May 26 -- The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is issuing this notice and request for information (RFI) to seek input from the public on implementation of the Community Disaster Resilience Zones Act of 2022, including updates to the methodology and data used for the National Risk Index and any other hazard assessment products; potential improvements to FEMA's provision of hazard data; the process used to designate community disaster resilience zones; financial and technical assistance for resilience or mitigation projects primarily benefitting community disaster resilience zones; and the community disaster resilience zone project application and certification process. Comments must be received no later than July 25, 2023.
The Community Disaster Resilience Zones Act of 2022, Public Law 117–255, 136 Stat. 2363, amended title II of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (42 U.S.C. 5121 et seq.) (Stafford Act) to add a new section 206 (42 U.S.C. 5136) that requires the: (1) maintenance of a natural hazard assessment program and development and maintenance of products for the public's use that show the risk of natural hazards through use of risk ratings at the census tract level; and (2) designation of, at the census tract level, community disaster resilience zones based on the natural hazard risk ratings derived from a natural hazard risk product maintained by the natural hazard assessment program.
Section 206 also provides FEMA the discretion to: (1) increase the Federal cost share to not more than 90 percent under the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities grant program for mitigation projects within, or primarily benefiting, a community disaster resilience zone; (2) provide financial and technical assistance to State, local, Tribal, and Territorial governments for project planning assistance to carry out activities in preparation for a mitigation project; and (3) establish a process for FEMA certification, and provide certification for mitigation projects within, or primarily benefiting, a community disaster resilience zone.
In November 2020, FEMA announced the availability of the National Risk Index with limited access to data. On August 16, 2021, FEMA released a full web application which enhanced the data and report functionality. The National Risk Index data and application were updated on March 23, 2023 (detailed below). The National Risk Index is a publicly available dataset and online mapping application that identifies the U.S. communities at most risk for 18 different natural hazards. The 18 hazard types evaluated by the National Risk Index were chosen after reviewing FEMA-approved State Hazard Mitigation Plans for all 50 states in early 2016.
The National Risk Index application visualizes natural hazard risk metrics and includes important data about expected annual losses, social vulnerability, and community resilience. All National Risk Index data are publicly available in spatial and tabular formats. The National Risk Index data are derived probabilistic data sources or built from historic event and historic loss information, and are aggregated to the county and census tract levels, thus providing a baseline risk assessment and natural hazard risk profiles. While natural hazard occurrences can induce secondary natural hazard occurrences, only primary natural hazard occurrences (and not their results or after-effects) are considered in the National Risk Index.
Currently, the National Risk Index does not account for future conditions or anticipated impacts due to climate change.
With current National Risk Index information, users can discover a holistic view of their community's baseline and current risk from natural hazards via online maps and data downloads. With improved understanding of natural hazard risk, users can take action to reduce it and build more resilient communities. Potential users might be planners and emergency managers at the State, local, Tribal, Territorial, and Federal levels; as well as other decision makers, private sector entities and interested members of the public. The interactive mapping application can help decision makers better prepare for and mitigate natural hazard events by providing standardized risk data for planning and an overview of multiple risk factors. In turn, these data can help State, local, Tribal, or Territorial governments develop FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans, required to apply for and/or receive certain FEMA assistance and mitigation grants. More importantly, use of these data can help all users plan for disasters and increase resilience.
The National Risk Index is different from other traditional hazard data and models because of the scope and scale of its analyses. For communities that do not have access to natural hazard risk assessment services, the National Risk Index is a valuable product since it uses authoritative data from a variety of Federal, State, local, academic, non-profit, and private sector partners and contributors, and provides users analysis of their risk to a natural hazard. The National Risk Index leverages best-available source data and methods to provide a holistic view of the current and baseline community-level risk nationwide by combining multiple hazards with socioeconomic and built environment factors.
In addition to Federal collaborators, the National Risk Index incorporates data from a wide range of relevant sources across the country to ensure the tool's robustness. This includes more than 90 partners across the public and private sectors, including State, regional and local government agencies; academia; private organizations; and nonprofits. Data were collected from best available resources between 2018 and 2023.
