Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)

This organization was founded by the late Geoffrey Moore who devoted his career to business cycle analysis (for instance, he was one of the developers of the Leading Economic Indices). Analysis, development and forecasting continue here with new methods and techniques. Notably, this firm forecasted the 1990-91 and the 2001 recessions and the 1998 Japanese downturn (many missed the latter two events).

This firm specializes in longer range leading indices and leading inflation indices for the U.S. and other economies than is otherwise available. These indices are updated very frequently. Back issues of "U.S. Cyclical Outlook" and "International Cyclical Outlook" (which covers 19 countries, including the G-7 and China) are freely available to all. They also offer business cycle turning points for the U.S. and all other countries covered by ECRI, as well as historical data for the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (published in "Business Week") and the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index. The firm also offers training to governments and the development of private indicators.