Divorce in Turkey: Determinants of Rising Union Instability
Abstract
This paper analyzes the determinants of rise in marriage dissolution in Turkey. Divorce rate began rising much later than advanced countries in Turkey, but it showed a notable increase during the past decades. Crude divorce rate (CDR) increased from 0.27 in 1970 to 2.1 in 2021. This increase can be attributed to significant demographic changes including increase in marriage age, lower fertility, higher education, and changing gender norms. Moreover, two legislative developments played an important role by expanding women rights: 1988 no-default divorce law and the 2001 amendments of the Turkish Civil Code. This paper identifies micro determinants of probability of divorce using five waves of Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys (1998, 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018). In addition to commonly studied predictors of divorce (individual and union characteristics), the role of women’s gender role attitudes, their tolerance of domestic violence and husbands’ controlling behavior are included in the analysis. The findings provide evidence for the masculinist restoration thesis as opposed to the second demographic transition and gender revolution theories. It is argued that the increase in divorce rates can be understood in the context of rising pressures from the politics of masculinist restoration on one hand, and women’s resistance to conform to the traditional gender roles on the other.Keywords: Divorce, gender norms, masculinist restoration, Turkey
JEL Classifications Codes: J12, B54, Z13