FEMA publishes and maintains a publicly available National Risk Index-specific Technical Document to highlight the National Risk Index research and methodologies for developing all components of the tool. Previously released National Risk Index data versions, documentation, and data updates documentation are available through the National Risk Index Data Archive.
Section 206(c) (42 U.S.C. 5136(c)) specifies the natural hazard risk product must (1) show the risk of natural hazards; and (2) include ratings and data for loss exposure, social vulnerability, community resilience, and any other element determined necessary by the President. Section 206(e) (42 U.S.C. 5136(e)) requires FEMA to receive public input on the methodology and data used for the product.
As currently maintained, the National Risk Index meets the Community Disaster Resilience Zones Act requirements for a natural hazard risk product that can serve as the basis for community disaster resilience zone designations under section 206(d) (42 U.S.C. 5136(d)). The National Risk Index includes three components to define natural hazard risk: (1) a community's expected annual loss, based on hazard frequency, exposure, and historic loss ratio for buildings, population equivalence, and agriculture; (2) social vulnerability; and (3) community resilience.
Overall risk index scores and individual natural hazard risk index scores are calculated for each county and census tract included in the National Risk Index. An overall risk index score measures the risk of a location considering all 18 natural hazards included in the index. An individual natural hazard risk index score measures the risk of a location for a single natural hazard.
The National Risk Index uses the following equation to derive a risk index score, which is described in more detail below: Risk = Expected Annual Loss x f(Social Vulnerability/Community Resilience)
Expected Annual Loss measures the potential average annual expected loss of building value, population/population equivalence (monetized fatalities and injuries), and agricultural (crop and livestock) value due to natural hazards. Data sources include, but are not limited to FEMA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Census, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and are detailed in the National Risk Index Technical Documentation.[8]
Social Vulnerability measures the susceptibility of populations to the adverse impacts of natural hazards. A relatively higher social vulnerability score indicates that the community is either more likely to experience adverse impacts or that the impacts will be more severe. The National Risk Index currently uses the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Social Vulnerability Index to measure social vulnerability. . . .
Community Resilience measures the ability of a community to prepare for anticipated natural hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. The National Risk Index uses the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities index to measure community resilience. The Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities is a place-based measurement of community resilience accounting for social, economic, community capital, institutional, infrastructural, and environmental resilience factors. A community with a relatively higher community resilience score indicates that community is more likely to absorb adverse natural hazard impacts. The Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities does not have data for U.S. territories, and the data are only available at the county level.
The National Risk Index is only a snapshot of natural hazard risk primarily based on historically derived and generated hazard information (data collection timeframes are detailed in the National Risk Index Technical Documentation). This produces a baseline for natural hazard risk across the U.S. As the landscape of natural hazards, the built environment, and land use change over time, the National Risk Index must be updated to reflect these changes and to anticipate future conditions. To understand effects of changing climate on natural hazard risk, future conditions data are needed to support the creation of future natural hazard risk data. This includes, but is not limited to, natural hazard frequency, exposure, intensity and duration, building stock, population and demographics, and crop and livestock data.
To further improve its suitability for Community Disaster Resilience Zone Act implementation, FEMA made several data and methodology changes to the National Risk Index as detailed below. These changes improve accuracy, address user feedback and needs, enable measurement of risk over time, and support future integration of climate change data. As part of the National Risk Index data version 1.19.0 release on March 23, 2023, the following changes were made . . .
Current National Risk Index data and methodologies are detailed in the National Risk Index Technical Documentation, and more information about these and previous changes to data and methodologies are available in the Data Version and Update Documentation found on the National Risk Index Data Archive Page.
Section 206(d) (42 U.S.C. 5136(d)) requires that FEMA designate zones at the census tract level based on the natural hazard risk ratings derived from a natural hazard risk product maintained by the natural hazard assessment program. . . .
The following list of [36] questions is non-exhaustive and is meant to assist members of the public in the formulation of comments. It is not intended to restrict the issues that commenters may address . . .
National Risk Index:
https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Community Disaster Resilience Zones
https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/national-risk-index/community-disaster-resilience-zones
FRN:
https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2023-11268 [6 pages]
