technology and Information Overload in Health Care

MARC BORREAU, ENST, and PINAR DOGAN, Harvard University—“Build or Buy” Strategies in the Local Loop

Discussants: AMY FINKELSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SHARON OSTER, Yale University
REBECCA HENDERSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS ECONOMIDES, New York University


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Human Wealth Returns and Asset Pricing (G1)

Presiding: STIJN VAN NIEUWERBURGH, New York University

HANNO LUSTIG, University of California-Los Angeles, and STIJN VAN NIEUWERBURGH, New York University—Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street

CHRIS MALLOY, London Business School, TOBIAS MOSKOWITZ, University of Chicago, and ANNETTE VISSING-JORGENSEN, Northwestern University—Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

MIN WEI, Federal Reserve Board—Human Capital, Business Cycles, and Asset Pricing

RAVI BANSAL, Duke University, THOMAS TALLARINI, and AMIR YARON, University of Pennsylvania—The Return to Wealth, Asset Pricing and the Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution

Discussants: JOHN CAMPBELL, Harvard University
MARTIN LETTAU, New York University
URBAN JERMANN, University of Pennsylvania
LARS HANSEN, University of Chicago


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy (E5)

Presiding: PETER TINSLEY, George Washington University

ROBERT TETLOW, Federal Reserve Board—Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: Robust Policies Put to the Test

VITOR GASPAR, FRANK SMETS, and DAVID VESTIN, European Central Bank—Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning

SHARON KOZICKI, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and PETER TINSLEY, George Washington University—Heterogeneous Perceptions of Inflation Targets

KEITH KUESTER, Goethe University of Frankfurt, and VOLKER WIELAND, Goethe University of Frankfurt and Center for Financial Studies—Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Discussants: BENNETT McCALLUM, Carnegie Mellon University
GEORGE EVANS, University of Oregon
JEAN BOIVIN, Columbia University
TIMOTHY COGLEY, University of California-Davis


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

International Migration (F2)

Presiding: GORDON HANSON, University of California-San Diego

NATALIE CHEN, University of Warwick and CEPR, and PAOLA CONCONI, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ECARES), University of Warwick and CEPR, and CARLO PERRONI, University of Warwick—Does Migration Empower Married Women?

GIOVANNI FACCHINI, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign, and ANNA MARIA MAYDA, Georgetown University and CEPR—Do Interest Groups Shape Migration Policy?

GORDON HANSON and CRAIG McINTOSH, University of California-San Diego—Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States

PABLO IBARRARAN, Inter-American Development Bank, and DARREN LUBOTSKY, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign—Mexican Immigration and Self-Selection: New Evidence from the 2000 Mexican Census

Discussants: ROBERT POLLAK, Washington University-St. Louis
DARREN LUBOTSKY, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign
ETHAN LIGON, University of California-Berkeley
ANNA MARIA MAYDA, Georgetown University and CEPR


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA

New Perspectives on Sovereign Debt (F3)

Presiding: KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University

OLIVIER JEANNE and JEROMIN ZETTELMEYER, International Monetary Fund—Is Sovereign Debt a Good Thing?

MICHAEL TOMZ and MARK WRIGHT, Stanford University—Sovereign Debt and Default: Lessons from History

RUI ESTEVES, University of California-Berkeley—Quis custodiet quem? Sovereign Debt and Bondholders’ Protection Before 1914

Discussants: SERGIO SCHMUKLER, World Bank
PAOLO MAURO, International Monetary Fund
KENNETH KLETZER, University of California-Santa Cruz


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA/ACES

North Korea: Past Performance and Potential Trajectories (P2)

Presiding: JOHN BONIN, Wesleyan University

SEOK-JIN KIM, LG Economic Research Institute, BYUNG-YEON KIM, Sogang University, Korea, and KEUN LEE, World Bank and Seoul National University—Assessing the Economic Performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates of Growth Accounting Analysis

STEPHAN HAGGARD, University of California-San Diego, and MARCUS NOLAND, Institute of International Economics—Famine, Marketization, and Economic Reform in North Korea

SCOTT BRADFORD and KERK PHILLIPS, Brigham Young University—The Economic Reunification of Korea: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

MICHAEL FUNKE, Hamburg University, and HOLGER STRULIK, Copenhagen University—Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model: The Hypothetical Case of Korean Unification

Discussants: WONHYUK PHILIP LIM, Korea Development Institute
RICHARD POMFRET, University of Adelaide, Australia
GÉRARD ROLAND, University of California-Berkeley


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA/CES

Economic Growth and Sustainable Development (O0)

Presiding: GORDON LIU, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and Peking University

DAVID E. BLOOM and DAVID CANNING, Harvard School of Public Health—Demographic Change and Economic Growth: Comparing China and India

GORDON G. LIU, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and Peking University, and FRANK LUO, Mid-Continent University—Economic Growth and Population Health in China: Prosperity vs. Sustainability

SHUANGLIN LIN, University of Nebraska, YAN WANG, World Bank, and FAN ZHAI, Asian Development Bank—Simulating the Long-Run Effects of China's Expansionary Fiscal Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model

JUSTIN YIFU LIN, Peking University and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, MINGXING LIU, Peking University, SHIYUAN PAN, Peking University and Zhejiang University, and PENGFEI ZHANG, Peking University—Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Institutions: Theory and Evidence from China

Discussants: DEAN JAMISON, University of California-Los Angeles
UWE REINHARDT, Princeton University
LAURENCE KOTLIKOFF, Boston University
JIANDONG JU, University of Oklahoma


Jan. 7, 8:00 am
AEA/ODE

ODE Graduate Student Invited Papers Session

Presiding: ROBERT R. EBERT, Baldwin-Wallace College

NICOLE L. CORNELL SADOWSKI, University of Oklahoma—Discount Retailers and Sales Tax Collection: Accounting for Competitive and Spatial Aspects

JUAN MANUEL JAUREGUI, University of California-Los Angeles—The Political Economy of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Study

SHUICHIRO NISHIOKA, University of Colorado-Boulder—An Explanation of OECD Trade with Knowledge Capital and the HOV Model

KRISTIN ROTI JONES, University of Connecticut—Dangerous Products and Spillover Liability

JAYANTA SARKAR, Southern Methodist University—Mortality, Fertility and Persistent Income Inequality

Discussants: ERIK B. JOHNSON, University of Colorado
NATHAN P.S. COOK, Michigan State University
YONGLI ZHANG, Fordham University
JASON PEARCY, University of Colorado-Boulder
BIJAN JYOTI BORAH, Indiana University-Bloomington


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Special Invited Lecture

Presiding: LAWRENCE KATZ, Harvard University

ERNST FEHR, University of Zurich—Reciprocity, Reputation, and Market Performance


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Social Interactions: Consequences for Schooling and Employment

Presiding: YANNIS M. IOANNIDES, Tufts University

ALESSANDRA CASELLA, Columbia University, and NOBUYUKI HANAKI, University of Tsukuba —Why Personal Ties Cannot Be Bought

FEDERICO ECHENIQUE, California Institute of Technology, and ROLAND G. FRYER, Harvard University—On the Measurement of Segregation

ADRIAAN R. SOETEVENT, University of Amsterdam, and YANNIS M. IOANNIDES, Tufts University—Employment in a Social Network with Arbitrary Degree Distribution

LINDA DATCHER LOURY, Tufts University—All in the Extended Family: Schooling and Employment

Discussants: DAVID AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERTO FERNANDEZ, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GLENN LOURY, Boston University
BRUCE WEINBERG, Ohio State University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

William Baumol Special Session on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Growth I: Theoretical Approach

Presiding: ROBERT LITAN, Kauffman Foundation

WILLIAM BAUMOL, New York University—Entrepreneurship and Invention: Toward Their Microeconomic Value Theory

EDWARD LAZEAR, Stanford University—Leadership and Entrepreneurs: Where They Produce the Most Value

EDMUND PHELPS, Columbia University—Further Steps to a Theory of Innovation and Growth—On the Path Begun
by Knight, Hayek and Polanyí

CARL SCHRAMM, Kauffman Foundation—Entrepreneurial Capitalism and the End of Bureaucracy: Reforming the Mutual
Dialogue of Risk Aversion

Discussants: YING LOWREY, U.S. Small Business Administration
PER STROMBERG, University of Chicago


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

The Economics of National Security

Presiding: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER

CHRIS ROHLFS, University of Chicago—The Government’s Valuation of Military Life-Saving in War: A Cost Minimization Approach

DAVID JAEGER, College of William and Mary, and DANIELE PASERMAN, Hebrew University of Jerusalem—The Spiral of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Violence in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

ALBERTO ABADIE, NBER—Poverty, Political Freedom and the Roots of Terrorism

Discussants: PETER GARBER, Deutsche Bank
ELI BERMAN, University of California-San Diego
ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Understanding Child Labor (O1)

Presiding: RAJEEV DEHEJIA, Columbia University

KAUSHIK BASU and HOMA ZARGHAMEE, Cornell University—Is Product Boycott a Good Idea for Controlling Child Labor?

