1 Answer

+1 vote
answered ago by (2.7k points)
edited ago by
I can't read your paper right now but I'll check it out later.

The answer is yes. The recurring replication of crisis under a capitalist system has a reason. But I can't explain it right now. We are working on that issue, but at the moment it's classified. Of course, there are a few factors that can trigger this effect as a credit contraction or a high imports price (i. e.  Oil prices). It happened in the last two bigger recessions. We have to distinguish as well between long cycles and short cycles. Long cycles have more than one business negative cycle and they usually start and finish in a big recession.
commented ago by (2.7k points)
I have read it. You are doing a good job but the main reason of the negative business cycles is a bit more deep. Your theories are just effects of the growth and shrink of an economy. How old are you bud? I can see that your blog is called EconTeen. You'll be a good economist in the future if you are wondering those kind of matters being young!
commented ago by (290 points)
Thank you for reading it sir!
Even if my theories aren't deep enough, I do find it interesting that there appears to be a stronger correlation between unemployment rate and delinquency of loans, as opposed to comparing the GDP to one of the indicators. (just from my observations of looking at the graphs I put together on stlouisfed.org). I also find it interesting that when the unemployment rate stays flat for a little while and doesn't go up or down, that is when there ends up starting to be that upward trend in the delinquency rate of loans and unemployment rate, as if that's due to when businesses aren't growing as quickly as expected due to a lack of that marginal increase in growth that was from previously hiring workers (based on my hypothesis).
Thanks for your compliment sir! I definitely plan to continue to farther my studies.
commented ago by (2.7k points)
I can't comment on this issue, but you are following the good path. There is a correllation between unpaid private debt and unemployment and vice versa.