2017 Annual Meeting

Chicago IL
January 6 – 8

The 2017 Annual Meeting was held in Chicago, IL (January 6-8, 2017 - Friday, Saturday, & Sunday). View Photos from the meeting.

Webcasts from selected AEA sessions and AEA Poster Presenter Videos are available, compliments of the AEA.

Friday, January 6

AEA Poster Session

Poster Session

Friday, Jan. 6, 2017 – Sunday, Jan. 8, 2017

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Columbus Hall
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Poster title: The Distribution of Earnings Losses: Evidence From Displaced Workers Survey 1994-2014
  • Abstract: A large literature shows that workers, on average, suffer large and persistent earnings losses when displaced from a job. However, little attention has been devoted to the distribution of those losses. Using the 1994-2014 Current Population Survey displaced worker surveys, I find that averages, whether from simple summary statistics or calculated as expectations using ordinary least squares (OLS), give a misleading and incomplete picture. The average loss in earnings in my sample is 29%, compared with a median loss of just 12%. Using OLS, each year of tenure is associated with an additional 1.3% reduction in earnings. Quantile regression estimates reveal that this magnitude of effect corresponds to the 80th percentile, and that the effect of tenure at the median is just 0.7%. OLS estimates of the effect of changing industries and occupations are also considerably larger than quantile regressions at or below the median. I also attempt to correct for possible endogeneity in the choice to switch industry and occupation. Two-stage least squares estimates yield even larger estimated negative effects of changing industry and occupation than OLS, but instrumental variables quantile regression estimates, using the model developed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005), suggest that the marginal effects on such losses are highly concentrated among relatively few workers.

Labor Markets and Crime (J2, K4)

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 6, 2017 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Crystal A
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Steven Levitt, University of Chicago
  • Paper title: Does "Ban the Box" Help or Hurt Low-Skilled Workers?: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden
  • Author: Benjamin Hansen, University of Oregon

Peer Effects in the Criminal Justice System (K4)

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 6, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Plaza B
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Philip Cook, Duke University and NBER
  • Discussant: Benjamin Hansen, University of Oregon and NBER

Environment and Health (Q5, I1)

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 6, 2017 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Acapulco
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Meredith Fowlie, University of California-Berkeley
  • Paper title: Does Forest Loss Increase Human Disease? Evidence From 21st Century Nigeria
  • Abstract: The loss of tropical forests is of particular concern to human health. Mounting scientific evidence demonstrates a complex chain of ecological changes after forest clearing that magnifies the risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, including malaria, Yellow fever, dengue, and more recently Zika virus. Links between deforestation and the incidence of human malaria have been shown, for example, in Brazil (Olson et al. 2010) and in Malaysia (Fornace et al. 2016). To our knowledge, however, only one paper provides causal evidence from Indonesia (Garg 2015). We extend this new literature to study the links between deforestation, malaria, and child and maternal health in Nigeria that lost nearly 80 percent of its primary forest. Nigeria is home to one-fifth of Africa’s population, 97 percent of whom are at risk for malaria. An estimated 100 million malaria cases are reported annually, with over 300,000 annual deaths due to the disease (US Embassy 2011). We estimate the causal impact of deforestation on several measures of child and maternal health and mortality using temporal and spatial variation of deforestation from 1990 to 2013. Our estimation strategy involves geolinking a new high-resolution dataset of global forest change based on time-series analysis of Landsat images at a spatial resolution of 30 meters (Hansen et al. 2013) to household-level health data from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 1990, 2003, 2008, 2010, and 2013. We use several empirical strategies to identify the impact of deforestation on malaria outbreaks, taking into account endogenous location and confounding economic trends. A growing body of literature demonstrates the causal link between malnutrition and health with performance in school and later in the labor market (Strauss and Thomas 1998; Glewwe and Miguel 2008). We are able to assess such longer-term impacts of environmental changes on human health and wellbeing. Q56,Q23,I15.