KATHLEEN BEEGLE, World Bank, RAJEEV DEHEJIA, Columbia University, and ROBERTA GATTI, World Bank—Why Should We Care About Child Labor? The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor

ERIC EDMONDS and SALIL SHARMA, Dartmouth College—Schooling Investment Incentives in Children Vulnerable to Bondage

CAROL ANN ROGERS, Georgetown University, and KENNETH SWINNERTON, U.S. Department of Labor—A Theory of Exploitative Child Labor

Discussants: ERICA FIELD, Harvard University
PAUL GLEWWE, University of Minnesota
JONATHAN MORDUCH, New York University
CHRIS UDRY, Yale University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Theories of Regulation and Deregulation: A Critical Appraisal (Roundtable Discussion) (L5)

Presiding: ROBERT HAHN, AEI-Brookings Joint Center

GARY BECKER, University of Chicago
ROGER NOLL, Stanford University
SAM PELTZMAN, University of Chicago
CLIFFORD WINSTON, Brookings Institution


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

On Time: Early Results from the American Time Use Survey

Presiding: KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, University of Maryland

KRISTIN MAMMEN, Barnard College, Columbia University—Fathers' Time Investments in Children: Do Sons Get More?

LEORA FRIEDBERG, University of Virginia, and ANTHONY WEBB, International Longevity Center—The Chore Wars: Household Bargaining and Leisure Time

SANDY KORENMAN, Baruch College, City University of New York, and JUNE O’NEILL, Center for the Study of Business and Government—Time Use and Gender and Marital Differences in Pay and Occupations

MARIE CONNELLY, Princeton University—How’s the Weather? A Look at Substitution between Work, Leisure and Home Production

HARLEY FRAZIS and JAY STEWART, Bureau of Labor Statistics—What Do Male Nonworkers Do?

DANIEL HAMERMESH, University of Texas—Why Not Retire? The Time and Timing Costs of Market Work

Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Entrepreneurs and Enterprises in China’s Transition to Market (P3)

Presiding: DWIGHT PERKINS, Harvard University

SIMEON DJANKOV, World Bank, EDWARD MIGUEL, YINGYI QUIN, GÉRARD ROLAND, University of California-Berkeley, and EKATERINA ZHURAVSKAYA, CEFIR—Who Are China's Entrepreneurs

CHONG-EN BAI, University of Hong Kong and Tsinghua University, JIANGYONG LU, and ZHIGANG TAO, University of Hong Kong—How Does Privatization Work in China?

DAVID D. LI, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and JUNXIN FENG and HONGPING JIANG, Tsinghua University—Institutional Entrepreneurs in China

TAKAO KATO and CHERYL LONG, Colgate University—CEO Turnover and Firm Performance in China: Evidence from Firms Listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges

Discussants: ERIK BERGLOF, SITE, Stockholm School of Economics
PETER MURRELL, University of Maryland
GARY JEFFERSON, Brandeis University
CHERYL LONG, Colgate University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Monetary Policy Transparency and Effectiveness (E5)

Presiding: OTMAR ISSING, European Central Bank

VINCENT REINHART, Federal Reserve Board, and BRIAN SACK, Macroadvisers—Words and Deeds: The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Communications Strategy

ANNE SIBERT, Birkbeck College—Is Central Bank Transparency Desirable

ALEX CUKIERMAN, Tel-Aviv University—The Limits of Transparency

MICHAEL EHRMANN, and MARCEL FRATZSCHER, European Central Bank—How Should Central Banks Communicate?

Discussants: LARS SVENSSON, Princeton University
LINDA GOLDBERG, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
KENNETH KUTTNER, Oberlin College
WILLEM BUITER, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Gender Differences in Career Dynamics and Earnings (J3)

Presiding: RONALD EHRENBERG, Cornell University

CATHERINE WEINBERGER and PETER KUHN, University of California-Santa Barbara—The Narrowing of the U.S. Gender Earnings Gap, 1959-1999: A Cohort-Based Analysis

ALISON BOOTH, University of Essex and Australian National University, and JEFFREY FRANK, Royal Holloway, University of London—Marriage, Partnership, Cohabitation and Sexual Orientation: What Males Gain a Wage Premium?

LOIS JOY, Yale University—Gender Differences in Wage Growth among Recent College Graduates

DEON FILMER, ELIZABETH KING, and DOMINIQUE VAN DEN WALLE, World Bank—Testing for Pay and Promotion Bias in an International Organization

Discussants: RONALD OAXACA, University of Arizona
RONALD EHRENBERG, Cornell University
MARIANNE FERBER, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign
DEBORAH COBB-CLARK, Australian National University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice (D9)

Presiding: W. KIP VISCUSI, Harvard Law School

JONATHAN COHEN, Princeton University, DAVID LAIBSON, Harvard University, and GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN, Carnegie Mellon University, and SAM McCLURE, Princeton University—Neuroeconomics and Impulsivity

DREW FUDENBERG, Harvard University, and DAVID K. LEVINE, University of California-Los Angeles and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis—A Dual-Self Model of Impulse Control

JOEL HUBER, Duke University, and W. KIP VISCUSI, Harvard Law School—Hyperbolic Discounting of Public Goods

JESS BENHABIB, ALBERTO BISIN, and ANDREW SCHOTTER, New York University—Hyperbolic Discounting: An Experimental Analysis

Discussants: COLIN CAMERER, California Institute of Technology
DRAZEN PRELEC, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SHANE FREDERICK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DANIEL READ, Durham Business School and London School of Economics


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Restructuring and Regulation of Public Utilities

Presiding: NANCY ROSE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

CATHERINE WOLFRAM, University of California-Berkeley, and JAMES BUSHNELL, University of California Energy Institute—The Economic Impact of Grandfathering Regulations: Power Plant Performance and New Source Review

LEA-RACHEL KOSNIK, University of Missouri-St. Louis—Interest Group Battle Choice: When Is It Time to Pick a Fight?

PAROMA SANYAL, Brandeis University, and ARINDAM GHOSH, Analysis Group Inc.—Private Sector Response to Vanishing Public R&D Dollars: Innovation and Electricity Deregulation in the U.S.

ISABELLE BROCAS, University of Southern California, KITTY CHAN, Federal Communications Commission, and ISABELLE PERRIGNE, Pennsylvania State University—Regulation under Asymmetric Information in Water Utilities

Discussants: ERIN MANSUR, Yale University
AMY W. ANDO, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign
NANCY ROSE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDNA LOEHMAN, Purdue University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Asian Currency Matters

Presiding: JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University

MORRIS GOLDSTEIN and NICHOLAS LARDY, Institute of International Economics—China’s Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma

RONALD McKINNON, Stanford University—China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?

BARRY EICHENGREEN, University of California-Berkeley—The Parallel Currency Approach to Asian Monetary Unification

Discussants: ESWAR PRASAD, International Monetary Fund
PETER KENEN, Princeton University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Workshops on Interactive Teaching for Economics Faculty and Graduate Students: The Teaching Innovations Program (TIP) for Economics Instructors (A2)

Presiding: MICHAEL K. SALEMI, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

KIMMARIE McGOLDRICK, University of Richmond
MICHAEL K. SALEMI, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
WILLIAM WALSTAD, University of Nebraska-Lincoln


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA

Historical Perspectives on Long-Run Development (O1)

Presiding: SIMON JOHNSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOEL MOKYR, Northwestern University—The Rise of the Enlightened Economy

JARED DIAMOND, University of California-Los Angeles—The Wealth and Poverty of Nations

DARON ACEMOGLU, SIMON JOHNSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and JAMES ROBINSON, Harvard University—The French Revolution and Institutional Change

Discussants: STANLEY ENGERMAN, University of Rochester
PETER TEMIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PHILIP HOFFMAN, Cal Tech


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA/IHEA

Issues of Industrial Organization in Health Care

Presiding: VIVIAN HO, Rice University and Baylor College of Medicine

SUJOY CHAKRAVARTY, MARTIN GAYNOR, STEPHEN KLEPPER, and WILLIAM VOGT, Carnegie Mellon University—Does the Profit Motive Make Jack Nimble? Ownership Form and the Evolution of the U.S. Hospital Industry

LEEMORE DAFNY, Northwestern University—Estimation and Identification of Merger Effects: An Application to Hospital Mergers

GAUTAM GOWRISANKARAN, Washington University, VIVIAN HO, Rice University and Baylor College of Medicine, and ROBERT TOWN, University of Minnesota—Causality and the Volume-Outcome Relationship in Surgery

Discussants: THOMAS HOLMES, University of Minnesota
FRANK WOLAK, Stanford University
ARIEL PAKES, Harvard University


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA/LERA

The National Labor Relations Act After Seventy Years: An Assessment (Symposium)

Presiding: MICHAEL REICH, University of California-Berkeley

RICHARD B. FREEMAN, Harvard University—Does Labor Fare Better Under Federal or State Law?

