The Real Effects of Public Organization
Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021 12:15 PM - 2:15 PM (EST)
- Chair: Guido Friebel, Goethe University-Frankfurt
The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime
AbstractThis paper evaluates how the introduction of professional police forces affected crime using two natural experiments in history: the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police (the first police force ever tasked with deterring crime) and the 1839 to 1856 county roll-out of forces in England and Wales. The London Met analysis relies on two complementary data sources. The first, trial data with geocoded crime locations, allows for a difference-in-differences estimation that finds a significant and persistent reduction in robbery but not homicide or burglary. A pre-post analysis of the second source, daily police reports of both cleared and uncleared crime incidents, finds a significant reduction in all violent crimes but offsetting changes in uncleared (decrease) and cleared (increase) property crimes. These(local) reductions in crime are not just due to crime displacement but represent true decreases in overall crime.Difference-in-difference analyses of the county roll-out find that only sufficiently large forces, measured by the population to force ratio, significantly reduced crime. The results are robust to controlling for spill-over effects of neighboring forces.
The Economic Consequences of Political Hierarchy: Evidence from Regime Changes in China, AD1000-2000
AbstractAdministrative centers, connecting subnational units with the central government, play an important part in a country’s political hierarchy. While the literature has discussed the roles of administrative centers, several important questions remain unanswered: What would happen if the status of administrative centers changed? Do administrative centers gain success primarily due to an increase in public employment? We argue that China, with its long history, a centralizedpolitical system, and multiple regime changes, provides us an opportunity to investigate these issues. Using prefecture-level panel data and exploiting regime changes during AD1000-2000, we find that gaining and losing provincial capital status led to the rise and decline of different prefectures, measured by population density and urbanization. Moreover, political hierarchy shapes economic development via both political channels (measured by public employment) and market channels (reflected by transportation networks), the latter of which suggests aggregate cost for provincial market access. More broadly, our results serve as new evidence on how politics shapes economic geography and illustrate the effectiveness and cost of a centralized political system.
University of Frankfurt
University of California-Berkeley
London School of Economics
- H1 - Structure and Scope of Government
- N0 - General