Association for Comparative Economics Poster Session
Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM
- Chair: Gerard Roland, University of California-Berkeley
Credit and Financial Cycles as Predictors of Business Cycles: Example of EAEU Countries
AbstractThe paper studies credit and financial cycles of the three largest countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. We use both widely used in the literature measures of financial cycle and suggest our own measures accounting for the specificities of these countries (resource dependence and a large role of the government sector in the economy). To check results for robustness we use different filtering methods, different methods of locating peaks and troughs, consider individual indicators and their combinations with varying weights, as well as change sample size. We have established that the most widely used measure of financial cycle – combination of private sector credit, its ratio to GDP and property price index – delivers the most robust results and can be used for the countries in question. For Russia and Kazakhstan, where financial sector depends on oil prices, inclusion of current account balance in the measure of financial cycle produces a potential early warning indicator of the future financial cycle booms. For Belarus and Kazakhstan using private sector credit or total credit produces very much the same results, while for Russia these measures substantially differ suggesting that increasing importance of credit to government-related sector demands a different measure of financial cycle.
Structural Economic Reforms, Product Market Liberalization and Corruption: Unintended Consequences?
The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Ecological Footprint of Nations
AbstractWe study the impact of sector-level FDI on four distinct ecological footprints (EF), Consumption EF, Production EF, Imports EF, and Exports EF, compiled by the Global Footprint Network. We estimate a model incorporating an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and differentiating across country-level of development. We obtain a rich set of results. First, High Income countries tend to experience consumption-related ecological impact of FDI, whereas Low and Middle Income countries tend to experience a production-related ecological impact of FDI. Second, Middle Income countries tend to bear the Exports EF impact of FDI, while Low Income countries bear domestic Production EF impact of FDI. Third, in wealthier nations, the High Income and Middle Income countries FDI impacts their Imports EF, and in poorer nations- the Middle Income and Low Income economies, FDI impacts their Exports EF. Forth, in High Income countries, financial services FDI can decrease the Production EF, but in Low Income countries, it increases it. Fifth, non-financial services FDI produce more ecosystems’ degradation than manufacturing FDI.
The Impact of High-speed Railway on Land Market
Russian: A Mercantilist Economy
Russia Since 1995: Natural Gas, Catching Up and Informality
The Varying Dimensions of Domestic Credit Expansion and Capital Flows in Post-socialist Transition: Challenges to Macro Policy
AbstractThis project develops empirical assessment of the macroeconomic forces behind recent domestic private credit growth in the post-socialist transition economies contrasting the before and after global financial crisis scenarios across the net exporter and net importer nations in Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union. Relying on panel study and panel VAR approaches the project contrasts economic openness, credit availability, and domestic financial deepening across the sample. Multiplicity of outcomes reveals common problems of economic structure, net foreign capital flows, macroeconomic policy, as well as other determinants in the context of open financial economy uncertainty. The little researched in recent literature country sample deserves special attention, as some dynamics are compatible with broader emerging markets narratives.
Regulatory Quality, Financial Integration and Equity Cost of Capital
Bank Interest Rate Setting in the Euro Area During the Great Recession
Demand Side or Supply Side Stabilization Policies in a Small Euro Area Economy: A Case Study for Slovenia
Public Goods, the Distribution of Income and International GDP Comparisons
Half Sky over China: Women’s Political Participation and Sex Imbalances, 1950-90
A Stylized Model of China's Growth Since 1978
AbstractThis paper develops a stylized multi-sector growth model of China’s economy. We choose a neoclassical modeling approach and focus on the reform process under Deng Xiaoping as China’s main growth driver since 1978. Following the literature, we distinguish between three major reform periods, namely the agricultural (1978–1984), the industrial (1984–1992) and the foreign-trade reform period (1992–present). Reflecting the neoclassical view, our model explains China’s growth process since 1978 as a sequence of transitory growth phases generated by the reforms. We discuss our model’s implications for China’s future growth and the middle-income trap as well as growth-stimulating policies in China
Inequality, Good Governance and Endemic Corruption
- P5 - Comparative Economic Systems
- P0 - General