BARRY HIRSCH, Trinity University, and JEFFREY HIRSCH, University of Tennessee —The Rise and Fall of Private Sector Unionism: What Comes Next?

PAULA B. VOOS, Rutgers University—Expanding Voice for Professionals, Technical Workers, Supervisors, and Managers

Discussants: WILLIAM B. GOULD, Stanford University Law School
JON HIATT, AFL-CIO
DANIEL J.B. MITCHELL, University of California-Los Angeles


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA/NEA

Skin Tone Discrimination and Economic Outcomes (J1)

Presiding: SHELLEY WHITE-MEANS, University of Tennessee-Memphis

ARTHUR GOLDSMITH, Washington and Lee University, DARRICK HAMILTON, New School University, and WILLIAM DARITY, JR., University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill—From Dark to Light: Skin Color and Wages among African-Americans

KWABENA GYIMAH-BREMPONG, University of South Florida, and GREGORY N. PRICE, Jackson State University—Crime and Punishment: And Skin Hue Too?

JONI HERSCH, Harvard University Law School—Skin Tone Effects among African Americans: Perceptions and Reality

HOWARD BODENHORN, Lafayette College—The Economic Consequences of Colorism and Complexion Homogamy in the Black Community: Some Historical Evidence

Discussants: ORLEY ASHENFELTER, Princeton University
SHELLEY WHITE-MEANS, University of Tennessee-Memphis
LEONCE NDIKUMANA, University of Massachusetts-Amherst
MARGARET SIMMS, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies


Jan. 7, 10:15 am
AEA/SPM

Economic Integration, Trade Policies and Governance (Roundtable) (F1)

Presiding: DOMINICK SALVATORE, Fordham University

VOLBERT ALEXANDER and MARTIN MANDLER, University of Geissen—Economic Integration, Uncertainty and Trade: The European Experience

JAMES DEAN, Simon Fraser University and Western Washington University, and VIVEK DEHEJIA, Carleton University—Globalization, Liberalization, and National Culture: Convergence and Divergence in the Americas

GERHARD FINK, Vienna University of Economics and Business, and DOMINICK SALVATORE, Fordham University—Exchange Rate Misalignments and Trade Protectionism across the Atlantic

LUCJAN ORLOWSKI, Sacred Heart University—Trade Creation and Diversion in the Enlarged European Union

ROBERT OWEN, University of Nantes—Governance and Economic Integration

Jan. 7, 12:30 pm
AEA

Luncheon Honoring the 2004 Nobel Laureates, Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott

Presiding: GEORGE A. AKERLOF, University of California-Berkeley

VICTOR RIOS-RULL, University of Pennsylvania
RICHARD ROGERSON, Arizona State University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Alan Greenspan’s Legacy: An Early Look (E5)

Presiding: ALLAN MELTZER, Carnegie Mellon University

CHARLES CALOMIRIS, Columbia University—Greenspan: The Quiet Revolutionary

BENJAMIN FRIEDMAN, Harvard University—Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era: Do the Structural Changes Correspond to the Performance?

ATHANASIOS ORPHANIDES, Federal Reserve Board—The Road to Price Stability

N. GREGORY MANKIW, Council of Economic Advisers—The Greenspan Legacy

ALLAN MELTZER, Carnegie Mellon University—From Inflation to More Inflation, Disinflation and Low Inflation


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

New Evidence about the Impact of Taxing Corporate-Source Income (H2)

Presiding: JOEL SLEMROD, University of Michigan

ALAN AUERBACH, University of California-Berkeley, and KEVIN HASSETT, American Enterprise Institute—Dividend Taxes and Firm Valuation: New Evidence

RAJ CHETTY and EMMANUEL SAEZ, University of California-Berkeley—The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut on Corporate Payout Policies and Stock Price Reactions to Dividends

JOEL SLEMROD, University of Michigan—Corporate Tax Avoidance and the Real Effects of Tax Policy

Discussants: GUSTAVO GRULLON, Rice University
ROGER GORDON, University of California-San Diego
MICHAEL DEVEREUX, Warwick University


Jan 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

William Baumol Special Session on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Growth II: Empirical Approach

Presiding: YING LOWREY, U.S. Small Business Administration

DAVID AUDRETSCH and MAX KEILBACH, Max Planck Institute of Economics—Entrepreneurship Capital -- Determinants and Impact on Regional Economic Performance

YING LOWREY, U.S. Small Business Administration—An Examination of Entrepreneurial Effort

STEVEN KAPLAN, BERK SENSOY, and PER STROMBERG, University of Chicago—What Are Firms? Evolution from Birth to Public Companies

PAUL GOMERS, ANNA KOVNER, JOSHUA LERNER, and DAVID SCHARFSTEIN, Harvard University—Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets

Discussants: AUGUSTIN LANDIER, University of Chicago
MELISSA SCHILLING, New York University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Marriage Markets: Matching Models and Empirical Implications (J1)

Presiding: ANDREW F. NEWMAN, Boston University

PIERRE-ANDREW CHIAPPORI, University of Chicago, MURAT IYIGUN, University of Colorado, and YORAM WEISS, Tel Aviv University—Spousal Matching, Marriage Contracts and Property Division in Divorce

PATRICK LEGROS, ECARES, Free University of Brussels, and ANDREW F. NEWMAN, Boston University—Beauty is a Beast, Frog is a Prince: Assortative Matching with Nontransferabilities

LENA EDLUND and WOJCIECH KOPCZUK, Columbia University—The Wealth of Women

MARISTELLA BOTTICINI, Boston University and University of Torino, and ALOYSIUS SIOW, University of Toronto—The Value of Sons in Medieval Society: A View from the Marriage Market

Discussants: ANDREW F. NEWMAN, Boston University
ALOYSIUS SIOW, University of Toronto
MARISTELLA BOTTICINI, Boston University and University of Torino
MURAT IYIGUN, University of Colorado


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Inside the Black Box of Education: The Role of “Non-Cognitive” Factors in Determining Student Achievement

Presiding: BRIAN JACOB, Harvard University

BRIAN JACOB, Harvard University, and JACOB VIGDOR, Duke University—Bad Seeds: Measuring the Impact of Peer Disruption on Classroom Production

DAVID FIGLIO, University of Florida—Why Barbie Says “Math is Hard”

EDWARD P. LAZEAR, Stanford University—Tax Fraud becomes Terrorism

ERIC BETTINGER and ROBERT SLONIM, Case Western Reserve University—Patience among Children: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Discussants: JENS LUDWIG, Georgetown University
SUSANNA LOEB, Stanford University
LARS LEFGREN, Brigham Young University
DAVID LAIBSON, Harvard University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Globalization at Columbia

Presiding: JOSEPH STIGLITZ, Columbia University

BRUCE GREENWALD, Columbia University—Has Globalization Been Exaggerated?

JEFFREY D. SACHS, Columbia University—The End of Poverty

ROBERT MUNDELL, Columbia University—Mondializing Money

EDMUND PHELPS, Columbia University—Trade, Technology Transfer, and Globalization

MERIT JANOW, Columbia University—Making Sense of the WTO Agreements

JOSEPH STIGLITZ, Columbia University—Making Globalization Work


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Gender Earnings Gap

Presiding: LORI KLETZER, University of California-Santa Cruz

STEFANIE ALBANESI, Duke University, and CLAUDIA OLIVETTI, Boston University—Home Production, Market Production and the Gender Wage Gap: Incentives and Expectations

MARIGEE P. BACOLOD, University of California-Irvine, and BERNARDO BLUM, University of Toronto—U.S. “Residual” Inequality and the Gender Gap: Two Sides of the Same Coin

ELSIE ECHEVERRI-CARROLL and SOFIA G. AYALA, University of Texas-Austin—High-Technology Agglomerations and Gender Inequalities

KUSUM MUNDRA, San Diego State University—A Panel Study of Earning Differentials across Gender

Discussants: SHELLY LUNDBERG, University of Washington
SANDRA BLACK, University of California-Los Angeles
LAWRENCE KAHN, Cornell University
CHINHUI JUHN, University of Houston


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Asymmetric Information and the Automobile Market (D8)

Presiding: KATHLEEN JOHNSON, Federal Reserve Board

SUMIT AGARWAL, Bank of America, BRENT AMBROSE, University of Kentucky, and SOUPHALA CHOMSISENGPHET, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency—Asymmetric Information and the Automobile Loan Market

