Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) This organization was founded by the late Geoffrey Moore who devoted
his career to business cycle analysis (for instance, he was one of the
developers of the Leading Economic Indices). Analysis, development and
forecasting continue here with new methods and techniques. Notably,
this firm forecasted the 1990-91 and the 2001 recessions and the 1998
Japanese downturn (many missed the latter two events).
This firm specializes in longer range leading indices and leading
inflation indices for the U.S. and other economies than is otherwise
available. These indices are updated very frequently. Back issues of
"U.S. Cyclical Outlook" and "International Cyclical Outlook" (which
covers 19 countries, including the G-7 and China) are freely available to all.
They also offer business cycle turning points for the U.S. and all
other countries covered by ECRI, as well as historical data for the
ECRI Weekly Leading Index (published in "Business Week") and the
JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index. The firm also offers training to
governments and the development of private indicators.