Saturday, January 7

Applications of Structural Estimation to Finance (G1)

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Suite 3
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Toni Whited, University of Michigan
  • Paper title: Entry and Exit in the Market for IPO Underwriting
  • Abstract: Controversy surrounds the question of whether underwriters collude in the market for IPOs. Some researchers identify the pattern of spreads (Chen and Ritter, 2000) and the reliance on indirect compensation through underpricing (Kang and Lowery, 2014) as evidence for implicit collusion among underwriters. Others (Hansen, 2001) suggest that efficient contracts can explain the pattern of spreads, while the absence of obvious barriers to entry in the IPO market makes collusion unsustainable. We investigate this question by estimating the entry costs (and exit payoffs) in the IPO market. We proceed by largely following the standard procedure for structural estimation of entry costs developed in the industrial organization literature. Specifically, we apply the estimation method for continuous time entry-exit games developed in Arciadiacono, Bayer, Blevins, and Ellickson (2015). We model the payoff to completing an IPO as a direct benefit from spread income and an indirect benefit from underpricing the issue. Underwriters compete in a potentially collusive auction for IPOs that arrive according to a Poisson process which depends on economic conditions, thus generating an expected flow payoff for being in the market. Expected market share for a given underwriter depends on that underwriter's stochastically evolving reputation and an index of reputation of other active underwriters. Entry choices then identify entry costs, which provides evidence of the extent to which incumbent firms are able to exclude new competition.

Are Advanced Countries Facing Stagnation? (F4, E6)

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Ballroom CD North
Hosted By: Society of Policy Modeling & American Economic Association
  • Chair: Dominick Salvatore, Fordham University
  • Paper title: Long-Term Trend Stagnation or Debt Supercycle?
  • Abstract: During periods of extended slow growth, particularly after financial crises, there is often a tendency to extrapolate poor productivity and growth performance far into the future. Karl Marx wrote as the first industrial revolution was fading, but just before the second industrial revolution began; Alvin Hansen wrote at the end of the Great Depression. This paper show that the sustained slowdown in advanced-country growth since 2007 is fully consistent with a debt supercycle that began in the US, then moved to the Eurozone debt crisis, and has now moved to China and Asia, and will eventually come to an end.

Monetary and Fiscal Issues (E6, H0)

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM

Sheraton Grand Chicago, Arkansas
Hosted By: Chinese Economic Association in North America & American Economic Association
  • Chair: Gary Hansen University of California-Los Angeles
  • Paper title: Reforming Medicaid Long Term Care Insurance
  • Author: Gary Hansen, University of California-Los Angeles

Sunday, January 8

Driving Social Capital, Sectoral Development, Income Distribution and Banking Practices With Effective Policies to Achieve Economic Growth in African Economies (O1, E5)

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 8, 2017 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Ogden
Hosted By: African Finance and Economics Association
  • Chair: Bichaka Fayissa, African Finance and Economic Association
  • Paper title: Empirical Evidence of Nonlinear Effects of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in a Developing Country
  • Abstract: The paper examines nonlinear effects of monetary policy reaction function using 1978-2015 annual sample with threshold autoregression (TAR) and traditional models to find out how Bank of Ghana (BOG) reacts to achieve its primary goals when inflation rate deepens. Estimating linear functions to capture temporary monetary policy reaction functions to assess reactions of Central Banks’ monetary policy, especially in developing countries, often suffer from serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and functional instability problems. We remedied these problems by using interest rate to minimize a quadratic nonlinear loss function to derive an asymmetric TAR model. We then identified logged price as the threshold variable, with one threshold value in a two inflation regimes from designated output and inflation threshold variables, and two threshold values in a three inflation regimes when exchange rate is included in the designated threshold variables. In all inflation regimes, the BOG responds to external account deficits, and in a low inflation regime, it responds to both inflation and output. In the moderate inflation regime, it responds to only output. In the high inflation regime, it responds to only inflation in the two inflation regimes, and to both output and depreciation in the three inflation regimes. Both Engle-Granger and asymmetric error correction estimates indicate that temporary deviations of interest rates from a long-run equilibrium are symmetrical, with the speed of adjustment being fast in the former, and in the latter case, where the negative phase of deviations is persistent and seems to be temporarily asymmetrical. Furthermore, both threshold and Engle-Granger cointegration tests are supported by Johansen cointegration tests. Thus, the symmetric policy response results in both short term and long-run are consistent with the central bank’s public stance of pursuing inflation targeting policy to reduce inflation, even though it is ineffective in moderate and high inflation regimes.

Learning From Data in Economics (C0)

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 8, 2017 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Ballroom AB
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: James J. Heckman, University of Chicago
  • Discussant: Lars Hansen, University of Chicago

Isis and Conflict (F5)

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 8, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Swissotel Chicago, St Gallen 3
Hosted By: Peace Science Society International & American Economic Association
  • Chair: Carlos Seiglie, Rutgers University-Newark