MEGHAN BUSSE, University of California-Berkeley, JORGE SILVIA-RISSO, University of California-Riverside, and FLORIAN ZETTLEMEYER, University of California-Berkeley and NBER—$1000 Cash Back: Asymmetric Information in Auto Manufacturer Promotions

KATHLEEN JOHNSON, Federal Reserve Board—Price Discrimination in Consumer Markets: Evidence from Automobile Sales Incentive Programs

KERWIN KOFI CHARLES, University of Michigan and NBER, ERIK HURST, University of Chicago and NBER, and MELVIN STEPHENS, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER—Explaining Racial Differences in Vehicle Loan Rates

Discussants: JOHN DRISCOLL, Federal Reserve Board
ADAM COPELAND, Federal Reserve Board
ANDREA MORO, University of Minnesota
KAREN PENCE, Federal Reserve Board


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Technology and Institutions Co-Evolving

Presiding: AVNER GREIF, Stanford University

ZORINA KHAN, Bowdoin College and NBER, and KENNETH SOKOLOFF, University of California-Los Angeles and NBER—The Evolution of Institutions and Useful Knowledge in Britain and America: Great Inventors and Their Patents, 1790-1930

J. STANLEY METCALFE, University of Manchester, United Kingdom, and RICHARD R.NELSON, Columbia University—Technology, Organization, and Institutions in Cardiology: Extending the Scope of "Activity Analysis"

JOEL MOKYR, Northwestern University—The Fork in the Road: Technology, Institutions and the Origins of Modern Growth in Eighteenth Century Europe

ULRICH WITT, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena, Germany and CHRISTIAN ZELLNER, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne—Changing Patterns of Technological Knowledge Production and the Organizational Adaptations Inside Firms

Discussants: AVNER GREIF, Stanford University
CONSTANCE E. HELFAT, Dartmouth College
PETER MURMANN, Northwestern University
RICHARD LANGLOIS, University of Connecticut


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Understanding Investment (H2)

Presiding: SIMON GILCHRIST, Boston University

SIMON GILCHRIST and JIANJUN MIAO, Boston University—Corporate Governance and Tax Evasion: Implications for Investment

HUNTLEY SCHALLER, Carleton University, Canada—The Long-Run Effect of Taxes, Prices, and the Interest Rate on Capital

LYNNE PEPALL and DANIEL RICHARDS, Tufts University—Strategic Subsidies and Investment Spillovers

Discussants: MIHIR DESAI, Harvard Business School
CHRISTOPHER HOUSE, University of Michigan
ROBERT CHIRINKO, Emory University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Politics and Finance (G0)

Presiding: ANTOINETTE SCHOAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ANTOINETTE SCHOAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago, FRANCIS KRAMARZ, and DAVID THESMAR, ENSAE—Politically Connected CEOs and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from France

STEPHEN HABER, Stanford University—Political Institutions and Financial Development: Evidence from the Economic Histories of Mexico and the United States

MARA FACCIO, RONALD MASULIS, Vanderbilt University, and JOHN McCONNELL, Purdue University—Political Connections and Corporate Bailouts

Discussants: ANDREI SHLEIFER, Harvard University
RANDY KROSZNER, University of Chicago
RAYMOND FISMAN, Columbia University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Historical Perspectives on the Consequences and Effects of Original Sin

Presiding: PETER TEMIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MARC FLANDREAU and CLEMENS JOBST, Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Paris—Original sin and the international monetary architecture

MICHAEL BORDO, Rutgers University, and CHRISTOPHER M. MEISSNER, University of Cambridge—The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997

LUIS A.V. CATÃO, International Monetary Fund—Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults

Discussants: MICHAEL BORDO, Rutgers University
ALAN M. TAYLOR, University of California-Davis
CARMEN REINHART, University of Maryland


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Workshop on Interactive Teaching for Economic Faculty and Graduate Students: Poster Session on Teaching Ideas and Projects (A2)

Presiding: RAE JEAN GOODMAN, U.S. Naval Academy, and MARK MAIER, Glendale Community College

MARY ELLEN MALLIA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute—Using Creativity in Assessment to Teach Economics

MICHELE T. VILLINSKI, DePauw University—Techniques and Effectiveness of Interactive Classroom Instruction Software

KIRSTEN K. MADDEN, Millersville University of Pennsylvania—Using Surveys to Teach Economic Concepts

MARTIN MILKMAN and BARRY BROWN, Murray State University—Using Personal Response System Clickers in Principles

SUZANNE HELLER CLAIN, Villanova University—The Lesson of the Winner’s Curse: An Example from the Economics of Sports

GAIL MITCHELL HOYT, University of Kentucky—The Concept Quiz as a Technique for Actively Engaging Students

RAYMONDA L. BURGMAN, DePauw University—Writing to Learn Economics

WILLIAM DAWES and JACQUELINE WILKS-NELSON, Stony Brook University—Using a Keypad Response System in a Large Lecture Course

STEVEN GOLD, Rochester Institute of Technology—The Use of an Interactive Simulation Game to Teach Microeconomics

PAUL HETTLER, California University of Pennsylvania—The Effectiveness of Team-Based Learning in Building Content Knowledge and Problem Solving Skills in Principles of Macroeconomics

G. DIRK MATEER, Pennsylvania State University—Teaching Economics with Tunes

JONATHAN B. WIGHT, University of Richmond—Why My Doctor is a Kantian and My Car Mechanic is an Aristotelian: Understanding Ethics in Economics

MARILYN COTTRELL, Brock University, Canada—A Learning Object for Macroeconomic Principles

NATHAN D. GRAWE, Carleton College—A Simulation of Counter-Cyclical Intervention: Some Practical Lessons


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Policy and Political Economy of Growth

Presiding: ROBERT HALL, Stanford University

WILLIAM EASTERLY, New York University—Can National Policy Change Long-Run Growth?

RAGHURAM RAJAN, University of Chicago—What Prevents Aid from Enhancing Growth?

TIMOTHY BESLEY, TORSTEN PERSSON, London School of Economics, and DANIEL STURM, University of Munich—Political Competition and the Quality of Government: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. States

PHILIPPE AGHION, ROBERT BARRO, IOANA MARINESCU, Harvard University, PHILIPPE BACCHETTA, Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Switzerland, ROMAIN RANCIERE, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University—Volatility and Growth and Implications for Macropolicy

Discussant: DARON ACEMOGLU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA

Portfolio Choice: Puzzles and New Approaches (G1)

Presiding: STIJN VAN NIEUWERBURGH, New York University

STEPHANIE CURCURU, JOHN HEATON, University of Chicago, DEBORAH LUCAS, Northwestern University, and DAMIEN MOORE, University of Sydney—Heterogeneity and Portfolio Choice: Theory and Evidence

CLAUDIO CAMPANALE, University of Alicante, and FATIH GUVENEN, University of Rochester—Explaining Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice: The Role of Bequests and Under-diversification

STIJN VAN NIEUWERBURGH and LAURA VELDKAMP, New York University—Information Acquisition and Portfolio Under-Diversification

LUCA BENZONI, University of Minnesota, PIERRE COLLIN-DUFRESNE, University of California-Berkeley, and ROBERT GOLDSTEIN, University of Minnesota—Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of “Trickle Down” Labor Income

Discussants: STAN ZIN, Carnegie Mellon University
LEONID KOGAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
CHESTER SPATT, Securities and Exchange Commission and Carnegie Mellon University
DEBORAH LUCAS, Northwestern University


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA/CEANA

Environment, Economy, and Global Warming

Presiding: WEN S. CHERN, Yale University

ROBERT MENDELSOHN, Ohio State University—Forecasting the Impacts of Climate Change: Comparing the Effects in the Far East and the Rest of the World

CHUNG-HUANG HUANG, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, SHIH-MO LIN, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, HSING-HUA LIN, Ching-Yun Institute of Technology, Taiwan, and HAN-PIN SU, Ministry of Justice, Taiwan—Decoupling of CO2 Emission from Economic Growth: How Could the EKC Become Plausible?

BRENT L. SOHNGEN, Ohio State University, TOM HERTEL, and HUEY-LIN LEE, Purdue University—Influence of Technology Change in Agriculture on CO2 Emissions from Deforestation and Other Land Uses: Comparing Regional Results

JU-CHIN HUANG, University of New Hampshire, and DAIGEE SHAW, Academia Sinica, Taiwan—Theoretically Consistent Willingness to Pay for Water Quality: The Case of Taiwan

Discussants: V. KERRY SMITH, North Carolina State University
CAROLYN FISCHER, Resources for the Future
JOHN REILLY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA/SGE

The Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government

Presiding: NICHOLAS BULL, Joint Committee on Taxation

DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, Director, Congressional Budget Office—Economics in Government


Jan. 7, 2:30 pm
AEA/URPE

In Celebration of John Kenneth Galbraith (Roundtable)

Presiding: JULIET SCHOR, Boston College

JULIET B. SCHOR, Boston College
JAMES K. GALBRAITH, University of Texas-Austin
RICHARD PARKER, Harvard University
JAMES RON STANFIELD, Colorado State University


Jan. 7, 4:45 pm
AEA

Presidential Address

Presiding: GEORGE A. AKERLOF, University of California-Berkeley
DANIEL McFADDEN, University of California-Berkeley

Jan. 7, 6:00 pm
AEA

Business Meeting


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the U.S. Economy (Roundtable Discussion) (F4)

Presiding: DOMINICK SALVATORE, Fordham University

JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University—Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize U.S. Economy Hegemony?

