Polarization, Trust, and Institutions
Paper Session
Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PST)
- Chair: Guglielmo Briscese, University of Chicago
Sorting Fact from Fiction in a Complex World under the Shadow of Motivated Reasoning
Abstract
We combine a simple model and a survey-experimental study in Austria, Germany, and the UK to investigate how sorting fact from fiction and updating from news are influenced by cognitive ability, motivated reasoning, and overconfidence in complex topics, such as climate change and science. We predict and find evidence that cognitive ability (i.e., both IQ and education) improves news discernment. The positive effect of cognitive ability is robust and immune to motivated reasoning. In particular, the ability to give correct answers that counter one’s existing issue opinions and biases increases in both IQ and education. These novel results are good news, suggesting the malleability of news discernment. However, when we disaggregate data by news topic, we find that higher cognitive ability may sometimes boost motivated decision making. Our findings suggest that institutions matter. Trust in institutions reduces the magnitude of motivated reasoning, which likely helps limit opinion polarization in the longer term. On average, respondents in Germany perform better than those in Austria and the UK, and Germany ranks ahead of the other two countries in prominent institutional rankings.Cognitive Skills and the Demand for Bad Policy
Abstract
Rational choice theories assume citizens accurately assess policy options. However, many policies---such as price controls or Pigouvian taxation---yield \emph{equilibrium effects} that citizens may underestimate, leading to support for harmful policies or opposition to beneficial ones. This under-appreciation might be linked to cognitive functions, raising fundamental research questions: Do cognitive abilities influence citizens' preferences regarding policies, especially untried reforms? If so, what is the underlying mechanism? We use a theoretical framework and an experiment using an UK-representative sample to show that enhanced cognitive abilities can lead to better policy choices. Moreover, we emphasize the crucial role of beliefs about \emph{other citizens'} cognitive abilities. These findings have important policy implications as they suggest that educational programs developing cognitive skills or interventions increasing trust in others' understanding could improve the quality of democratic decision-making in our societies. We complement these findings with the textual analysis of two open ended policy questions and external evidence from a main socioeconomic survey.Trust and Health-Care Seeking Behaviors
Abstract
We present results from a nationally representative survey of American adults, guided by a simple theoretical model expressing health care-seeking behavior as a function of economic and behavioral fundamentals and highlighting the role of trust. We report several findings. First, we document a strong association between higher levels of trust in the health care system and reported care-seeking behavior, both retrospective and anticipated. This relationship holds across several care scenarios, from routine check-ups to vaccinations. Second, the impact of trust on health care utilization is similar in magnitude to that of factors such as income and education, long recognized as crucial in the existing literature. Third, the relationship between trust and care seeking behavior appears to be mediated by key mechanisms from our theoretical framework, notably individuals’ beliefs about the system's effectiveness in managing their health and their personal disutility tied to medical visits. Fourth, we ask respondents about trust in specific health care system sectors, and we find important heterogeneity in the associations between trust and care-seeking behavior, notably between trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the likelihood to receive flu and COVID-19 vaccinations. Finally, we find no differential relationship between trust and care-seeking for Black respondents, but we find important differences by age and political affiliation. Our findings hold significant implications for policy, particularly given that trust in medical and, more broadly, scientific expertise is increasingly difficult to establish.Restoring Trust in Public Institutions
Abstract
Trust in public institutions is essential for fostering compliance with behaviors that mitigate societal challenges and reduce negative externalities. However, in the U.S. and other Western nations, such trust has steadily declined, often along ideological lines. While prior research has examined the causes and consequences of this erosion, effective strategies to rebuild institutional trust remain underexplored. This study hypothesizes that diminished trust stems partly from behavioral inattention, where citizens rely on ideological heuristics rather than engaging with institution-sourced information that could inform their decisions. Using two experiments conducted during the 2020 and 2024 U.S. elections, we demonstrate that lowering search costs for valuable institution-sourced information significantly improves factual knowledge, strengthens institutional trust, and promotes compliance with recommended policies and behaviors. Importantly, these effects persist over time and reflect deliberate belief updates, as revealed by meta-cognition measures. Our findings underscore the potential of well-designed educational campaigns to counteract biased perceptions, restore trust, and encourage pro-social behaviors.Discussant(s)
Victoria Prowse
,
Purdue University
Patricia Fearon Andrews
,
Stanford University
Alessandra Cassar
,
University of San Francisco
Alexander Coutts
,
York University
Galina Zudenkova
,
TU Dortmund University
JEL Classifications
- D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- H1 - Structure and Scope of Government