June 16 -- BLS releases experimental monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data (Feb 2001 - Dec 2019) for 18 largest metropolitan areas and requests user feedback.
Research Estimates Methodology: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jlt_msadata_methodology.htm
BLS Commissioner blog: https://blogs.bls.gov/blog/2020/06/16/new-state-and-metropolitan-area-data-from-the-job-openings-and-labor-turnover-survey/
BLS is researching the possibility of producing model-assisted JOLTS estimates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) total nonfarm level. The experimental estimates released today are currently only available as a one-time release. The estimates are for the 18-largest MSAs, those with 1.5 million or more employees. We encourage data users to review these estimates and provide feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org on both the technical aspects of the models and the usability of the resulting data.
The JOLTS sample of 16,000 establishments does not directly support the production of sample based state or sub-state estimates. However, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) estimates have been produced for the 18-largest MSAs identified by Current Employment Statistics (CES) Metro Area employment by combining the available sample with model-based estimates, and smoothed by taking a 3-month moving average. These data are experimental. As such, they have not been subject to the same level of review as the current official JOLTS national and regional estimates. BLS is inviting data users to comment on both the methodology used to produce these estimates and on the usefulness of these data.
These estimates consist of four major estimating models; the Composite Regional model (an unpublished intermediate model), the Synthetic model (an unpublished intermediate model), the Composite Synthetic model (published historical series through the most current benchmark year), and the Extended Composite Synthetic model (published current-year monthly series). The Composite Regional model uses JOLTS microdata, JOLTS regional published estimates, and Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment data. The Composite Synthetic model uses JOLTS microdata and Synthetic model estimates derived from monthly employment changes in microdata from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), and JOLTS published regional data. The Extended Composite Synthetic extends the Composite Synthetic estimates by ratio-adjusting the Composite Synthetic by the ratio of the current Composite Regional model estimate to the Composite Regional model estimate from one year ago.
The Extended Composite Synthetic model (and its major component—the Composite Regional model) is used to extend the Composite Synthetic estimates because all of the inputs required by this model are available at the time monthly estimate are produced. In contrast, the Composite Synthetic model (and its major component—the Synthetic model) can only be produced when the latest QCEW data are available. The plan is to use Extended Composite Synthetic model estimates to extend the Composite Synthetic model estimates during the annual JOLTS re-tabulation process. The extension of the Composite Synthetic model using current data-based Composite Regional model estimates will ensure that the Composite Synthetic model estimates reflect current economic trends.