GLENN HUBBARD, Columbia University—Twin Deficits: Causes and Consequences

GREGORY MANKIW, Harvard University and Council of Economic Advisers—The Fiscal Policy Challenge

RAGHURAM RAJAN, International Monetary Fund—Closing the Current U.S. Current Account Deficit: Scenarios and Risks

KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University—How Strong is the Case for Coordinated Response to Global Imbalances?


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Labor Force Participation in the 21st Century (J2)

Presiding: JOSEPH TRACY, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

FRANCINE BLAU and LAWRENCE KAHN, Cornell University—Changes in Female Labor Supply Behavior: 1980-2000

CASEY MULLIGAN, University of Chicago, and YONA RUBINSTEIN, Tel Aviv University—Specialization, Inequality, and the Labor Market for Married Women

CHARLES HIMMELBERG and MARGARET McCONNELL, Federal Reserve Bank of New York—Understanding the Recent Behavior of U.S. Labor Force Participation

CHINHUI JUHN, University of Houston, and SIMON POTTER, Federal Reserve Bank of New York—The Impact of Working Spouses on Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor Force

Discussants: BRADLEY HEIM, Duke University
DAVID AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MARY DALY, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
STEPHANIE AARONSON, Federal Reserve Board


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

The Costs of War

Presiding: JAMES K. GALBRAITH, University of Texas-Austin

JOSEPH STIGLITZ, Columbia University—The Economics of War and Its Aftermath: The Case of Iraq

WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Yale University—Is Military Spending Justified by Security Threats?

STEVE KOSIAK, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—The Costs of the Iraq War

ALLEN SINAI, Decision Economics—Wars and the Macroeconomy: The Case of Iraq

BASSAM YOUSIF, Indiana State University—The Coalition Provision’s (CPA) Economic Policy


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Private Pensions and Retirement Income Security (J3)

Presiding: CHARLES JESZECK, U.S. Government Accountability Office

MARK GLICKMAN and GENE KUEHNEMAN, U.S. Government Accountability Office—Retiree Pension Payout Decisions: Evidence from the Health and Retirement
Study, 1992-2002

WILLIAM GALE, Brookings Institution, GREGORY MILLS, Abt Associates, and RHIANNON PATTERSON, U.S. Government Accountability Office—Do Individual Development Accounts Raise Saving? Experimental Evidence

JEFFREY BROWN, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign and NBER, NELLIE LIANG, Federal Reserve Board, and SCOTT WEISBENNER, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign—Endorsement Effects and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from 401(k) Plans

Discussants: CONSTANTIJN PANIS, RAND
KAREN PENCE, Federal Reserve Board
CLEMENS SIALM, University of Michigan


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Economic Impacts of Wal-Mart (L0)

Presiding: JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania

JERRY HAUSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and EPHRAIM LIEBTAG, U.S. Department of Agriculture—Consumer Benefits from Increased Competition in Shopping Outlets

EMEK BASKER and PHAM HOANG VAN, University of Missouri—Putting a Smiley Face on the Dragon: Wal-Mart as Catalyst to U.S.-China Trade

THOMAS HOLMES, University of Minnesota—Unions and Wal-Mart: Geography, Time, and Strategic Avoidance Behavior

DAVID NEUMARK and JUNFU ZHANG, Public Policy Institute of California—What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town?

Discussants: LUKE FROEB, Vanderbilt University
JOHN ROMALIS, Chicago GSB
RICHARD FREEMAN, Harvard University
JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Understanding International Business Cycles: New Perspectives (F4)

Presiding: MARK WATSON, Princeton University

AYHAN KOSE, International Monetary Fund, CHRISTOPHER OTROK, University of Virginia, and ESWAR PRASAD, International Monetary Fund—Regionalization vs. Globalization: Explaining North-South Business Cycle Dynamics

MARIO CRUCINI and MOTOTSUGU SHINTANI, Vanderbilt University—International Comovement: Is Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement?

JONATHAN HEATHCOTE, Georgetown University, and FABRIZIO PERRI, New York University—Keeping All Your Eggs in One Basket: Trading Costs and International Portfolio Diversification

Discussants: MARK WATSON, Princeton University
REUVEN GLICK, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
ERIC VAN WINCOOP, University of Virginia


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Endogenous Information Acquisition

Presiding: DIRK BERGEMANN, Yale University

LEEAT YARIV, University of California-Los Angeles, and DINO GERARDI, Yale University—Organizational Design with Costly Information

ALEX GERSHKOV, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and BALASZ SZENTES, University of Chicago—Optimal Voting Scheme with Costly Information Acquisition

JACQUES CREMER, IDEI-GREMAQ, University of Toulouse, YOSSI SPIEGEL, Tel Aviv University, and CHARLES ZHENG, Northwestern University—Optimal Search Auctions

RANN SMORODINSKY, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology—A Revelation Principle for Models with Costly Private Information

Discussants: CESAR MARTINELLI, ITAM
NAVIN KARTIK, University of California-San Diego
DINO GERADI, Yale University
DIRK BERGEMANN, Yale University


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Slavery, Inequality and Health

Presiding: SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN, University of California-Berkeley and Los Angeles

NATHAN NUNN, University of British Columbia—Slavery, Institutional Development, and Long-Run Growth in Africa, 1400-2000

WASIQ KHAN, University of St. Mary—The Labor Productivity Differential between West Africa and the West Indies: 1680-1830, An Economic Analysis of the Slave Trade

Discussant: CHRISTOPHER UDRY, Yale University


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Racial Segregation, School Quality and School Choice (I2)

Presiding: DAVID FIGLIO, University of Florida

DAVID CARD, University of California-Berkeley, and JESSE ROTHSTEIN, Princeton University—Racial Segregation and the Black-White Test Score Gap

ERIC BRUNNER, Quinnipiac University, and JENNIFER IMAZEKI, San Diego State University, and STEVE ROSS, University of Connecticut—Racial Segregation and School Vouchers

ROBERT BIFULCO, University of Connecticut, and HELEN LADD, Duke University—School Choice, Racial Segregation and Test-Score Gaps: Evidence from North Carolina's Charter School Program

STEVE ROSS, JOHN CLAPP, and ANUPAN NANDA, University of Connecticut—Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of Racial Composition and School District Performance on Property Values

Discussants: LARRY KENNY, University of Florida
MIGUEL URQUIOLA, Columbia University
THOMAS DOWNES, Tufts University
RANDALL REBACK, Barnard College


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Behavioral Political Economy (D0)

Presiding: STEFANO DELLAVIGNA, University of California-Berkeley

DANIEL BENJAMIN and DAVID LAIBSON, Harvard University—Some Costs and Benefits of Coercive Government

NICOLA GENNAIOLI, Stockholm University, and ANDREI SHLEIFER, Harvard University—The Evolution of Precedent

EDWARD GLAESER, GIACOMO PONZETTO, and JESSE SHAPIRO, Harvard University—Strategic Extremism

STEFANO DELLAVIGNA, University of California-Berkeley, and JOSHUA POLLETT, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign—Voter Inattention and Strategic Signing of Laws

Discussants: BOTOND KOSZEGI, University of California-Berkeley
ULRIKE MALMENDIER, Stanford University
JEFFREY ZWIEBEL, Stanford University
GERARD ROLAND, University of California-Berkeley


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Topics in International Finance (F3)

Presiding: BARRY EICHENGREEN, University of California-Berkeley

HAMID FARUQEE and JAEWOO LEE, International Monetary Fund—Global Dispersion of Current Account: Is the Universe Expanding?

