« Back to Results

Conflicts and Inclusive Growth in China, Africa and Theory

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PST)

Parc 55
Hosted By: Association for Social Economics
  • Chair: Hendrik Van den Berg, University of Massachusetts-Amherst

Escalating International Conflicts: How Can We Reverse Them before They Become Catastrophes?

Hendrik Van den Berg
,
University of Massachusetts-Amherst

Abstract

Throughout the world we are seeing many sharp escalations of international political conflicts. In addition to the deadly retaliation by Israel against the Palestinians in Gaza, the growing military support of the ruling government of Ukraine by the US and the EU countries, and the increasingly aggressive stance by the US toward China, there are myriad additional conflicts escalating throughout Africa, the Middle East, and the Far East. Among the obvious questions are: What is driving the escalating violence, destruction, and death? More importantly, can these escalations in violence, destruction, and death be stopped before they take on catastrophic proportions? In this paper, we use game theory in order to analyze policy and institutional policies that can de-escalate international conflicts. Game theory can provide useful insight into whether nations and their policymakers are behaving in ways that are perhaps nationally rational but internationally damaging. Specifically, we set up a repeated game framework in which multiple players act and react to each others’ actions and reactions. We begin with a simple two-person prisoners’ dilemma game, and then expand the game to multiple players. In the latter case, we allow for more complex strategies involving not only two national adversaries, but also their allies, coalition partners, and colonies. This expansion of the games allows us to analyze complex long-term conflicts such as those in Palestine, Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, and the China Sea region. We find that, indeed, there are alternative political, economic, and military strategies that clearly have very different likely outcomes. The choices nations make hinges on how strongly the policymakers in power desire peace.

Industrial Policy to Promote More Inclusive Growth: Lessons from China

Zhenzhen Zhang
,
SOAS

Abstract

The discussions on industrial policy in China, particularly highlighted through two key debates in the 21st century, illuminate contrasting perspectives on the role of government in economic development. The debates also delved into the dichotomy of active versus limited government roles, with implications for effective policy-making and economic outcomes. These discussions underscore the complexity of industrial policy formulation, reflecting diverse economic paradigms and perspectives, and advocating for a nuanced approach that balances government intervention with market dynamics. The theme of industrial policy for inclusive growth in developing China revolves around the “China model” of economic success, combining political authoritarianism with elements of capitalism. Moreover, discussions on industrial policy in China extend to the implications of regional disparities, concern for special groups, and the need for policies that promote inclusive growth. The importance of a balanced approach to industrial policy will be recognized by the role of government in creating a conducive environment for private sector growth while enhancing public sector capabilities. However, the challenges of a weak global economy and the change for the path of inclusive growth should not be ignored in the case of China, not only from critiques of policy suggestions for not being scientific or rigorous enough but also from a call for a more careful and staged approach to establish an efficient economic system under the structural transformation. This will also bring some lessons from China’s experience to the policy-making & improvement of Global South’s inclusive growth path. In light of this, this proposal will mainly discuss the following three sections: (1) Discussions on Industrial Policy in China, (2) Industrial Policy for Inclusive Growth in Developing China, and (3) Policy-making to Promote More Inclusive Growth in Global South: Lessons from China.

Financialization of Life and Ecological Transition amid Growing Inequality and Risk

Faruk Ülgen
,
Université Grenoble Alpes

Abstract

This article argues that the compulsory economic and ecological transformation of our societies for a sustainable and more equitable world requires appropriate institutional environment and regulation according to the global goal of dealing with growing inequalities and risks. Over the last few decades, the free-market ideology has transformed capitalism into a financialized speculative rent machine, and increased economic fragility and inequality. To date, humanity faces growing environmental concerns and must fight against economic, social and political instabilities. However, research on alternative ways of transforming societies into more livable communities under the burden of climate financing suffers from a lack of appropriate economic and social governance. Achieving society-wide sustainable development goals requires us to rethink our approaches to climate change and transition financing. Climate catastrophes, mostly connected to our way of organizing and managing life on Earth, generate huge systemic risks for economies and people. An alternative way of governing our essential public good, life, is to find out solutions to mitigate harms and adapt economies to this fundamental equation. Our long-lasting issues, -environmental and resource depletion, poverty and inequality, socio-political instabilities, etc.- should be treated within the process of global change: the eco-transition. Dealing with inequalities in the face of growing economic and environmental risks, improving living conditions of citizens and making life affordable for everyone require a global governance of transition. The article then points to necessary institutional reforms that call for innovative approaches to frame our collective goals and to finance the global process of change. Global financial governance and eco-transition should be framed to fostering transformation of markets and institutions to achieve worldwide sustainable development through the provision of two global public goods – financial stability and sustainability (FSS) and economic/ecological sustainability (EES) – both sine qua non for a viable and fairer world.

Heterodox Migration Decisions under Unemployment: A Socioeconomic Perspective from China

Issac Hsu
,
National Chengchi University

Abstract

During China's rapid urbanization, regional disparities in unemployment and income coexist, yet many unemployed workers do not migrate. Due to the unique household registration (hukou) system, migration costs are particularly high for the unemployed in China. Adopting a socioeconomic perspective and using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies 2000-2022, this paper investigates the non-economic factors and heterodox motives behind regional mobility of the unemployed. Fixed-effects regressions reveal:
1. Non-economic factors such as children's education and family reunification significantly influence the migration decisions of the unemployed. Social network theory suggests that the unemployed are more likely to migrate to regions with family and friends.
2. Unemployment triggers some heterodox migration behaviors: some people forgo income to return to their hometowns; some men migrate and form new families. This reflects the heterogeneity in individual preferences and the pursuit of human dignity.
3. The impact of regional migration on the income of the unemployed is complex. Those who migrate to megacities for employment see wage increases; but those who return to rural hometowns suffer huge income losses. This demonstrates the tradeoff between economic and social motives for migration.
4. Unemployment is associated with fertility and marriage decisions, further shaping migration behavior. Endogeneity issues make causal effects difficult to identify.
In sum, in the Chinese context, hukou barriers raise migration costs for the unemployed, making non-economic factors and social networks even more crucial in their heterodox migration decisions. Although migrants seem worse off in terms of employment and income, considering non-monetary utility, the net effect of migration on social welfare is not necessarily negative. This informs policymakers that in addressing unemployment, it is imperative to respect individual values and human dignity, providing more humane and targeted support for employment and migration.

Fiscal Sustainability, Social Ecological Economics, and the Green Transition: Could Italy Meet the EU Climate Goals?

Rosa Canelli
,
University of Sannio
Giuseppe Fontana
,
University of Leeds and University of Sannio
Riccardo Realfonzo
,
University of Sannio
Marco Veronese Passarella
,
University of L’Aquila

Abstract

The European Union (EU) regards climate change and environmental degradation as existential threats to European citizens and the world. For this reason, the EU has launched the European Green Deal, aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 while boosting the economies of its member states through green technological innovation. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan implemented by the Italian government, along with the reception of the REPower EU Plan, is precisely aimed at fostering the transition towards a greener economic model, reducing energy consumption, and diversifying Italy’s energy supplies. This paper aims to discuss the effects of such measures on the Italian economy from a heterodox perspective grounded on Social Ecological Economics by using an input-output (IO) stock-flow consistent (SFC) model to create and compare alternative green transition scenarios for Italy. The paper emphasizes the expected impacts of alternative policies on major economic, social, political, and environmental variables – including but not limited to economic growth, income distribution, public finances, employment, and greenhouse gas emissions.
JEL Classifications
  • P5 - Comparative Economic Systems
  • F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business