RICHARD LYONS, University of California-Berkeley, and MICHAEL MOORE, Queen’s University of Belfast—An Information Approach to International Currencies

JOHN CARLSON, Purdue University, and CAROL OSLER, Brandeis University—Short-Run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

Discussant: PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS, University of California-Berkeley


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Computer Assisted Instruction: New Work on Instructional Applications (A2)

Presiding: BETTY J. BLECHA, San Francisco State University

BARRY KEATING, University of Notre Dame—Simulation without Wires: An Infinitely Variable Market Simulation

MARCELO CLERICI-ARIAS, Stanford University—From Zero to Agent-Based Modeling in Ten Weeks

MILES B. CAHILL, College of the Holy Cross—Estimating Key Macroeconomic Relationships at the Undergraduate Level: Taylor Rule and Okun’s Law Examples

ALBERTO ISGUT, Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity, TANYA ROSENBLAT and GANESAN RAVISHANKER, Wesleyan University—The Basics of International Trade: A Classroom Experiment

Discussants: CARSTEN LANGE, California State Polytechnic University-Pomona
DANIEL A. TALLEY, South Dakota State University


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

Disentangling Intergenerational Correlations: New Evidence (J6)

Presiding: ANN STEVENS, University of California-Davis

PHILLIP OREOPOULOS, University of Toronto, MARIANNE PAGE, and ANN STEVENS, University of California-Davis—Intergenerational Effects of Unexpected Worker Displacement

BRUCE SACERDOTE, Dartmouth College—How Large Are the Treatment Effects from Shifts in Environment? A Study of Korean American Adoptees

SANDRA BLACK, PAUL DEVEREUX, University of California-Los Angeles, and KJELL SALVANES, Norwegian School of Economics and Statistics—From the Cradle to the Labor Market? The Effect of Birth Weight on Adult Outcomes

Discussants: STEPHEN HAIDER, Michigan State University
JOSEPH ALTONJI, Yale University
AMITABH CHANDRA, Dartmouth College


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA

New Approaches to Trade and FDI: Sorting and Labor Market Institutions (F1)

Presiding: POL ANTRÀS, Harvard University

FRANZISKA OHNSORGE, International Monetary Fund, and DANIEL TREFLER, University of Toronto—Sorting It Out: International Trade and Protection with Heterogeneous Workers

ALEJANDRO CUÑAT, University of Essex, and MARC MELITZ, Harvard University—Labor Market Flexibility and Comparative Advantage

VOLKER NOCKE and STEPHEN YEAPLE, University of Pennsylvania—An Assignment Theory of Foreign Direct Investment

POL ANTRÀS, Harvard University, LUIS GARICANO, University of Chicago, and ESTEBAN ROSSI-HANSBERG, Stanford University—Offshoring in a Knowledge Economy

Discussants: ROBERT FEENSTRA, University of California-Davis
GORDON HANSON, University of California-San Diego
ESTEBAN ROSSI-HANSBERG, Stanford University
DARON ACEMOGLU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA/AFE

Corporate Governance and Asset Pricing

Presiding: LEMMA SENBET, University of Maryland

MILTON HARRIS, University of Chicago, and ARTUR RAVIV, Northwestern University—A Theory of Board Control and Size

K.J. MARTIJN CREMERS, Yale University, VINAY B. NAIR, University of Pennsylvania, and KOSE JOHN, New York University—Takeovers and the Cross-Section of Return

MASSIMO MASSA, URS PEYER, and ZHENSU TONG, INSEAD—Limits of Arbitrage and Corporate Financial Policy

Discussants: BENJAMIN HERMALIN, University of California-Berkeley
ANDREW METRICK, University of Pennsylvania
MALCOLM BAKER, Harvard University


Jan. 8, 8:00 am
AEA/IAFFE

The Economics of Identity: Gender, Race, and Well-Being

Presiding: DIANA STRASSMANN, Rice University

CECILIA CONRAD, Pomona College—Household Bargaining, Gender Relations and the Economics of Identity

ALAN KIRMAN, Université Paul Cézanne and GREQAM, ULRICH HORST, University of British Columbia, Canada, and MIRIAM TESCHL, GREQAM—Changing Identity and Its Impact on Welfare Judgments

RACHEL KRANTON, University of Maryland—Identity and Work

PATRICK MASON, Florida State University—Identity, Markets and Persistent Racial Inequality

AMARTYA SEN, Harvard University—The Ups and Downs of Identity


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

High Growth, Contrasting Stories: China, India, Russia

Presiding: JOSEF BRADA, Arizona State University

KAR-YIU WONG, University of Washington—Why Is Chinese Growth So High?

PRITHA MITRA, Columbia University—Has Government Investment Crowded Out Private Investment in India?

PADMA DESAI, Columbia University—Why Is Russian GDP Growth Slowing?

Discussants: ESWAR PRASAD, International Monetary Fund
ARVIND PANAGARIYA, Columbia University
JOSEF BRADA, Arizona State University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

William Baumol Special Session on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Growth III: International Approach

Presiding: LEORA KLAPPER, World Bank

SIMON PARKER, Durham University—New Agendas in the Economics of Entrepreneurship: Optimism,Education, Wealth and Entrepreneurship

SAUL ESTRIN, London School of Economics, and RUTA AIDIS, University College London —Weak Institutions, Weak Ties and Low Levels of Productive Entrepreneurship in Russia: An Exploration

JINGLIAN WU, Development Research Center of Chinese State Council, and SHAOQING HUANG, China Europe International Business School—The Entrepreneurship and Institutions: A Perspective to Interpret China's Economic Growth in Its Transformation

SIMEON DJANKOV, World Bank, YINGYI QIAN, University of California, Berkeley, GÉRARD ROLAND, University of California, Berkeley, and EKATERINA ZHURAVSKAYA, CEFIR—Entrepreneurship in Development: First Results from China and Russia

Discussants: MARIASSUNTA GIANNETTI, Stockholm School of Economics
LUC LAEVEN, World Bank
LEORA KLAPPER, World Bank


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Mexican Immigration (J6)

Presiding: LAWRENCE KAHN, Cornell University

FRANCINE D. BLAU and LAWRENCE M. KAHN, Cornell University—Gender and Assimilation among Mexican Americans

GEORGE J. BORJAS and LAWRENCE F. KATZ, Harvard University—The Evolution of the Mexican-Born Workforce in the United States

DAVID CARD, University of California-Berkeley, and ETHAN LEWIS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia—The Diffusion of Mexican Immigrants during the 1990s: Explanations and Impacts

EDWARD P. LAZEAR, Stanford University—The Slow Assimilation of Mexicans in the United States

Discussants: KRISTIN BUTCHER, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
RACHEL FRIEDBERG, Brown University
GORDON HANSON, University of California-San Diego
STEPHEN TREJO, University of Texas


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

New Empirical Research on China

Presiding: HONGBIN CAI, University of California-Los Angeles

ERBIAO DAI and NAZRUL ISLAM, ICSEAD—Alternative Estimates of TFP Growth in Mainland China: An Investigation
Using the Dual Approach

BARRY EICHENGREEN, University of California-Berkeley, and HUI TONG, Bank of England—Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?

CARSTEN HOLZ, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology—No Razor's Edge: Reexamining Alwyn Young's Evidence for Increasing Inter-Provincial Trade Barriers in China

HONGBIN CAI, University of California-Los Angeles, QIAO LIU, and GENG XIAO, University of Hong Kong—Does Competition Encourage Corporate Profit Mis-reporting? Evidence from Chinese Firms

Discussants: CHANG-TAI HSIEH, University of California-Berkeley
SHANG-JIN WEI, International Monetary Fund
THOMAS RAWSKI, Harvard University
CHONG-EN BAI, Hong Kong University and Tsinghua University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Health and Development

Presiding: CHRISTINA PAXSON, Princeton University

ELIZABETH FRANKENBERG, University of California-Los Angeles, JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, BONDON SIKOKI, Survey/METER, and DUNCAN THOMAS, University of California-Los Angeles—Health, Income, and Household Resource Allocation: Experimental Evidence

ERICA FIELD, Harvard University—Consequences of Early Marriage for Women in Bangladesh

NAZMUL HASSAN, Dhaka University, MARK M. PITT, Brown University, and MARK ROSENZWEIG, Yale University—Sharing the Burden of Disease: Gender, the Household Divisionof Labor and the Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution

SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN, University of California-Berkeley and Los Angeles—Air Quality and Early-Life Mortality During Indonesia's Massive Wildfires in 1997

Discussants: BEN OLKEN, Harvard Society of Fellows
LENA EDLUND, Columbia University
ADRIANA LLERAS-MUNEY, Princeton University
MICHAEL GREENSTONE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

International Evidence on Educational Inequality (I2)

Presiding: STEVEN G. RIVKIN, Amherst College

MARTIN R. WEST and PAUL E. PETERSON, Harvard University—The Efficacy of Choice Threats within School Accountability Systems: Results from Legislatively Induced Experiments

STEPHEN J. MACHIN, University College London and London School of Economics, and STEPHEN GIBBONS, London School of Economics—Paying for Primary Schools: Admission Constraints, School Popularity or Congestion?

ERIC A. HANUSHEK, Stanford University, and LUDGER WOESSMAN, Ifo Institute, University of Munich and CESifo—Does Educational Tracking Affect Performance and Inequality? Differences-in-Differences Evidence across Countries

Discussants: STEVEN G. RIVKIN, Amherst College
SANDRA BLACK, University of California-Los Angeles
JOHN BISHOP, Cornell University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Market Dynamics: Entry, Exit and New Product Introduction

Presiding: JUDITH CHEVALIER, Yale University

STEPHANIE RIEGG CELLINI, University of California-Los Angeles—Funding Schools or Financing Students: Public Subsidies and the Market for Two-Year College Education

DARLENE CHISHOLM, Suffolk University, and GEORGE NORMAN, Tufts University—When to Exit a Product: Evidence from the U.S. Motion Picture Exhibition Market

MO XIAO, University of Rochester, and PETER ORAZEM, Iowa State University—Do Entry Conditions Vary Over Time? Entry and Competition in the Broadband Market: 1999-2003

SUSANNA ESTEBAN, Pennsylvania State University, and MATTHEW SHUM, Johns Hopkins University—Durable Goods Oligopoly with Secondary Markets: The Case of Automobiles

Discussants: JESSE ROTHSTEIN, Princeton University
JULIE MORTIMER, Harvard University
GINGER JIN, University of Maryland
DANIEL ACKERBERG, University of Arizona


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Laboratory vs. Field Experiments: What Can We Learn? (Roundtable Discussion)

Presiding: GARY BECKER, University of Chicago

COLIN CAMERER, Cal Tech
ERNST FEHR, University of Zurich
JAMES HECKMAN, University of Chicago
JOHN LIST, University of Maryland


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

The Whats and Whys of the 2004 Presidential Election (D7)

Presiding: RAY FAIR, Yale University

DEAN KARLAN, Princeton University—Voting Alone? Evidence on Social Spillovers in Voter Mobilization Efforts

JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ and ERIK SNOWBERG, Stanford University—Correlation vs. Causation in Prediction Markets and the 2004 Elections

KEITH CHEN, JONATHAN E. INGERSOLL, JR., EDWARD H. KAPLAN, Yale University—Do States Swing Together? Evidence from Political Prediction Markets

EDWARD MIGUEL, University of California-Berkeley—Iraq War Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

Discussants: BRIAN KNIGHT, Brown University
EBONYA WASHINGTON, Yale University
STEPHEN ANSOLABEHERE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

The Roots of Innovation (O3)

Presiding: AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, University of Chicago

PHILIPPE AGHION, Harvard University, RACHEL GRIFFITH, University College, London, and PETER HOWITT, Brown University—Competition, Vertical Integration, Innovation and Growth

DARON ACEMOGLU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, DAVID CUTLER, Harvard University, AMY FINKELSTEIN, and JOSHUA LINN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology—Medicare and Medical Innovation

AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, University of Chicago—Intellectual Property and the Supply of New Music

JOSHUA LERNER, PARAG PATHAK, Harvard Business School, and JEAN TIROLE, IDEI Toulouse—Contributors to Open Source

Discussants: SAM KORTUM, University of Minnesota
MARK DUGGAN, University of Maryland
JOEL WALDFOGEL, University of Pennsylvania
SHANE GREENSTEIN, Northwestern University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Reforming the Global Reserve System: Efficiency, Equity, and Stability

Presiding: KENNETH FROOT, Harvard Business School

DANI RODRIK, Harvard University—The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves

JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University and MENZIE CHINN, University of Wisconsin—Will the Euro Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?

BRUCE GREENWALD and JOSEPH STIGLITZ, Columbia University—Restructuring the International Reserve Architecture

Discussants: KENNETH FROOT, Harvard Business School
ROBERT HORMATS, Goldman Sachs
HÉLÈNE REY, Princeton University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

German Reunification: Lessons and Legacy

Presiding: OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MICHAEL BURDA, Humboldt University, Berlin and CEPR—What Kind of Shock Was It? Regional Integration of Eastern Germany after Unification

DENNIS SNOWER and CHRISTIAN MERKL, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel—The Caring Hand That Cripples: The East German Labor Market After Reunification

HARALD UHLIG, Humboldt University, Berlin and CEPR—Regional Labor Markets, Network Externalities and Migration: the Case of German Reunification

Discussants: HANS-WERNER SINN, CESifo and University of Munich
NICOLA FUCHS-SCHUENDELM, Harvard University
CLAUDIA BUCH, University of Tübingen


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA

Computer Assisted Instruction: New Resources and Directions (A2)

Presiding: TOD S. PORTER, Youngstown State University

INNA POMORINA and JESSICA LINCOLN, University of Bristol, United Kingdom—New Developments in the UK Economics Network

REBECCA TAYLOR, Nottingham Trent University—Mathematics for Economics: Enhancing Teaching and Learning (METAL)

WINFRIED REISS, University of Paderborn—Dynamics and E-Learning

Discussants: KIM SOSIN, University of Nebraska-Omaha
STEVEN MYERS, University of Akron


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA/ACAES

European and Asian Integration: Trade and Monetary Issues

Presiding: SEIJI F. NAYA, East-West Center, and MICHAEL G. PLUMMER, Johns Hopkins University

PETER A. PETRI, Brandeis University—The Re-emerging East Asian Trading Bloc

ROLF LANGHAMMER and RAINER SCHWEICKERT, Kiel Institute for World Economics—EU Integration and Its Implications for Asian Economies

REID CLICK, George Washington University—On the Composition of Asian Central Bank Reserves: Will the Euro Replace the Dollar?

MICHAEL G. PLUMMER, Johns Hopkins University—The ASEAN Economic Community and the European Experience

Discussants: RICHARD HOOLEY, University of Pittsburgh
STEVEN HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh
RICHARD POMFRET, University of Adelaide
MORDECHAI KREININ, Michigan State University


Jan. 8, 10:15 am
AEA/TPUG

Regulation and Antitrust in a Deregulating Telecommunications Industry

Presiding: JOHN W. MAYO, Georgetown University

ROGER NOLL, Stanford University—Is Substituting Competition for Regulation Still Feasible after Trinko?

TIMOTHY BRENNAN, University of Maryland-Baltimore County—Trinko versus Baxter: The Demise of U.S. v. AT&T

MICHAEL R. WARD, University of Texas-Arlington, and GLENN A. WOROCH, University of California-Berkeley—Fixed-Mobile Telephone Subscription: Substitution in the U.S.

SCOTT WALLSTEN, AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies—Broadband Penetration: An Empirical Analysis of State and Federal Policies

Discussants: PAUL JOSKOW, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT MAJURE, U.S. Department of Justice
THOMAS LYON, University of Michigan


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

External Adjustment

Presiding: PAOLO PESENTI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (F3)

DAVID BACKUS, GIAN LUCA CLEMENTI, and FREDERIC LAMBERT, New York University—Current Account Fact and Fiction

PHILIP LANE, Trinity College, Dublin, and GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI, International Monetary Fund—The Dynamics of External Imbalances: A Portfolio Approach

PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS, University of California-Berkeley, and HÉLÈNE REY, Princeton University—The Intertemporal Approach to the Financial Account

POL ANTRÀS, Harvard University, MIHIR DESAI, and FRITZ FOLEY, Harvard Business School—FDO Flows and Multinational Firm Activity

Discussants: PAOLO PESENTI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
FABRIZIO PERRI, New York University
GITA GOPINATH, University of Chicago


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Land Rights and Social Security in China (Q1)

Presiding: BAOHONG SUN, Carnegie Mellon University

KLAUS DEININGER, SONGQIN JIN, World Bank, and SCOTT ROZELLE, University of California-Davis—Dynamics of Legal Change in a Decentralized Setting

JAMES WEN, Trinity College—China's Rural Land Tenure System, Insecure Rental Market, and Full-Time Farmers' Worsening Relative Income

SHENGGEN FAN, International Food Policy Research Institute, XIAOPENG LUO, Guizhou University LI XING, International Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Chinese
Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and XIAOBO ZHANG, International Food Policy Research Institute—Village Inequality in Western China

XIAOBO ZHANG, International Food Policy Research Institute—Asymmetric Property Rights in China's Economic Growth

Discussants: YANG YAO, Peking University
XIAOPENG LUO, Guizhou University
SCOTT ROZELLE, University of California-Davis
XIAO-YUAN DONG, University of Winnipeg


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Behavioral Labor Economics

Presiding: LAWRENCE KATZ, Harvard University

HENRY FARBER, Princeton University—Reference-Dependent Preferences and Labor Supply: The Case of New York City Taxi Drivers

ERNST FEHR, University of Munich—Behavioral Effects of Minimum Wages

JOSHUA LERNER, Harvard University, and ULRIKE MALMENDIER, Stanford University—Mecca or Mirage? The Determinants and Outcomes of Entrepreneurship of Recent Harvard Business Graduates

MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago, BORIS GROYSBERG, Harvard University, and FRANK YU, University of Chicago—How Women Compete in a Man’s World: A Study of Financial Analysts

Discussants: COLIN CAMERER, California Institute of Technology
ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University
DAVID BLANCHFLOWER, Dartmouth College
MURIEL NIEDERLE, Stanford University


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Climate, Technology and the Economy

Presiding: CHARLES KOLSTAD, University of California-Santa Barbara

KEVIN SIMMONS, Austin College, and DANIEL SUTTER, University of Oklahoma—The Benefits and Costs of NEXRAD Weather Radar

BRADLEY EWING, SCOTT HEIN, Texas Tech University, and JAMIE KRUSE, East Carolina University—Insurer Stock Price Responses to Hurricane Floyd: An Event Study Analysis Using Storm Characteristics

LEOPOLDO SOTO ARRIAGADA, University of California-Santa Barbara—Optimal Crop Choice: Farmer Adaptation to Climate Change

GREGORY DOW, NANCY OLEWILER, and CLYDE REED, Simon Fraser University—The Transition to Agriculture: Climate Reversals, Population Density, and Technical Change

Discussants: SALLY KANE, National Science Foundation
PAUL KOVACS, Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction and University of Western Ontario
MOLLY MACAULEY, Resources for the Future
RODNEY WEIHER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Children’s Human Capital

Presiding: LISA BARROW, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

JOYCE CHEN, Harvard University—Migration and Imperfect Monitoring: Implications for Intrahousehold Allocation

YOONYOUNG CHO, Korea Development Institute—Investment in Children’s Human Capital: Implications of PROGRESA

DEBORAH S. DEGRAFF, Bowdoin College, and DEBORAH LEVISON, University of Minnesota—Children’s Work and Mothers’ Work—What is the Connection?

JUSTINE S. HASTINGS, Yale University, THOMAS J. KANE, Harvard University, and DOUGLAS O. STAIGER, Dartmouth College—Gender and Performance: Evidence from School Assignment by Randomized Lottery

Discussants: CHRISTINA PAXSON, Princeton University
LANCE LOCHNER, University of Western Ontario
MARK PITT, Brown University
CECILIA ROUSE, Princeton University


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Understanding the Relationship between Education and Health (I1)

Presiding: MICHAEL GROSSMAN, City University of New York and NBER

DAMIEN DE WALQUE, World Bank—Education, Information, and Smoking Decisions: Evidence from Smoking Histories, 1940-2000

DANA GOLDMAN and DARIUS LAKDAWALLA, RAND—A Theory of Health Disparities and Medical Technology

DOUGLAS ALMOND, Columbia University, and BHASHKAR MAZUMDER, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago—How Did Compulsory Schooling Reduce Mortality Risk among the Elderly?

Discussants: STEPHEN SNYDER, Lehigh University
ADRIANA LLERAS-MUNEY, Princeton University
RACHEL KRANTON, University of Maryland


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

New Directions in Economic History

Presiding: AVNER GREIF, Stanford University

PETER TEMIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and HANS-JOACHIM VOTH, Universitat Pompeu Fabra—Interest Rate Restrictions in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

GARY LIBECAP, University of Arizona—Western Water Rights and Markets

RAN ABRAMITZKY, Stanford University—The Limits of Equality: Insights from the Israeli Kibbutz

Discussants: HUGH ROCKOFF, Rutgers University
MICHAEL GREENSTONE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DORA COSTA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Explanations for Gaps between the Academic Achievement of Black Students and White Students (I2)

Presiding: RONALD FERGUSON, Harvard University

KRISTEN BUB, KATHLEEN McCARTNEY, RICHARD MURNANE, and JOHN WILLETT, Harvard University—Understanding Black-White Achievement Differences during Elementary School

ERIC HANUSHEK, Stanford University, and STEVEN RIVKIN, Amherst College—The Evolution of the Black-White Achievement Gap in Elementary and Middle Schools

CAROLINE HOXBY and GRETCHEN WEINGARTH, Harvard University—Is the Racial Gap in Achievement Really a Poverty Gap?

ERIC BETTINGER, Case Western Reserve University, and BRIDGET LONG, Harvard University—Peer Effects and Student Achievement: The Role of Race in the College Classroom

Discussants: THOMAS DEE, Swarthmore College
SANDRA BLACK, University of California-Los Angeles
RONALD FERGUSON, Harvard University
JAMES KEMPLE, Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

The New Economics of Retirement System Design and Structure (D1)

Presiding: OLIVIA MITCHELL, University of Pennsylvania

JULIE R. AGNEW, College of William and Mary—Personalized Retirement Advice and Managed Accounts: Who Uses Them and How Does It Affect Behavior in 401(k) Plans?

OLIVIA MITCHELL, University of Pennsylvania, GARRY MOTTOLA, STEVE UTKUS, Vanguard, and TAKESHI YAMAGUCHI, University of Pennsylvania—The Inattentive Participant: Portfolio Trading Behavior in 401(k) Plans

STEPHANIE AARONSON and JULIA CORONADO, Federal Reserve Board—Are Firms or Workers Behind the Shift Away from DB Pensions?

JAMES J. CHOI, XAVIER GABAIX, DAVID LAIBSON, Harvard University, and BRIGITTE MADRIAN, University of Pennsylvania—Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds

Discussants: ROBERT CLARK, North Carolina State University
TERRY ODEAN, University of California-Berkeley
ZVI BODIE, Boston University
JEFFREY BROWN, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Consumption Commitments (D8)

Presiding: RAJ CHETTY, University of California-Berkeley

ANDREW POSTLEWAITE, University of Pennsylvania, LARRY SAMUELSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and DAN SILVERMAN, University of Michigan—Consumption Commitments and Employment Contracts

STEPHEN SHORE and TODD SINAI, University of Pennsylvania—Commitment, Risk, and Consumption: Do Birds of a Feather Have Bigger Nests?

MARJORIE FLAVIN, University of California-San Diego, and SHINOBU NAKAGAWA, Bank of Japan—A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence

RAJ CHETTY and ADAM SZEIDL, University of California-Berkeley—Consumption Commitments and Risk Preferences

Discussants: TRUMAN BEWLEY, Yale University
NICOLA FUCHS-SCHUENDELN, Harvard University
MONIKA PIAZZESI, University of Chicago
ANNAMARIA LUSARDI, Dartmouth College


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism (E5)

Presiding: JAY SHAMBAUGH, Dartmouth College

JULIAN DI GIOVANNI, International Monetary Fund, and JAY SHAMBAUGH, Dartmouth College—The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

ADAM ASHCRAFT, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and MURILLO CAMPELLO, University of Illinois—Borrowers’ Financial Constraints and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Financial Conglomerates

ROBERT CHIRINKO and CHRISTOPHER CURRAN, Emory University—Greenspan Shrugs: Formal Pronouncements, Bond Market Volatility, and Central Bank Communication

JACQUES MINIANE, International Monetary Fund, and JOHN ROGERS, Federal Reserve Board—Capital Controls and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Shocks

Discussants: MENZIE CHINN, University of Wisconsin
SOYOUNG KIM, Korea University
JEREMY STEIN, Harvard University
KENNETH KUTTNER, Oberlin College


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

War, Terrorism and Investors (G1)

Presiding: GEORGE BITTLINGMAYER, University of Kansas

MORTON NIELSEN, ASAF ZUSSMAN, Cornell University, and NOAM ZUSSMAN, Bank of Israel—Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

SAMER HAJ-YEHIA, Analysis Group—Terrorizing Consumers and Investors

JAMES BARTH, DONALD McCARTHY, TRIPHON PHUMIWASANA, and GLENN YAGO, Milken Institute—Financial Market Reactions to Disruptive Events: The Case of the Middle East

GEORGE BITTLINGMAYER, University of Kansas—Oil and Stocks: Is It War Risk?

Discussants: JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania
JOACHIM VOTH, New York University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
CLAUDE BERREBI, Princeton University and RAND
STEPHEN BROWN, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA

Interest Rates and Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets (F4)

Presiding: DIEGO VALDERRAMA, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

VIVIAN Z. YUE, New York University—Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation

SYLVAIN LEDUC, Federal Reserve Board, and DIEGO VALDERRAMA, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco—Financial Frictions, Distribution Costs, and Current Account Crises

GALINA HALE, Yale University—Are Private Borrowers Hurt by Sovereign Debt Rescheduling?

Discussants: KATHERINE SMITH, U.S. Naval Academy
DAVID COOK, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
DOIREANN FITZGERALD, University of California-Santa Cruz


Jan. 8, 1:00 pm
AEA/EPS

Economics and National Security (Roundtable) (H5)

Presiding: MICHAEL D. INTRILIGATOR, University of California-Los Angeles

PETER GALBRAITH, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
CARL KAYSEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
LAWRENCE R. KORB, Center for American Progress
RICHARD R. KAUFMAN, Economists for Peace and Security
GARETH PORTER, Foreign Policy in Focus
ROBERT M. SOLOW, Massachusetts Institute of Technology